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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Deradicalizing Islamist Extremists Angel Rabasa, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jeremy J. Ghez, Christopher Boucek NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION The research described in this report was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Deradicalizing Islamist extremists / Angel Rabasa ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5090-8 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—Prevention—Case studies. 2. Extremists. 3. Radicalism— Religious aspects—Islam. I. Rabasa, Angel. HV6431.D466 2011 363.325'17—dc22 2010039094 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2010 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2010 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Although there has been a great deal of research on the radicalization and recruitment of Islamist extremists, until recently, there has been relatively little research on the deradicalization of those who have been recruited into Islamist extremist movements and organizations. Just as there are processes through which an individual becomes an extremist, there are also processes through which an extremist comes to renounce violence, leaves a group or movement, or even rejects a radical worldview. Moreover, there is reason to believe that deradical- ization is not merely the radicalization process in reverse: Deradical- ization appears to have its own distinct features—some of which are quite different from the factors associated with the initial radicaliza- tion. This project sought to identify and analyze the processes through which militants leave Islamist extremist groups, assess the effectiveness of deradicalization programs, and derive judgments about policies that could help promote and accelerate processes of deradicalization. This research was funded by a grant from the Smith Richard- son Foundation, with supplementary funding from the RAND Cor- poration’s Rockwell Prize, and was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the U.S. Intelligence Community. iii iv Deradicalizing Islamist Extremists For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/about/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Tables .............................................................................. xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Disengagement and Deradicalization ........................................ 1 Introduction ........................................................................ 1 The Dependent Variable: Disengagement or Deradicalization? .............. 5 The Disengagement and Deradicalization Processes ..........................11 The Trigger ......................................................................13 Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Staying or Leaving ...................15 The Turning Point: The Decision to Exit ....................................18 Developing a New Identity and Reintegrating into Society .............. 20 Level of Commitment ......................................................... 23 Radical Islamists ................................................................. 26 Conclusions ........................................................................31 CHAPTER TWO Survey of Deradicalization Programs........................................33 The Logic Behind Deradicalization Programs .................................37 What Constitutes Success? ...................................................... 40 Key Components of Successful Deradicalization Programs ................ 42 v vi Deradicalizing Islamist Extremists CHAPTER THREE Middle Eastern Programs ......................................................45 Introduction .......................................................................45 Yemen .............................................................................. 46 Context of the Yemeni Deradicalization Program ......................... 46 Methodology ....................................................................47 Release ............................................................................51 Evaluation ........................................................................52 Saudi Arabia ...................................................................... 56 Context of the Saudi Deradicalization Program ........................... 56 Counterterrorism Strategy .....................................................57 Philosophy .......................................................................63 Methodology ................................................................... 66 Release ............................................................................73 Evaluation ........................................................................75 Iraq ................................................................................. 77 Early Insurgent Rehabilitation Efforts ...................................... 77 Iraqi Rehabilitation Program Under General Stone ........................78 Evaluation ....................................................................... 80 Collective Deradicalization: Egypt and Libya .................................81 Characteristics of the Egyptian and Libyan Approaches ...................81 Egypt: The Deradicalization of al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya and Egyptian Islamic Jihad ....................................................81 Libya: The Deradicalization of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group ..... 84 CHAPTER FOUR Southeast Asian Programs .....................................................91 The Regional Context ............................................................91 Legal Regimes and Types of Programs .......................................93 Singapore ...........................................................................95 Psychological Rehabilitation .................................................. 97 Religious Rehabilitation ....................................................... 98 Social Rehabilitation, Community Involvement, and Family Support ..................................................................... 99 Release .......................................................................... 103 Evaluation