Mauro Baranzini GianDemetrio Marangoni Richard Stone: an Annotated Bibliography Mauro Baranzini GianDemetrio Marangoni University of Lugano and University of Verona and Accademia dei Lincei - Rome University of Lugano Richard Stone: an Annotated Bibliography USI First edition: 2015 ISBN 978-88-6101-014-7 Copyright © 2014 Università della Svizzera italiana CH-6900 Lugano The ‘Stone Collection’ at the Central Library of the University of Lugano comprises Richard Stone’s complete works in the field of economics. The collection consists of approximately 200 articles and books, published between 1936 and 1991, the year of his death, as well as some posthumous works, manuscripts and secondary literature. Much of the material comes from a donation by Richard Stone’s wife, Giovanna. The remaining part has been assembled and made available by the authors of this bibliography and by the Library of the University of Lugano (BUL). This Annotated Bibliography is also part of the Collection. It presents brief comments on each item in the collection, biographical notes and some more general considerations. The authors would like to thank Domenico Rossignoli for bibliographical research and Nigel and Caroline Webb for text revision. Particular thanks are due to the Director of the University Library, Giuseppe Origgi, for his valuable collaboration with this project. 1 The task of presenting the contributions of Richard Stone to economics, and in particular to the theory of income distribution, is facilitated, to some extent, by the existence of a number of complete lists of his publications, issued in books and international journals [see, for instance, Bibliography of Richard Stone’s Works, 1936-1984, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics , Vol. 87, No. 1, 1985, pp. 33-43; The ET Interview: Professor Sir Richard Stone (interviewer M. H. Pesaran). Econometric Theory, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1991, pp. 85-123; Richard Stone, Some British Empiricists in the Social Sciences 1650-1900. Cambridge University Press, 1997, pp. 441-463]. In this annotated bibliography, we refer to the bibliography provided by Richard Stone on the occasion of the interview with M. H. Pesaran published in Econometric Theory in 1991. The bibliography is organised according to the date at which items were written rather than the date of publication. 1913 John Richard Nicholas Stone was born in London, on 30 August 1913, the only son of Gilbert and Elsie Stone. 1932 After attending Westminster School, he entered Gonville & Caius College, Cambridge in 1932, achieving 1 st class honours in the Law Tripos, part 1, in 1933. Not being interested in this subject, which he had only chosen to please his father, he changed to Economics. In his autobiography for The Nobel Prizes 1984 [192] Stone explains his switch from law to economics in these terms: ‘At that time the world was in the depth of the great depression and my motive for wanting to change subject was the belief, bred of youthful ignorance and optimism, that if only economics were better understood, the world would be a better place’. The College had no teaching Fellow in the subject but he was supervised by Richard Kahn and Gerald Shove of King’s College and J. W. F. Rowe of Pembroke College. He achieved a First in Economics Part II in 1935, probably influencing the College, as Pasinetti suggests, in its decision to appoint its first teaching Fellow 2 in Economics, John Hicks, who joined the College in October 1935. But by then Stone had gone down [Pasinetti, 1992, p. 113] . 1936 001. A study of costs (with W.A. Tweddle). Econometrica 4 (1936): 226-241. [ Access the article via JSTOR: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/1905421 ] [ Also available at BUL as offprint, see: http://lumen.sbu.usi.ch/bul:bul_aleph000747241 ] In 1936 Stone publishes his first article, in collaboration with W. A. Tweddle [001]. This is a study of eight British industries, determining the mathematical functional relationships between volume of employment and volume of production. From the very beginning Stone is attracted to applied economics. He believed that economics was not sufficiently quantitative and that there was a gap between theory and facts. According to him, theory must be used to interpret facts and facts must be the source of economic reasoning. In 1936 Richard Stone marries Winifred Jenkins, who had also read economics at Cambridge. 1937 002. Trends (with W.M. Stone). Monthly articles in Industry Illustrated , June- December 1937. [ Available at BUL as photocopy, see: http://lumen.sbu.usi.ch/bul:bul_aleph000747241 ] From June 1937 to May 1939, Stone and Winifred Jenkins wrote the column entitled ‘Trends ’ [002, 004, 007] in the monthly publication Industry Illustrated . The column, which had been the responsibility of Colin Clark prior to his departure to Australia, provided information, statistics and comment on the British and worldwide economy. In Stone’s words: ‘It could be considered as a very modest forerunner of the British official monthly Economic Trends which began to appear after the war’ [Stone & Pesaran, 1991, p. 90]. 