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Produced by the NASA Center for Aerospace Information (CASI) 1,0E/NASA/01 80-1 NASA CRA 65286 Market Assessment of Photovoltaic Power Systems for Agricultural Applications in the Philippines (NASA-Cd- 165286) SAHKEI ASSESSMENT CF N61-'14530 PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTIMS FOR AGHICULTUgAL APPLICATIONS IN THE PHILIPPINES Final Report (DH&, Inc.) 205 p HC A1U/bF A61 Unclas CSCL 10A G3/44 42369 R. Anil Cabraal and David Delasanta DHR, Incorporated and George Burrill ARD, Incorporated April 1981 Prepared for National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lewis Research Center Under Contract DEN3-180 for U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Conservation and Solar Energy Division of Solar Thermal Energy Systems DOE/NASA/0180-1 NASA CR-165286 Market Assessment of Photovoltaic Power Systems for Agricultural Applications In the Philippines R. Anil Cabraal and David Delasanta DHR, Incorporated Washington, D.C. and George Burrill ARD, Incorporated Burlington, Vermont April 1981 Prepared for National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lewis Research Center Cleveland, Ohio 44135 Under Contract DEN3-180 for U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Conservation and Solar Energy Division of Solar Thermal Energy Systems Washington, D.C. 20545 Under Interagency Agreement DE-AI01-79ET20485 We would like to express our thanks to all who assisted us in this s t;y, both in the Philippines and the O.S. Special thanks are due to Mr. Donald Bogart, NASA Lewis Research Center; Mr. Robert Ichord, O.S. Agency for International Development; Dr. Ernesto U. Terrado, lion-Con- ventional Energy Center, Ministry of Energy, Philippines; Dr. Alberto Te3ano, Development Bank of the Philippines, and Mr. Lawrence Ervin, OSAID Philippines. 11 r`' Table of Contents Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY x 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1-1 1-1 1.1 Background 1.2 Objectives 1-1 1.3 Study Approach 1-2 1.3.1 Philippine Data Collection 2-3 1.3.2 Data Analysis and Market Assessment 1-4 1.4 Report Organization 1-7 2.0 DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW 2-1 2.1 Energy Situation 2-2 Implications of the Energy Situation and 2-6 Government Energy Plans for P/V Systems 2.2 Key Public Sector Organizations in the Energy 2-8 Arena 3.0 PHILIPPINE DEVELOPMENT PLANS 3-1 3-1 3.1 Economic Development Plans 3-2 3.2 Rural Electrification 3-11 3.3 Agriculture 3-4 3.4 Fisheries 3.5 Forestry 3-17 4.0 FINANCING OF ENERGY, AGRICULTURE AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS 4-1 4.1 Overview of the Philippines Banking/Investment 4-1 System 4.2 Attitudes of Financial Institutions Towards 4-2 Photovoltaics 4-3 4.3 Availability of Long-Term Investment Funds 4.4 Availability of Long-Term Investment Funds for 4-8 Photovoltaic Systems in Agriculture 4-10 4.5 Loan Terms for Long-Term Investments 4.6 Conclusion 4-12 5.0 POTENTIAL PHOTOVOLTAIC APPLICATIONS IN PHILIPPINE 5-1 AGRICULTURE 5.1 Irrigation 5-2 5.1.1 Irrigation Load Profiles 5-3 5.1.2 Extent of Mechnically Powered Pumping 5-4 5.2 Rice Drying 5-8 5.2.1 Rice Drying Load Profile 5-10 5.2.2 Extent of Mechnically Powered Drying 5-10 5.3 Rice Milling 5-12 5.3.1 Rice Milling Load Profile 5-12 5.3.2 Extent of Rice Milling 5-14 iii Table of Contents (Con't.) t ?M -e 5.4 Corn Grinding S-14 5.4.1 Corn Milling 5-16 5.4.2 Extent of Use of Corn Milling Equipment 5-16 5.5 Continuous Cropping of Rice S-16 5.5.1 Rice Garden Load Profiles 5-19 5.5.2 Extent of Use Of.Rice Gardens 5-19 5.6 Ice Plant S-19 5.6.1 Ice Plant Profile 5-21 5.6.2 Extent of Use of Ice Plant 5-22 5.7 Prawn and Fish Hatchery 5-22 5.7.1 Prawn and Fish Hatchery Load Profile 5-23 5.7.2 Extent of Use of Prawn and Fish Hatcheries 5-23 5.8 Support Facilities for Large Commercial Farms 5-23 5.8.1 Support Facilities Load Profile 5-25 5.8.2 Extent of Use of Support Facilities 5-25 5.9 Fish Ponds 5-28 5.9.1 Fish Pond Load Profile 5-28 5.9.2 Extent of Use of Fish Ponds 5-29 5.10 Salt Manufacture 5-29 5.10.1 Salt Pond Load Profile 5-31 5.10.2 Extent of Use of Salt Manufacturing 