SOMALIA Seasonal Monitor June 15, 2015 FEWS NET will publish a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through June 20, 2015 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non- governmental organizations (NGOs). Significant amounts of rain fell in most of the Northwest From June 1 to 10, field reports and satellite rainfall estimates indicate rainfall ranging from 10 and 50 millimeters (mm) was received in most of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed and localized areas of Sool and Sanaag Regions of the Northwest and Bari Region of the Northeast. However, there was little or no rain in most of South-Central Somalia (Figure 1). Rainfall was below the 2005- to-2009 mean in most of northeastern, central, and southern Somalia and parts of Sanaag, Sool, and Togdheer Regions in northwestern Somalia (Figure 2). In the Northwest, moderate rains fell in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions of the Northwest. However, no rains fell along the coast in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone. In addition, localized light-to-moderate rains were received in some parts of the Hawd and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones, including in Burao, Buhoodle, and Odweyne Districts, but agropastoral areas in Togdheer remained dry. In Sool Region, localized light to moderate rains fell in many areas on the Sool Plateau, in theNugal Valley, and in the Hawd. In Sanaag, localized, moderate-to-light rains were reported in East Golis Pastoral, the northern Nugal Valley, and Sool Plateau Pastoral livelihood zone. In most of the Northwest, pasture and water conditions have generally improved over the past several weeks except in Northwest Agropastoral, Guban Pastoral, and West Golis Pastoral livelihood zones in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, all of which received very little rain in May. In the Northeast, localized, moderate-to-light rains fell on the Sool Plateau in Qardho and Bender Beyla Districts. Localized, moderate-to-heavy rains fell in parts of East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone in Qandala District. In addition, localized, moderate rains fell over Karkaar-Dharor Pastoral livelihood zone in Iskushuba and Qardho Districts. Rains were sufficient to further improve pasture conditions and replenish water sources. Reports indicate unusual livestock outmigration was halted in most pastoral areas, but typical, intraregional movement is continuing. In the central regions of Galgaduud and northern Mudug, most areas had no rainfall. Only sporadic, light showers were received in pockets of Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones. Most of the cowpea belt had dry weather. Despite limited impact of these rains in terms of increasing water availability and improving pasture conditions, pasture and water conditions continue to be seasonally typical following the moderate rains received in May. In the South, most areas received little or no rain. In pastoral, agropastoral, and riverine livelihood zones, dry conditions continued and strong Xagaa winds were reported in some places. However, pockets in Hiraan, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions received light showers. All monitored rain gauges in the South read zero millimeters (mm) for June 1 to 10 except for Beletweyne and Jamame which recorded 11 mm and 27 mm, respectively, both having one day of rainfall. However, pasture, browse, and water conditions remain seasonally typical in all pastoral areas of the South. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shows that current vegetation conditions in southern parts of the country are generally within the normal range, following earlier rain (Figure 3). However, vegetation conditions deteriorated in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions of the Northwest, where cumulative Gu rainfall since April has been below average. The Global Forecast System (GFS) precipitation forecast for June 16 to 22 is for light to moderate rainfall of between 5 mm and 20 mm in parts of Lower Shabelle and the Jubas and pockets in the Northeast. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry (Figure 4). For more rain gauge data, please, contact [email protected] or visit http://www.faoswalim.org. FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity.The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net/Somalia Government. SOMALIA Seasonal Monitor June 15, 2015 Figure 1. Rainfall estimate (RFE2) in millimeters (mm), Figure 2. Anomaly (RFE2) in mm from 2005-to-2009 June 1 to 10, 2015 mean, June 1 to 10, 2015 Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001-2010 mean, June 1 to forecast in mm for June 13 to 19, 2015 10, 2015 Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and USGS/FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 .