An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet Mariska Weijerman Photo on front cover is Tumon Bay in Guam, photo NOAA An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio- economics meet Mariska Weijerman i Thesis committee Promotors Prof. Dr. R. Leemans Professor of the Environmental Systems Analysis Group Wageningen University, Netherlands Prof. Dr. W.M. Mooij Professor of Aquatic Foodweb Ecology Wageningen University, Netherlands Co-promotors Dr. E.A. Fulton, Senior principal research scientists, Head of Ecosystem Modelling Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Oceans & Atmosphere, Australia Dr. R.E. Brainard Division chief, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Coral Reef Ecosystem Division National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States of America Other members Prof. Dr. Nick Polunin, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, UK Prof. Dr. Tinka Murk, Wageningen University, Netherlands Prof. Dr. Jack Middelburg, Utrecht University, Netherlands Dr. Ronald Osinga, Wageningen University, Netherlands This research was conducted under the auspices of the Graduate School for Socio-Economic and Natural Sciences of the Environment (SENSE) ii An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet Mariska Weijerman Thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of doctor at Wageningen University by the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. Dr Ir A.P.J. Mol, in the presence of the Thesis Committee appointed by the Academic Board to be defended in public on Wednesday 16 September 2015 at 11 a.m. in the Aula. iii Mariska Weijerman An integrated ecosystem model for coral reef management where oceanography, ecology and socio-economics meet, 289 pages. PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL (2015) With references, with summary in English ISBN 978-94-6257-430-4 iv Table of Contents Chapter 1 General introduction .................................................................................................................... 2 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Step-wise approach .................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 Significance and novelty of thesis ........................................................................................................................... 9 1.4 Overall research objective and research questions ................................................................................................ 11 1.5 Outline thesis ......................................................................................................................................................... 12 Chapter 2 How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs .................................... 16 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 18 2.2 Categorization of three coral reef model types: Minimal, intermediate and complex ........................................... 21 2.3 Multiple model strategies in relation to coral reef management ............................................................................ 30 2.4 Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................................................... 33 Chapter 3 Coral reef ecosystems and performance indicators ................................................................... 35 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 37 3.2 Methods ................................................................................................................................................................. 38 3.3 Results ................................................................................................................................................................... 45 3.4 Discussion .............................................................................................................................................................. 49 3.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................................... 52 Chapter 4 Design and parametrization of a coral reef ecosystem model for Guam ................................... 54 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 56 4.2 Guam ..................................................................................................................................................................... 59 4.3 Methods ................................................................................................................................................................. 65 4.4 Results ................................................................................................................................................................... 95 4.5 Discussion .............................................................................................................................................................. 96 Chapter 5 Coral reef-fish biomass trends based onshore-based creel surveys in Guam ............................ 99 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 101 5.2 Methods ............................................................................................................................................................... 103 5.3 Results ................................................................................................................................................................. 109 5.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................................ 116 Chapter 6 Applying the Atlantis model framework to coral reef ecosystems ......................................... 119 6.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 121 6.2 Methods ............................................................................................................................................................... 122 6.3 Results ................................................................................................................................................................. 128 6.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................................ 135 6.5 Concluding remarks ............................................................................................................................................. 137 v Chapter 7 Ecosystem modelling applied to coral reefs in support of ecosystem-based management ..... 139 7.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 141 7.2 Methods ............................................................................................................................................................... 142 7.3. Results ................................................................................................................................................................ 150 7.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................................ 156 7.5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................................... 159 Chapter 8 Towards an Ecosystem-based approach of Guam’s coral reefs: the human dimension ........ .161 8.1 Background .......................................................................................................................................................... 163 8.2 Methods ............................................................................................................................................................... 166 8.3 Results ................................................................................................................................................................. 169 8.4 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................................ 172 8.5 Next steps ............................................................................................................................................................ 176 8.6 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................................