View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by University of Groningen University of Groningen Endurance in speed skating Kuper, GH; Sterken, E Published in: European Journal of Operational Research DOI: 10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00685-9 IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below. Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Publication date: 2003 Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database Citation for published version (APA): Kuper, GH., & Sterken, E. (2003). Endurance in speed skating: The development of world records. European Journal of Operational Research, 148(2), 293-301. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377- 2217(02)00685-9 Copyright Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum. Download date: 12-11-2019 European Journal of Operational Research 148 (2003) 293–301 www.elsevier.com/locate/dsw Endurance in speed skating: The development of world records Gerard H. Kuper *, Elmer Sterken Department of Economics, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, The Netherlands Abstract We analyse the development of world records speed skating from 1893 to 2000 for both men and women. The historical data show that it is likelythat the relation between skating speed and distance of the various events is non- linear and converges to a limit value. We payspecial attention to technical innovations in speed skating, especially,the introduction of the klapskate in the 1996/1997 season, and its impact on the long-run limit value. We focus on en- durance and we estimate lower bounds for world records given the current technological state of the art. We illustrate the forecasting properties of our model using the Salt Lake City2002 Winter Games results. Ó 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Forecasting; Athletic performance 1. Introduction casting as, for instance, is illustrated bySmith (1988). Smith (1988) tries to solve this problem by Manysports events are driven bythe old Ro- using various distribution functions, but does not man slogan Citius, Altius, Fortis (faster, higher, find robust results. Moreover, in manycases there stronger). Human beings continuouslyexplore the seems to be a linear trend in the data, which might limits of human performance in, for instance, be appropriate in the short run, but cannot be true running, swimming, track and field, and weight- in the long run. Most time series of world records lifting. Due to the revival of the Olympic Games in seem to show linear trends for subintervals, which 1896, data on the historyof world records are troubles identification of non-linearityas is shown available for manysports. The analysis of world byBallerini and Resnick (1987). Thirdly,some records through time is cumbersome though. The events are characterised bytechnical innovations, main problem of a world record time series is its which shift the human production function out- distribution. Since there can onlybe improve- ward. ments, world record times series move in one di- In this paper we analyse a data set that seems rection only, but are not allowed to go to zero. to suffer from all three problems (non-normality This complicates matters in estimation and fore- of residuals, presence of linear trends, and jumps). The data refer to long track speed skating. Speed skating records are recorded since 1893 for men * and since 1930 for women. For men, world record Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (G.H. Kuper), speed skating times are available for 500 m (the [email protected] (E. Sterken). shortest event) up to 10 K events. For women, we 0377-2217/03/$ - see front matter Ó 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00685-9 294 G.H. Kuper, E. Sterken / European Journal of Operational Research 148 (2003) 293–301 have world record speed skating times for the 500 rificing the strength of the skate. Another type of m event up to 5 K (the longest official distance in innovation is the construction of skating ovals at women speed skating). higher altitudes, starting with the Davos track that There have been a number of major techno- was founded at the end of the 19th century. logical innovations in speed skating. The next Probablythe most famous example in this class is section brieflydescribes the historyin speed skat- the high altitude Medeo rink, where manyworld ing with a special focus on these innovations. The records have been produced until its demise in the major innovations are the introduction of refrig- early1990s. The third technological innovation is erated ovals in the late 1950s, the methods of ice the construction of refrigerated ovals. The first one preparation since the 1960s, the introduction of was opened in 1958 in Gothenburg. The fast Me- tight-fit clothing in the 1970s, the construction of deo rink was refrigerated since 1972. Also the indoor ovals since the mid-1980s, and the intro- preparation of ice became a handicraft. In the duction of the klapskate since the late 1990s. In 1960s, the ice in the Bislett stadium in Oslo was this paper we address the impact of these innova- prepared with a sprayof tinydroplets of water tions on world records. The goal of the paper is to frozen in place, which resulted in a smaller area of present estimates of lower bounds of record speed contact with the skate blade and thus less friction, skating times conditional on technological devel- at least until the droplets were worn down. Skating opment. These estimates are presented in Section clothes were improved also. The Swiss skating 4. Before presenting these results, Section 3 dis- veteran Franz Krienbuuhl€ introduced the tight-fit cusses modelling issues. Section 5 concludes. suits in 1976. In recent years some skaters experi- ment with special sharkskin suits which are sup- posed to further reduce the air resistance. More 2. Innovations in speed skating important to the improvement of the world record is the construction of indoor 400 m ice rinks. The Before we proceed to analyse the data, we first indoor ovals were developed in Heerenveen, brieflydescribe the development of speed skating. The Netherlands, in 1986 and in 1987 in Calgary, The establishment of the International Skating Canada, for the 1988 Winter Olympic Games. The Union (ISU) in 1892 led to a systematic registra- Dutchman Van Ingen Schenau establishes a major tion of world records on metric distances rather innovation of the skate itself in 1996. Discon- than English miles. Obviously, the creation of this necting the blade from the heel of the skate and institution has been important to promote speed placing a pivot point under the ball of the foot skating and initiate data collection. However, allows skaters to use the full extension of the leg to technical innovations, improving training meth- achieve maximum power and glide. The advanta- ods, and more frequent occurrence (and perhaps ges of this skate, called the klapskate, were already earlier recognition) of exceptional athletic skills known since the end of the 19th century. As we reallyboosted world record speed skating times. will illustrate below, this innovation led to a Improving training methods and fostering athletic serious improvement of world records on all dis- skills result in an increased production of power, tances. whereas technical innovations aim at reducing loss In order to model the historic development of of power byreducing ice and air resistance. speed skating world records, we use data published As far as technical innovations are concerned bythe ISU. The ISU website 1 gives the world we can make a distinction between innovations of records since 1893 for each event. We take the the ovals, the methods of ice preparation, im- world record of a year by the record of July 1st. proved clothing, and developments to the skates We construct series that are normalised to the 500 themselves. Alreadyat the end of the 19th century m event (this is a common wayof notation for the there was a technical innovation of the skates. Norwegian Axel Paulsen introduced lighter metal tubes and longer and thinner blades without sac- 1 URL: http://www.isu.org/historical/sswrecs.html. G.H. Kuper, E. Sterken / European Journal of Operational Research 148 (2003) 293–301 295 ISU in large championship events). So we measure the 1000 m event yields the highest average speed. seconds per 500 m for all events (both male and Due to the loss at the start the average speed on female records). Fig. 1 illustrates the data. Fig. 1 the 500 m is a bit lower. Here we can see the an- clearlyreveals that there is serious progress in alogue with running. The 200 m dash record also speed skating. One can also observe that certain yields a higher average speed than the 100 m dash events lack competition. For men this is the 3 K record. Fig. 1 also shows convergence of speed race, because the 3 K race is not organised in big across events.