NP 2010-2029 Integrated Resource Plan for The Empire District Electric Company Volume III Supply-Side Resources Analysis (4 CSR 240-22.040) September 2010 NP Table of Contents S.0 Volume III Summary..........................................................................................S-1 S.1 Existing Resources..................................................................................S-1 S.2 Assumptions ...........................................................................................S-2 S.3 Conventional Future Supply-Side Resources .........................................S-3 S.4 Renewable Future Supply-Side Resources.............................................S-4 S.5 Transmission and Smart Grid .................................................................S-4 S.6 Screening Analysis .................................................................................S-5 1.0 Introduction.............................................................................................................1 1.1 Background.................................................................................................1 1.2 Regulatory Requirements............................................................................1 1.2.1 4 CSR 240-22.040 Supply-Side Resources Analysis ........................1 1.2.2 Followup to the 2007 IRP Unanimous Stipulation and Agreement (dated May 6, 2008) ........................................................................7 2.0 Existing and Committed Supply-Side Resources ...................................................9 2.1 Existing Resources............................................................................................9 2.1.1 Asbury....................................................................................................11 2.1.2 Riverton..................................................................................................11 2.1.3 Iatan........................................................................................................12 2.1.4 State Line...............................................................................................13 2.1.5 Empire Energy Center............................................................................13 2.1.6 Ozark Beach...........................................................................................14 2.1.7 Plum Point..............................................................................................14 2.1.8 Purchased Power....................................................................................14 2.1.8.1 Conventional.................................................................................14 2.1.8.2 Renewables...................................................................................15 2.1.9 Retirements ............................................................................................15 2.1.10 Emission Controls on Existing Units...................................................15 2.1.11 Existing Plant Upgrades.......................................................................15 2.2 Committed Resources .....................................................................................16 3.0 Assumptions..........................................................................................................19 3.1 Fuel Usage ......................................................................................................19 3.2 Coal Price Forecast .........................................................................................20 3.3 Natural Gas Price Forecast..............................................................................23 3.3.1 Natural Gas Price Forecasting Methodology.........................................24 3.3.2 Natural Gas Risk Management Policy...................................................25 3.4 FuelOil Price Forecast.....................................................................................25 3.5 Market Price Forecast .....................................................................................25 3.6 Capacity Margin..............................................................................................27 3.7 Financial Parameters.......................................................................................27 3.8 Emission Costs................................................................................................27 Empire District Electric 2010 IRP i Supply-Side Resources Analysis NP Table of Contents (continued) 4.0 New Conventional Resources...............................................................................32 4.1 Supercritical Coal............................................................................................32 4.2 Combustion Turbine .......................................................................................33 4.3 Combined Cycle..............................................................................................34 4.4 Nuclear............................................................................................................35 4.5 Distributed Generation....................................................................................36 4.6 Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle........................................................36 5.0 New Renewable Resources...................................................................................38 5.1 Renewable Portfolio Standards.......................................................................38 5.1.1 RPS – Missouri ......................................................................................38 5.1.2 RPS – Kansas.........................................................................................39 5.1.3 RPS – Oklahoma....................................................................................40 5.2 Renewable Resources .....................................................................................41 5.2.1 Wind.......................................................................................................41 5.2.1.1 Wind – Missouri...........................................................................42 5.2.1.2 Wind – Kansas..............................................................................44 5.2.1.3 Wind – Oklahoma.........................................................................46 5.2.1.4 Wind – Arkansas...........................................................................49 5.2.2 Biomass..................................................................................................50 5.2.2.1 Biomass – Chicken/Turkey Waste................................................51 5.2.2.2 Biomass – Landfill Gas.................................................................51 5.2.2.3 Biomass – Additional Biomass.....................................................54 5.2.3 Solar.......................................................................................................55 6.0 Transmission.........................................................................................................59 6.1 Losses..............................................................................................................60 6.2 Smart Grid.......................................................................................................61 7.0 Screening Analysis................................................................................................62 7.1 Base Environmental Costs ..............................................................................62 7.2 Probable Environmental Costs........................................................................64 Appendix A – SPP Transmission Expansion Plan Projects.........................................68 Appendix B – Empire District STEP Projects .............................................................77 Appendix C – Empire Transmission and Distribution Construction Budget ..............79 Abbreviations...............................................................................................................92 Empire District Electric 2010 IRP ii Supply-Side Resources Analysis NP List of Tables Table S-1. Natural Gas Price Forecast ($/MMBtu) ..................................................S-2 Table S-2. Emission Costs – Base Environmental....................................................S-3 Table 1-1. Clarification – Transmission and Distribution Planning.............................4 Table 1-2. Summary of Compliance with Reporting Requirements for IRP Rule for Supply-Side Resource Analysis (4 CSR 240-22.040(9))...................................7 Table 1-3. Summary of Compliance with the Requirements of the 2007 IRP Unanimous Stipulation and Agreement.............................................................8 Table 2-1. Empire Supply-Side Resources – Existing and Committed......................10 Table 2-2. Load and Capacity Summary 2010-2029 with Existing Resources, Committed Resources and Potential Retirements and Contract Expirations with Based Load Forecast for this IRP and no Contemplated Additions (MW)...............................................................................................18 Table 3-1. Empire’s Historical Delivered Fuel Costs ($/MMBtu) .............................19 Table 3-2. Asbury Coal Price Forecast ($/MMBtu) ...................................................21 Table 3-3. Riverton Coal Price Forecast ($/MMBtu) .................................................21 Table