THE FUTURE OF MIGRATION TO EUROPE: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON MIGRATION SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS Funded by the European Union The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning its frontiers or boundaries. IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. ______________________ This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. Ares (2017) 5627812-770121. This document has been prepared for the European Commission. However, it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. ______________________ This report was produced as part of the Horizon 2020-funded CrossMigration project. Visit https://migrationresearch.com for more information. Publisher: International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O. Box 17 1211 Geneva 19 Switzerland Tel.: +49 30 278 778 21 Fax: +49 30 278 778 98 Email: [email protected] Website: www.iom.int Cover photo: © Agence OLLOWEB on Unsplash. _____________________________________________ ISBN 978-92-9068-845-7 (PDF) © 2020 International Organization for Migration (IOM) _____________________________________________ Suggested citation: Sohst, R., J. Tjaden, H. de Valk and S. Melde (2020). The Future of Migration to Europe: A Systematic Review of the Literature on Migration Scenarios and Forecasts. International Organization for Migration, Geneva, and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, the Hague. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. PUB2020/006/EL THE FUTURE OF MIGRATION TO EUROPE: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON MIGRATION SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS Rhea Ravenna Sohst Jasper Tjaden Helga de Valk Susanne Melde April 2020 Funded by the European Union THE FUTURE OF MIGRATION TO EUROPE: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON MIGRATION SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS Authors: Rhea Ravenna Sohst, Jasper Tjaden, Helga de Valk and Susanne Melde Effective migration management requires some degree of anticipation of the magnitude and nature of future flows. In response to these needs, two types of approaches have emerged in the literature in recent years: (a) migration forecasts, which provide quantitative estimates of future migration, and (b) migration scenarios, which develop different storylines and thereby emphasize flexibility of thought on future migration. This report presents the results of a systematic literature review of migration forecasts and scenarios. Over 200 relevant publications were screened to summarize the results of the studies and information about the context in which they were produced. The report outlines key definitions, methodological approaches and lessons learned from the evidence produced over the past several decades. It is a comprehensive overview that will be of interest to both scientists and practitioners who wish to navigate this growing field. THE FUTURE OF MIGRATION TO EUROPE: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON MIGRATION SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors are grateful to Eduardo Acostamadiedo (IOM’s GMDAC), George Groenewold, PhD (NIDI), Prof. Jakub Bijak, PhD (University of Southampton), and Frank Laczko, PhD (IOM’s GMDAC) who reviewed sections of this report, complemented the literature inventory with additional entries, and offered support and guidance. In addition, we would like to thank all participants of the workshop, “Future European Migration Scenarios in 2030: Plausible, Probable, and Relevant?”, which took place on 9 October 2019 in Brussels, during which a preliminary version of the report was presented and discussed: Prof. Andreu Domingo i Valls, PhD, Prof. Philip Rees, PhD, Prof. Birte Nienaber, PhD, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, PhD, Marcin Stonawski, PhD, Ayla Bonfiglio, PhD, Marcello Carammia, PhD, Giampaolo Lanzieri, PhD, Gregor Reisch, Alice Szczepanikova, PhD, Fabrizio Natale, Giacomo Solano, PhD, Teddy Wilkin, PhD, Kate Cornford and Prof. Carsten Kessler, PhD. III THE FUTURE OF MIGRATION TO EUROPE: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE ON MIGRATION SCENARIOS AND FORECASTS CONTENTS Acknowledgements ..........................................................................................................................................................iii List of tables and figures..................................................................................................................................................v Acronyms ..............................................................................................................................................................................vi Executive summary .........................................................................................................................................................vii 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Definitions .................................................................................................................................................................. 3 3. Methodology ............................................................................................................................................................ 7 4. Results: Migration scenarios .........................................................................................................................11 4.1. Why now? .......................................................................................................................................................11 4.2. Who develops migration scenarios? ..................................................................................................11 4.3. What are the time horizons of migration scenarios? ...................................................................12 4.4. What types of migration scenarios exist? .........................................................................................13 4.5. Migration drivers in scenarios and forecasts ..................................................................................15 4.6. Along which dimensions are migration scenarios structured? .................................................17 4.6.1. International cooperation and European Union integration .....................................18 4.6.2. Economic development.............................................................................................................18 4.6.3. Environment ...................................................................................................................................19 4.6.4. Social development .....................................................................................................................19 4.6.5. Public opinion ...............................................................................................................................20 4.6.6. Migration policy ............................................................................................................................20 4.7. What methods are used to develop migration scenarios? ........................................................21 4.7.1. Participatory, discursive approaches to migration scenarios ....................................21 4.7.2. Adaptation of existing scenarios ...........................................................................................24 4.7.3. Large-scale, mixed studies .......................................................................................................25 4.7.4. The Delphi method ....................................................................................................................26 4.7.5. Other approaches .......................................................................................................................26 5. Interim conclusion: Migration scenarios ...............................................................................................29 6. Results: Migration forecasts ..........................................................................................................................33 6.1. Who produces migration forecasts? ...................................................................................................33 6.2. Where are migration forecasts published? .......................................................................................34 6.3. Which data sources are used?................................................................................................................35