2012 BRISBANE CITY COUNCIL ELECTIONS Analysis of Results CONTENTS Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Council and Lord Mayoral Elections Council and Lord Mayor Election Totals ....................................................................... 3 Summary of Results ..................................................................................................... 4 Council Results in Detail ............................................................................................... 6 By-elections ................................................................................................................ 10 Lord Mayor Election .................................................................................................... 10 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results .................................................................. 11 Comparison Tables Lord Mayoral Election – First Preference Vote by Ward ............................................ 14 Party First Preference Percentages by Ward Compared ........................................... 15 Party Two-Party Preferred Percentages by Ward Compared .................................... 16 Summary of the Distribution of Green Preferences ................................................................. 17 Map of Wards .......................................................................................................................... 18 Symbols .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting Member .... 'Ghost' candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election. Party Abbreviations ALP Australian Labor Party IND Independents GRN The Greens LNP Liberal National Party Important Dates Close of Rolls Saturday 25 February 2012 Close of Nominations Tuesday 27 March 2012 Polling Day Saturday 28 April 2012 Note: The elections were originally set for Saturday 24 March 2012 but deferred when that date was used for the Queensland state election. 2012 Brisbane City Council Election INTRODUCTION This paper provides an analysis of the results of the 2012 Brisbane City Council elections. Format for Results For each Ward and the Lord Mayoral election, full details of primary and two-candidate preferred votes and percentages are provided. The format and calculations used in the electorate results are as follows. First Count: The votes shown for each candidate are the total primary votes received. Percentage votes are calculated as a percentage of the formal vote for each ward. Change in vote share is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by a party at the previous election from the percentage received at the current election. Where the parties contesting the district differ from the previous election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by "....") have been included representing candidates not contesting the current election. All primary swings add to zero, subject to rounding errors. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the distribution of preferences in an electorate. All votes that did not indicate a preference between the two final candidates are included in the total of votes shown as 'Exhausted'. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for each candidate by the total of votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted vote. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the final two candidates from the previous election. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the previous election (e.g. Tennyson), ghost candidates appear and more than two swing figures are shown. Two-Party Preferred: Represents an estimated distribution of preferences between candidates representing the Labor Party and the LNP in the three wards that did not finish as two-party contests. Two-Candidate versus Two-Party Preferred results Two-candidate Preferred Count: To win a contest, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote remaining after the distribution of preferences. The distribution is performed by successively excluding candidates with the lowest tally and distributing each candidate’s ballot papers according to the next available preference indicated for a candidate remaining in the count. Ballot papers without a valid further preferences are added to the 'exhausted' tally. At the end of the count, the vote for the two final candidates is referred to as the 'two-candidate preferred vote'. Two-Party Preferred Count: Most Queensland electoral contests involving parties finish as contests between candidates representing the Labor Party and the Liberal National Party (LNP). The final distribution of preferences between Labor and LNP candidates is referred to as the 