5-31 5.11 Miscellaneous Small Power Applications 5-31 5-33 5.11.1 Battery Charging Load Profile 5.11.2 Extent of Use Of Battery Chargers 5-33 5.12 Marginal Applications 5-35 6.0 MARKET ASSESSMENT 6-1 6.1 Introduction 6-1 6.2 Market Size Estimation methodology 6-2 6.2.1 Cost Analysis 6-2 6.2.2 Market Size Estimation 6-3 6.3 Need for Financial and Economic Cost/Benefit 6-4 Analysis 6.4 Summary of Incentives and Barriers to P/V Use 6-6 in Agriculture 6.5 Cost Analyses 6-7 6.6 Estimation of Market Size 6-17 6.6.1 Scenario Definition 6-17 iv Table of Contents (Con't) Page 6.6.2 Market Estimate Based on Cost-CoMetitiveness 6-18 6.6.3 Market Site Estimate Based on Financial 6-20 Constraints 6.7 Conclusions 6-25 7.0 BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 7-1 7.1 Level of Public Awareness 7-1 7.2 Entrepreneurial Interest 7-2 7.3 Overview of Philippine Business Practices in the 7-4 Electric Generation and Transmission Equipment Areas 7.4 Current Generation Equipment Competition 7-6 7.5 Foreign P/V Competition 7-7 7.6 Climate for Investment 7-8 7.7 Standards and Regulations 7-9 y 7.8 Tariff Rates 7-10 7.9 Conclusions 7-11 APPENDICES Appendix A - Philippine Key Contacts A-1 Appendix B - Doing Business in the Philippines B-1 Appendix C - Tariff Rates C-1 Appendix D - Description of Financial Institutions D-1 that Invest in Agriculture Appendix E - Assumptions Used in the Financial and E-1 Economic Analyses Appendix F - Climate, Agricultural Regions, and F-1 Major Domestic and Export Crops of The Philippines Appendix G - Bibliography G-1 v List of Tables Pm 2-1. National Energy Source Nix 2-4 2-2. Energy Contribution of Non-Conventional Energy System 2-7 3-1. Installed Generating Capacities by Region 3-4 3-2. Rural Electrification - Status of Energiiation 3-5 3-3. Rural Electrification - Costs 3-9 3-4. Priority Programs and Projects 3-12 4-1. Long-Term Foreign Borrowings from USAID, World Hank, 4-4 Export-import Bank, U.S. Commodity Credit Corporation and Asia Development Bank for the Development Bank of the Philippines 4-2. Total Loans and Investments Outstanding by In- 4-6 stitutions (June, 1978) 4-3. Loans Granted by Development Banks by Industry 4-7 (1977) (Million Pesos) 4-4. Distribution of DBP Agricultural Loans by Purpose 4-9 4-5. Long-Term, Loan Terms for Selected Financial 4-11 Institutions 5-1. Irrigation Water Equipment for Selected Crop Growth 5-5 Regime in Laguna 5-2. Number of Pumps Sold and Installed in the Philippines 5-6 S-3. DHR Estimate of irrigation Pump Size Distribution 5-7 5-4. IRRI vertical Bin Batch Dryers Characteristics 5-9 5-5. Number of Rice Dryers Installed As of 1979 5-11 5-6. Rice Mill Usage Patterns 5-13 5-7. 1979 Rice Milling Capacity 5-15 5-8. Corn Milling Operating Characteristics 5-17 5-9. Irrigation Water Requirements for Continuous 5-20 Cropping of Rice 5.10. Equipment and Usage Profile for a Prawn/Fish 5-24 Hatchery 5-11. Equipment and Usage Profile for Support Activities 5-26 5-12. Estimated Number of Farms Over 50 HA in Area 5-27 5-13. Power Required and Usage Profile for Fish 5-30 Pond Operation (20 HA) 5-14. Power Required and Usage Profile for Salt/Fish 5-32 Production 5-15. Power Required and Usage Profile for Battery Charging 5-34 Applications 6-1. Characterisation of Business Environment/Financial 6-8 Barriers, Constraints and Incentives to Photovoltaics 6-2. Financial Analysis Using Real Fuel Escalation Rates 6-11 of 16% (Gasoline) and 10% (Diesel) 6-3. Financial and Economic Analysis Using 34 Real Fuel 6-15 Cost Escalation Rate 6-4. Upper Bound on P/V Power Requirements (MWp) 6-20 6-5. Market Size Estimations Based on Cost .-Competitiveness 6-22 Criteria (KWp) vi Y 'a 4; List of Tables (Can't) P^ 6-6. DHR Sstimates of Capital Available for Financing 6-23 P/V Systees in the Agriculture Sector 6-7. DHR Market Size Estimates eased on Finance Availa- 6-24 bility (MP) h 1 vii List of Fiyarea Page 1-1 DHR P/V Market Size Estimation Procedure 1-S 2-1 Historical i Projected Energy Mix (In Percent) 2-3 2-2 Organizational Chart 2-9 2-3 Hon-Con Center Organization 2-11 3-1 Luzon Power Projects 3-6 3-2 Mindanao Power Projects 3-7 3-3 Visayas Power Projects 3-6 6-1 Array Size vs.