THE UNIVERSITY OF HULL The Political Changes in Oman from 1970: Transition Towards Democracy being a thesis submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy In the University of Hull By A~illah Salim Hamed AI-Harthy March 2004 1 ABSTRACT The aim of this thesis is to study the political changes in Oman from 1970 with the focus on the transition towards democracy. The core issue is the change from the policy of the previous sultan, who banned the participation of the nation and oppressed it. This led the country to civil war, isolation and the end of the regime. The current sultan, who launched a coup against his father in 1970, adopted various changes in areas such as the economy, politics and infrastructure, and allowed the people to run the country. The important changes were the process of democratisation in Oman, which is discussed in the context both of democratic theory, and change in the South. The thesis will offer an overview of democratic political theory, an account of political change in the South in general, and in the Middle East region in particular. The focus on Oman will seek to answer three questions: when did the process of democratisation begin; why was it begun, and how has it been managed? The core of the argument will look at the creation of formal institutions of democracy, such as the Majlis Ash-Shura (Consultative Council), and the State Council, and informal institutions, such as the media, the Chamber of Commerce, the Businessmen's Council, Sablat Alarab (the Arab Council Web Site), and the role of leading individuals in the democratic debate. These changes led the current sultan to receive internal and extemallegitimacy. Omani citizens are now aware of the development in other parts of the world and they will force the current sultan to add further changes. He should respond positively in order to remain in power. 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am very grateful to my supervisor Eric Grove, the Director of the Centre for Security Studies who encouraged me to work to the best of my ability. He was very kind, and a great source of inspiration. At the same time, I must thank Yousif Al-Alawy, Sayyid Abdullah Hamed Al-Busaidi, Sheikh Abdulazeez Al-Azezy, Sheikh Salim Al-Mashani, Sayyid Badr Hamed Al-Busaid, Sheikh Abdulrahman Ibraheim Al-Abry, uncle Yaqoub Hamed Al-Harthy, Suleiman Mohamed Hammed Al-Harthy, Abdullah Salim AI-Salmi and Khalfan Nasser Al-Wahyby. Finally, I would like to express my deep thanks to my wife (Um Khalid) for her great support during my study. 3 Table of Contents Pages Abstract 2 Acknowledgment 3 Chapter 1: Introduction 12 1.1 Defining the Problem 12 1.2 Existing Knowledge on the Subject 17 1.3 Our Departure 27 1.4 The Aim of the Thesis 29 1.5 The Importance of the Study 29 1.6 Methods and Sources 30 1.7 Organization of the Study 31 Chapter 2: Democracy and Democratization 36 2.1 Introduction 36 2.2 Defining Democracy 37 2.3 Democracy 38 2.3.1 Democracy in Ancient Greece 38 2.3.2 The West 40 2.3.3 The Development of Democracy 42 2.3.4 Democracy in the South 47 2.4 Democratization 53 2.5 Democracy and its Critics 56 2.6 The British Experince 60 4 2.6.1 The Role of the Head of the State 61 2.6.2 The Role of the Ministers 61 2.6.3 The Role of the Parliament (the House of Lords and the House of Commons) 62 2.7 Conclusion 63 Chapter 3: The Political Context in the Middle East and its Implications for the Sultanate of Oman 65 3.1 Introduction 65 3.2 Social and Cultural Context 66 3.2.1 History 66 3.2.2 Arabic Language 67 3.2.3 Islam 68 3.2.4 Islam and Democracy 72 3.2.5 Tribes 80 3.2.6 Democracy in the Middle East 82 3.2.7 Social and Economic Contexts 85 3.3 Political Changes in the Middle East 86 3.3.1 Colonial Period 86 3.3.2 Decolonization 87 3.4 Political Regime types in the Middle East 93 3.4.1 The Middle East Monarchy 93 3.4.1.1 Jordan 95 3.4.1.2 Yemen 96 3.4.1.3 Bahrain 97 3.4.1.4 Kuwait 100 3.4.1.5 Islamic Revolution in Iran 101 5 3.5 Conclusion 104 Chapter 4: Introducing Oman: History and Society 108 4.1 Introduction: Oman's backwardness 110 4.2 Geographical Location 108 4.3 Demography and Social Structure of Oman 112 4.4 History of the Sultanate: The Establishment of the Elected State 116 4.4.1 Sa'id ibn Taymur ( 1932- 1970) 125 4.4.1.2 The Nature of Sa'id's Regime 128 4.4.1.3 The Challenges to Sa'id's Regime 128 4.4.1.4 The Dhofar Rebellion 131 4.4.2 The coup of23 July 1970 135 4.5 Society 138 4.6 Conclusion 147 