Options to achieve 80g/km CO2 by 2020 Lowering the bar: options for the automotive industry to achieve 80g/km CO 2 by 2020 in Europe May 2010 CAIR/BRASS, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK Authors: Peter Wells Paul Nieuwenhuis Hazel Nash Lori Frater Centre for Automotive Industry Research & ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK Page 1 Options to achieve 80g/km CO2 by 2020 This study has been commissioned by Greenpeace International. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone, and do not constitute a policy position or opinion by Greenpeace International. Centre for Automotive Industry Research & ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK Page 2 Options to achieve 80g/km CO2 by 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................ 6 ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................ 12 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 14 1.1 The background story ........................................................................................................................................ 14 1.2 Why has progress been so slow? ....................................................................................................................... 15 1.3 A Brief Overview of the Existing Regulatory Framework ................................................................................... 17 1.4 The Scenarios ..................................................................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 2 – Scenario I (un) conventional technologies ....................................... 21 2.1 Internal Combustion .......................................................................................................................................... 21 2.3 Strategic and tactical approaches to reduce CO 2 emissions by the vehicle manufacturers .............................. 28 2.4. Incremental (tactical) optimisation: existing designs ....................................................................................... 29 2.5 Incremental (tactical) optimisation: new designs .............................................................................................. 34 2.6 Radical (strategic) optimisation: new designs ................................................................................................... 35 2.7 Technology packages for low-carbon cars ......................................................................................................... 35 2.8 Modelling the Market Mix for Low Carbon ....................................................................................................... 37 2.9 Legislative and policy framework for Scenario 1 ............................................................................................... 38 2.10 Summary .......................................................................................................................................................... 40 Chapter 3 – Scenario 2: Electric Vehicles. ................................................................. 42 3.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................... 42 3.2 Hybrids ............................................................................................................................................................... 47 3.3 Batteries ............................................................................................................................................................. 47 3.4 Costs .................................................................................................................................................................. 51 3.5 Measuring CO 2 from EVs .................................................................................................................................... 54 3.5.1 The Kendall Method ................................................................................................................................... 54 Centre for Automotive Industry Research & ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK Page 3 Options to achieve 80g/km CO2 by 2020 3.6 EVs and Alternative Business Models ................................................................................................................ 56 3.6.1 Car Clubs – part of the solution? ................................................................................................................ 56 3.6.2 Better Place................................................................................................................................................. 58 3.7 Legislative and policy framework for Scenario 2 ............................................................................................... 59 3.7.1 Supporting Measures .................................................................................................................................. 61 3.8 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 62 Chapter 4 – Scenario 3: Vehicle Performance Reduction .................................... 65 4.1 Context .............................................................................................................................................................. 65 4.2 Vehicle performance parameters: the bigger picture ....................................................................................... 65 4.3 Power and weight: technological solutions ....................................................................................................... 69 4.4 De-powering and weight reductions to achieve 80 g/km.................................................................................. 74 4.5 Top speed restrictions ....................................................................................................................................... 75 4.6 Acceleration restrictions .................................................................................................................................... 76 4.7 Legislative and policy framework for Scenario 3 ............................................................................................... 78 4.8 Summary ............................................................................................................................................................ 79 Chapter 5 – Scenario 4: Market/Segment Shift ....................................................... 81 5.1 Shifts within segments ....................................................................................................................................... 81 5.2 Segmentation..................................................................................................................................................... 82 5.3 New segments ................................................................................................................................................... 85 5.3.1 What is a Car? ............................................................................................................................................. 86 5.3.2 Voiturettes .................................................................................................................................................. 86 5.3.3 The Car – Motorcycle Interface .................................................................................................................. 87 5.4 Fun v Green ........................................................................................................................................................ 90 5.5 Barriers to introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 90 5.6 Legislative and policy framework for Scenario 4 ............................................................................................... 91 Chapter 6 – Conclusion: How to get to 80 g/km ..................................................... 95 Centre for Automotive Industry Research & ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK Page 4 Options to achieve 80g/km CO2 by 2020 6.1 Combining the Scenarios ................................................................................................................................... 95 6.2 Costs and the achievement of 80 g/km ........................................................................................................... 101 6.3 Role of the Customer ....................................................................................................................................... 102 6.4 The limits of CO 2 regulation ............................................................................................................................. 103 References ......................................................................................................................... 105 Centre for Automotive Industry Research & ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK Page 5 Options