3 Nevertheless, this was an important experience for Stone. The information collected was used in his early articles as well as in Trends and his call to the Ministry of Economic Warfare, at the outbreak of the Second World War, probably owes much to his consequent growing reputation. Issues: May 1937, pp. 10 – 14. June 1937, pp. 19 – 24. July 1937, pp. 19 – 26. In-depth analysis: Local Economic Movements No. 1. The Regional Development of Employment. September 1937, pp. 17 – 28. In-depth analysis: Local Economic Movements No. 2. The Regional Development of House Building. October 1937, pp. 12 – 20. In-depth analysis: The General Economic Outlook; Local Economic Movements No. 3. The Regional Development of Factory Building. November 1937, pp. 13 - 21. In-depth analysis: The General Economic Outlook; Car Sales and the Motor Show; The Rise of the Motor Trade. December 1937, pp. 12 – 22. In-depth analysis: The General Economic Outlook; Local Economic Movements No. 4. The Regional Growth of Building Labour. A Problem of the Future. 1938 003. The marginal propensity to consume and the multiplier (with W.M. Stone). The Review of Economic Studies VI (1938): 1-24. [ Access the article via JSTOR: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/2967535 ] [ Also available at BUL as offprint, see: http://lumen.sbu.usi.ch/bul:bul_aleph000747241 ] During the same period, Stone and his wife publish three articles in economic journals. The first one [003] provides a series of estimates of the marginal propensity to consume and its effect on the Keynesian multipliers. The marginal propensity to consume is estimated for several countries by three different methods: the budget method, Kahn’s method of leakages and the historical method. 4 The starting point is Keynes’ ‘fundamental psychological law’ [J. M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , Macmillan, 1936] that ‘men are disposed, as a rule and on the average, to increase their consumption as their income increases, but not by as much as the increase in their income’. Stone wonders if Keynes’ hypothesis is not too simplistic and if there are other determinants of consumption in addition to income and its variations. In particular, Stone investigates Staehle’s hypothesis [H. Staehle, Short-Period Variations in the Distribution of Incomes, Review of Economic Statistics , 1937] that the distribution of income also plays an important role in determining consumption. Stone concludes, however, that ‘This is a very interesting analysis, but it seems that its conclusions do not hold universally, and before the end of this paper we propose to exhibit calculations based on an entirely different method which suggest that changes in the distribution of incomes are not important in general for the community as a whole or are highly correlated with changes in aggregate money income’ [003, p. 8]. 004. Trends (with W.M. Stone). Monthly articles in Industry Illustrated , January- December 1938. [ Available at BUL as photocopy, see: http://lumen.sbu.usi.ch/bul:bul_aleph000747241 ] January 1938, pp. 10 – 15. In-depth analysis: The Rally in Confidence – Temporary or Permanent? February 1938, pp. 18 – 24. In-depth analysis: Can We Afford Unemployment? March 1938, pp. 16 – 23. In-depth analysis: Changing Trends in 1937. [April 1938, pp. 12-14. Article in Industry Illustrated: Fundamental Statistics in the Light of Modern Economics.] April 1938, pp. 16 – 22. In-depth analysis: Foreign Trade in Prosperity and Recession. May 1938, pp. 15 – 21. In-depth analysis: Has Confidence Collapsed? 27 th May 1938, pp. 15 – 20. In-depth analysis: Is There a Practical Case for Protection? 24 th June 1938, pp. 17 – 23. In-depth analysis: The Next Six Months in Industry. 22 nd July 1938, pp. 15 – 21. In-depth analysis: Is Wall Street Right? 26 th August 1938, pp. 16 – 19. 5 23 rd Septemper 1938, pp. 12 – 18. In-depth analysis: Autumn Prospects. 28 th October 1938, pp. 16 – 21. In-depth analysis: America Steps Forward. 25 th November 1938, pp. 18 – 24. In-depth analysis: Where is the Slump? 23 rd December 1938, pp. 18 – 23. In-depth analysis: The Anatomy of Employment. 1939 005. Indices of industrial output (with W.M. Stone). The Economic Journal XLIX 195 (1939): 477-485. [ Access the article via JSTOR: http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/2224804 ] [ Also available at BUL as offprint, see: http://lumen.sbu.usi.ch/bul:bul_aleph000747241 ] The second article [005] presents a comparison between different indices of British industrial output. 006. Pitfalls in assessing the state of trade (with W.M. Stone). In British Management Yearbook 1939 , pp. 21-78. [ Available at BUL as photocopy, see: http://lumen.sbu.usi.ch/bul:bul_aleph000747241 ] A third one [006] draws attention to the risks in assessing the state of trade.