'two-party preferred count'. At the 2012 election, three wards did not finish as two-party preferred contests. These were Pullenvale and Walter Taylor, which finished as LNP versus Green contests, and Tennyson, which finished as a contest between an Independent and the LNP. Estimated two-party preferred results have been calculated for these wards. In Pullenvale and Walter Taylo, the distribution of Green preferences in the ward at the Lord Mayoral election have been used as Green preference flows for the Council result. (See Green preferences p17.) In Tennyson, the preference estimate is based on difference between party percentage votes in the ward results for the Council and Lord Mayor. Independent preferences have been distributed to calculate a two-party vote using flows of 22.5% to the LNP, 10.4% to Labor and 67.1% exhausting. By-elections, Casual Vacancies and Changes of Party Membership One by-election was held between 2008 and 2012. Julian Simmonds was elected for Walter Taylor ward in late 2010 following the election of Jane Prentice to the House of Representatives at the August 2010 federal election. Details of the by-election can be found on page 10. Two related casual vacancies were filled by appointment in the twelve months before the election. Lord Mayor Campbell Newman resigned in March 2011 to became Leader of the Queensland LNP, Prepared by Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 1 2012 Brisbane City Council Election though without a seat in the Legislative Assembly. In March 2012 Newman was elected as member for Ashgrove and took office as Premier. Newman's position as Lord Mayor was filled by Macgregor Councillor Graham Quirk, while Qurk's vacancy in Macgregor was filled by Steven Huang. Tennyson Councillor Nicole Johnston was elected as an LNP member in 2008 but subsequently left the party. She was successfully re-elected at the 2012 election and her victory is shown as an Independent gain compared to the 2008 result. Disclaimer All results are based on details made available by the Electoral Commission Queensland. However, responsibility for all calculations, errors and omissions is taken by the author. Note that due to rounding errors, some tables do not add to exactly 100%. Antony Green December 2015 2 Prepared by Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 2012 Brisbane City Council Election Council Totals Roll : 673,827 Candi- Wards Party dates Won Change Votes % Votes Swing Liberal National Party 26 18 +2 307,495 57.11 +4.58 Labor Party 26 7 -3 172,572 32.05 -5.17 Greens 18 .. .. 45,545 8.46 -1.35 Independent 5 1 +1 12,851 2.39 +1.94 Formal 75 26 .. 538,463 97.82 Informal 12,002 2.18 +0.46 Total Votes 550,465 81.69 -4.07 LNP gains from Labor (3) Central Doboy Karawatha Independent gain from LNP Tennyson (See notes below) Changes in Council Membership and LNP Gains from Labor at the 2012 Election Ward Departing Councillor Reason New Councillor Central David Hinchliffe (ALP) Retired Vicki Howard (LNP) Doboy John Campbell (ALP) Defeated Ryan Murphy (LNP) Karawatha Gail Macpherson (ALP) Retired Kim Marx (LNP) Lord Mayor Totals Roll : 673,827 Candi Seats Party dates Won Change Votes % Votes Swing Liberal National Party 1 1 .. 333,637 61.94 +1.87 Labor Party 1 .. .. 135,534 25.16 -3.85 Greens 1 .. .. 57,641 10.70 +2.32 Independent 2 .. .. 11,858 2.20 -0.34 Formal 5 1 .. 538,670 97.86 Informal 11,778 2.14 +0.44 Total Votes 550,448 81.69 -4.13 Notes: Lord Mayor Graham Quirk was elected for the first time in 2012 after being appointed to the post by casual vacancy in April. His casual vacancy as Councillor for Macgregor was filled by Steven Huang, who was elected to represent the ward for the first time in 2012. Councillor Nicole Johnston was elected in Tennyson ward as an Independent in 2012 after being elected for the LNP in 2008. Prepared by Antony Green – ABC Election Unit 3 2012 Brisbane City Council Election COUNCIL: SUMMARY OF PARTY FIRST PREFERENCE VOTE BY WARD First Preference Votes Informal Total Ward LNP ALP GRN OTH Votes Votes Roll Bracken Ridge 14786 5583 1695 .. 551 22615 26612 Central 10284 6096 3613 .. 372 20365 27518 Chandler 16768 5070 .. .. 495 22333 26210 Deagon 8563 10325 1575 657 494 21614 25609 Doboy 11946 9953 .. .. 581 22480 26795 Enoggera 12336 5727 2336 670 429 21498 26746 Hamilton 14122 4083 2672 .. 450 21327 27279 Holland Park 11531 6620 2816 .. 419 21386 26279 Jamboree 14584 3982 1507 .. 387 20460 23863 Karawatha 13718 6979 .. .. 730 21427 26496 Macgregor 12437 3865 1374 1232 529 19437 23893 Marchant 13588 6144 2262 .. 452 22446 27285 McDowall 15804 5727 .. .. 459 21990 25974 Moorooka 7767 10602 2600 .. 534 21503 26188 Morningside 9165 11658 .. .. 368 21191 26509 Northgate 10470 10622 .. .. 527