Chapter 5: The Interaction of Economic and Political Development 148 5.1 Introduction 149 5.2 Oman before 1970 150 5.3 The National Income Since the 1970s 151 5.3.1 The Main Income 151 5.3.2 Diversification of Income 153 5.3.3 Fisheries and Agriculture 157 5.3.4 Tourism 160 5.3.5 Privatization Policy 161 5.3.6 External Investment 164 5.3.7 Vision of 2020 167 5.3.8 W orId Trade Organization 169 6 5.4 State- Building 170 5.5 Education 175 5.6 Social Affairs 180 5.7 Health 182 5.8 Media and Development 186 5.9 Crime, Law and Order 188 5.10 State and Labour 189 5.11 Other Services 190 5.12 Conclusion 191 Chapter 6: Oman: Progress Towards Democracy 193 6.1 Introduction 193 6.2 The Establishment of Ibadhiah 193 6.3 Oman's Administrated Structure 197 6.4 The Government Structure 199 6.5 Fonnal Democracy in Oman 201 6.5.1 Structure and Operation of Parliament 204 6.5.2 Majlis Al-Shura (consultative Council) 210 6.5.2.1 Session and Duties of the Council 210 6.5.2.2 Membership Criteria 226 6.5.2.3 Criticism of Mujlis Ash-Shura 228 6.5.3 Majlis Al-Dawlah (state Council) 231 6.5.3.1 Membership Criteria 231 6.5.3.2 Duties of the Council 232 6.5.3.3 Criticism of the State Council 233 7 6.6 Informal Democracy in Oman 234 6.6.1 The Media 236 6.6.2 Arabic Website (Sablat Alarab) 237 6.6.3 Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry 238 6.6.4 Businessmen Council 239 6.6.5 Democratization and External Actors 240 6.7 Conclusion 241 Chapter 7: Oman's Foreign Policy Searches for Legitimacy 244 7.1 Introduction 244 7.2 About Oman 245 7.3 The Effect of Location on Omani Foreign Policy 248 7.4 The Important Players in Oman's Foreign Policy 251 7.5 Maintaining Arab and Islamic Identity 253 7.6 Relationship with other Countries and the Regional and International Organizations 255 7.6.1 Regional and International Organizations 255 7.6.1.1 Membership of the United Nations 255 7.6.1.2 Gulf Co-operation Council 256 7.6.1.3 The Arab League 262 7.6.1.4 Damascus Declaration 265 7.6.1.5 Organisation of the Islamic Conference 265 7.7 Economic and other Aspects of Co-operation between Oman World Organizations 266 7.8 Relationship with Arab Countries 267 7.9 Relations with Iran 268 7.10 International Relations 272 8 7.11 Dealing with International Crises 274 7.11.1 Development of Palestinian Problem and its impacts on Oman (society and the state) 274 7.11.2 The Omani Position towards the Water Question in the Middle East 280 7.11.3 The Omani Position toward the War between Iran and Iraq 283 7.11.4 The Second Gulf War 286 7.11.5 Iraq in Crisis with the United Nations 289 7.12 Conclusion 290 Chapter 8: Conclusion, Democratisation in Oman 293 References 312 Appendices 337 9 List of Tables and Diagrams 4.1 Population of Oman in Regions, 2000 113 4.2 Population of Oman by Sex and Age, 2000 115 5.1 Oman's GDP by Economic Activity 154 5.2 Profile of Oil Production in Oman, 1998-2000 156 5.3 Agricultural Productions in Oman, 1999-2000 158 5.4 Fish Production In Oman, 1997-2001 158 5.5 Estimated Production in Agriculture and Fisheries 159 5.6 Estimated Number of Animals 159 5.7 Imports and Exports 164 5.8 Value of Recorded Merchandise Imports (the top ten) 165 5.9 Value of Recorded Merchandise (the top ten) 165 5.10GDP at Market Price 166 5.11 Estimated Production of Crude Oil, Gas, Copper, Gold and Silver 167 5.12 Government Employees 172 5.13 Private Sector Employments 173 5.14 Civil Service Employees in Ministries and Government Organisations by Educational Level 174 5.15 Skilled Labour 175 5.16 Educational Profile of Students in Oman, 1970-99 178 5.17 Government Education Institutions 180 5.18 Women's Associations and Membership in Oman No. of Recipients of Social Welfare by Governorate region 181 10 5.19 Health and Medical Care 183 5.20 Patients Attending Ministry of Health Hospitals and Health Centres 185 5.21 Health Educational Institutions and Student Enrolment in Oman 186 5.22 Crime Statistics for 1996 and 2000 188 6.1 The Tum Out of Voters in Muscat 220 6.2 The Tum Out of Voters in Batinah 221 6.3 The Tum Out of Voters in Musandam 222 6.4 The Tum Out of Voters in AI Dakhliah 223 6.5 The Tum Out of Voters in AI Dhirah 224 6.6 The Tum Out of Voters in Sharqiah 224 6.7 The Tum Out of Voters in Wusta 225 6.8 The Tum Out of Voters in Dhofar 225 11 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION "Democracy is often touted as diminishing the likelihood of war, protecting human freedom, and facilitating economic growth.