Luton & Central Bedfordshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment Refresh 2014 Report of Findings June 2014 Opinion Research Services | The Strand • Swansea • SA1 1AF | 01792 535300 | www.ors.org.uk | [email protected] Opinion Research Services | Luton & Central Bedfordshire SHMA Refresh 2014 – Report of Findings June 2014 Opinion Research Services The Strand, Swansea SA1 1AF Jonathan Lee | David Harrison | Nigel Moore enquiries: 01792 535300 · [email protected] · www.ors.org.uk © Copyright June 2014 2 Opinion Research Services | Luton & Central Bedfordshire SHMA Refresh 2014 – Report of Findings June 2014 Contents Summary of Key Findings ................................................................................... 6 Luton and Central Bedfordshire SHMA Refresh 2014 6 Key Challenges ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Private Rented Sector .................................................................................................................................. 6 Local Economy ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Housing Delivery .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Benefit Reform ............................................................................................................................................ 7 Duty to Co-operate ...................................................................................................................................... 7 Housing Market Area .................................................................................................................................. 7 Population and Household Growth ............................................................................................................. 7 Market Signals ............................................................................................................................................. 8 Objectively Assessed Need .......................................................................................................................... 9 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................. 10 1. Introducing the Study ................................................................................... 11 Background to the project and wider policy context 11 Project Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 11 What is a Strategic Housing Market Assessment? .............................................................................. 11 National Policy and Strategy Context ........................................................................................................ 11 SHMA Guidance .................................................................................................................................. 12 Duty to Co-operate.............................................................................................................................. 12 Developing the Strategic Housing Market Assessment ............................................................................ 13 Local Policy and Strategy Context ............................................................................................................. 13 Joint Core Strategy 2008-2026 ............................................................................................................ 13 Other Strategies: Luton Borough Council ........................................................................................... 13 Other Strategies: Central Bedfordshire Council .................................................................................. 16 2. Housing Market Area ................................................................................... 20 Identifying the local functional housing markets 20 Guidance.................................................................................................................................................... 20 The Local Authority Boundaries ................................................................................................................ 22 Functional Relationships between Settlements ........................................................................................ 22 Key Statistics for the HMA Study Area ...................................................................................................... 25 Land Distribution by Local Authority................................................................................................... 25 Migration Patterns .............................................................................................................................. 26 Travel to Work Patterns ...................................................................................................................... 29 3 Opinion Research Services | Luton & Central Bedfordshire SHMA Refresh 2014 – Report of Findings June 2014 Geography of Housing Market Areas in England (NHPAU/CURDS; 2010) ................................................ 31 Valuation Office Agency Broad Rental Market Areas ............................................................................... 34 The Housing Market Area - Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 35 3. Luton Population Trends .............................................................................. 37 An evidence base for demographic projections 37 Official Population Estimates .................................................................................................................... 37 Components of Population Change .......................................................................................................... 40 National Insurance Registrations to Non-UK Nationals ............................................................................ 42 GP patients previously living outside the UK: “Flag 4” registrations ........................................................ 43 Estimating International In Migration ....................................................................................................... 44 Estimating International Out Migration .................................................................................................... 45 Population Estimates based on Adjusted International Migration ........................................................... 46 Estimating UK Migration ........................................................................................................................... 48 Adjusted Population Estimates ................................................................................................................. 49 4. Demographic Projections ............................................................................. 51 Establishing the future need and demand for housing 51 Official Population and Household Projections ........................................................................................ 52 Demographic Projections for Luton borough ............................................................................................ 53 Refining the Assumptions for Luton .................................................................................................... 55 Reviewing Changes in Age Structure ................................................................................................... 57 Establishing Assumptions for the Baseline Projection for Luton ........................................................ 58 Sensitivity Testing Future Migration to and from Luton ..................................................................... 58 Establishing Household Projections for Luton .................................................................................... 60 Luton’s Future Household Growth ...................................................................................................... 63 Demographic Projections for Central Bedfordshire .................................................................................. 64 Future Population Projections for Central Bedfordshire .................................................................... 66 Establishing Assumptions for the Baseline Projection for Central Bedfordshire ................................ 69 Sensitivity Testing Future Migration to and from Central Bedfordshire ............................................ 70 Establishing Household Projections for Central Bedfordshire ............................................................ 70 Combined Household Growth for Luton and Central Bedfordshire ......................................................... 73 5. Objectively Assessed Need ........................................................................... 76 Developing the projections to establish housing numbers 76 Housing Need based on Household Projections ....................................................................................... 76 Market Signals ..........................................................................................................................................