A B O U T I N T E G R I T Y U K Integrity UK is an organisation committed to preventing extremism through innovative approaches to promoting integration, cohesion and social reconciliation within the MENA region and the UK. W E E K L Y D I G E S T 19 O C T O B E R – 25 O C T O B E R S Y R I A Politics The United States and Turkey Sign a Ceasefire Agreement in Northern Syria In a major development concerning the situation in northern Syria, the United States announced on 17th October that they have reached a ceasefire agreement with Turkey. The agreement acknowledged Turkey's “legitimate security concerns” and indicated that they would prevent the re-emergence of the Islamic State (IS) and highlighted the importance of the continued implementation of the safe-zone and the collection of heavy weapons from the People's Protection Units (YPG) and the disablement of fortifications. It also indicated that the enforcement of the safe-zone would be conducted by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). The ceasefire was timed to last 120 hours during which Turkey suspended its Operation Spring of Peace. By all indications, the agreement gave Turkey the upper hand, as it required the removal of the YPG and gave the TSK the right to resume the operations in the event of the YPG’s non-withdrawal. A number of factors, such as lack of clarity about the exact area and scope of the ceasefire, as well as the lack of US troops in the area to enforce the agreement. As a result, Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, continued to threaten the US with relaunching the operation over the course of the subsequent 120 hours. However, despite negative indications over the course of last Friday (18th October), the ceasefire mostly held until its expiry on Tuesday (22nd October). Russia and Turkey Sign a Ceasefire Agreement in Northern Syria. In the lead-up to the expiry of the ceasefire agreement between the US and Turkey in northern Syria, President Erdoğan travelled to Sochi where he met the Russian President, Vladimir Putin. Subsequently, the two sides announced a ceasefire agreement on Tuesday in which the TSK and the SNA retained control of Tal Abyad/Gire Spi and Ras al-Ain/Serekaniye, as well as the 120 kilometre-long and 32-kilometre-wide region between it. The agreement also stipulated that Russian Military Police (RMP) and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) will begin the removal of the YPG from the region over the course of the next 150 hours upon which joint Russian-Turkish patrols will run in the area. The agreement also stipulated that all YPG elements would be removed from Tal Rifaat and Manbij regions. Erdoğan explained that he had expressed to Putin concerns that the YPG could remain in the areas under the SAA umbrella - as happened in the case of Tal Rifaat - and reportedly received assurances that this would not be allowed. The Russian Government announced that within the framework of the agreement, the Syrian Border Guards would establish 15 checkpoints along the Turkish Border. Indicating satisfaction towards the agreement, the Turkish Ministry of Defence announced that there is no need to launch new offensives within the For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 207 879 9979 context of Operation Spring of Peace. By all indications, Erdoğan achieved his goal of pushing the YPG from much of the border while compelling Moscow and Damascus to limit and restrict the YPG and the wider Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). For Moscow and Damascus, the deal limits the land the TSK could control while also giving a suitable foundation for the SAA to deploy along the borders where the Syrian Government has been absent for almost the entirety of the war. Although Turkey does control a small stretch of land in Syria which is likely to emerge as a point of contention between Ankara and Damascus, the loss is relatively insignificant compared to the gains which also includes the reimplementation of the Adana Agreement in a new form, effectively meaning that the Turkish Government legitimised the Syrian Government after being opposed to it over the course of the war. Syrian President Visits Idlib The Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, visited the town of Hobait on Tuesday morning, marking the first such visit in Idlib Province since 2011. Meeting with the Syrian Government's Minister of Defence, as well as prominent commanders such as Brigadier-General Suheil al-Hassan, Assad referred to Erdoğan as a “robber” and described Idlib as the final front of the battle against “terrorism”. Although he did not specifically refer to the SDF, Assad mentioned that some Syrians had bet on the US for support, adding that he has been in contact with political and military actors in the north and expressed that the SAA would support any force resisting the “aggression” in the north. Assad’s visit was accompanied by increased shelling on the Opposition-held areas in Idlib, as well as a publication from the Twitter account of the Syrian Presidency concerning the situation in the region, promising updates. The visit has been viewed as a further validation that the SAA is preparing to launch a military offensive in the region, as well as a sign of the Syrian Government making progress with the SDF towards some sort of détente. Syrian Arab Army and Russian Military Police Expand Northern Syria Presence Over the course of the ceasefire agreements, the SAA and the RMP continued to expand their presence in northern Syria, taking control of many areas across the border to prevent the launch of TSK and SNA operations. Over the course of last week, the SAA took control of border areas reaching the village of Zor Maghar, east of Jarablus, to Kobani/Ain al-Arab. In Tabqa City, activists reported that the RMP is preparing to open a new base while working to bring the base back to functional capacity. Increased SAA presence was also reported along the towns of Amude, Dirbesiyeh and Qamishli City along the border. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Vershinin, who spoke on Thursday (24th October), stated that the implementation of the Sochi agreement had started. In conjunction, Russian media reported that 276 RMP officers will be deployed to Syria, with the first patrol with Turkey expected to commence on the coming Tuesday (29th October). However, there are signs of growing resistance to the SAA presence. In Manbij City, shopkeepers held a general strike on the weekend of 21st and 22nd of October, accusing the SAA and RMP of intimidating local people. In Deir ez-Zour, the leader of the Deir ez-Zour Military Council, Ahmed Abu Khawla, announced he would fight the SAA if they try to enter the area. The Deir ez-Zour Civilian Council appears to have supported his decision. Like in Manbij, protests against the SAA also continued in Deir ez-Zour. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 207 879 9979 The Syrian Democratic Forces Mulls Its Future Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, expressed readiness on Monday (21st October) to negotiate between the Syrian Government and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AA). Lavrov noted that Moscow had taken an appropriate position under the current regional developments and added that his goal is to create a situation where all Kurdish organisations in Syria are woven into the country's legal framework and constitution. He added that both the Syrian Government and the AA had expressed willingness for Russian mediation. Among his suggestions was that the 1998 Adana Agreement between Damascus and Ankara be amended. On Wednesday (23rd October) the SDF's Commander-In-Chief, Mazloum Abdi, spoke with the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Shoigu, expressing gratitude to the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, for contributing to a peaceful settlement. The two sides also discussed plans to expand patrol routes and other logistical issues. Notably, Abdi appeared in front of the flags of Russia and the Syrian Government, with no flags of the YPG or the SDF present, fuelling speculation that there may be an on-going agreement to eventually fold the SDF into the SAA. This was supported by a report on Russian media which cited an SDF official, indicating that the group would consider joining the Syrian Army in the event of a political resolution. Abdi is expected to visit both Washington and Moscow in the coming days. Despite the apparent and growing detente between the SDF and the Syrian Government, it would appear that the SDF is keeping a door open for the US. On Monday, the Co-Chair of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), Ilham Ahmed, visited Washington where she met with the US President, Donald Trump. Ahmed, who visited the US on behalf of Mazloum Abdi, requested Trump to “stop this massacre” that would result in “genocide or ethnic cleansing”. Ahmed also warned against “a new ISIS emerging” on account of the SNA behaving like Islamic State (IS) militants. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who supported sanctions against Turkey, told members of the press that the SDF has a proven track record of guarding IS militants and added that he does not trust Turkey. However, the talks in Washington appear to have been unproductive, with The National Interest reporting on Thursday that the talks descended into “meltdown” and “screaming” amidst an effort by the State Department to push the SDF to work with the SNA on an anti-Iran capacity while trying to prevent the SDF from making a deal with Damascus.