I - ANTECEDENT PROXIMITY VALUES STRATIFIED FOR A SEVERE AND NON-SEVERE CONVECTIVE SAMPLE: A PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION Robert P. Harnack and Joseph R. Cermak III Department of Meteorology Cook College-New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey New Brunswick, New Jersey Abstract quently occur. The present study uses various kinematic/ dynamic fields and applies them to portions of the Northeastern A pilot study was undertaken to try a methodology for devel­ United States for investigating environmental conditions occur­ oping a dynamic climatology for the severe thunderstorm envi­ ring with severe wind/tornado events. ronment and to determine differences on severe local storms There are several reasons for continuing to study SELS using (SELS) days from non-SELS convective days in the Northeast­ data from the synoptic scale data network. First, forecasts ern U.S. Calculations of81 mainly kinematic/dynamic variables related to convective phenomena have room for improvement. are made at mandatOlY upper levels. The 24 cases used for Second, traditional associations between parameters and SELS, each sample are drawn from the period 1979-1986. The area such as the Miller (1972) checklist, need modification in the studied includes much of the lower elevations of the Mid-Atlan­ less baroclinic environments of summer, as suggested by Mad­ tic and New England states. Only SELS events occurring within dox and Doswell (1982a). Lastly, a closer scrutiny of severe 3 hours after standard upper-air sounding times (0000 and weather from a kinematic and dynamic point of view can 1200 UTC) are added to the SELS sample. Calculations of improve predictability if it is shown that certain fields correlate each variable are made at a reference point located near the well with severe events. Since National Weather Service (NWS) reported severe convective location for SELS events and at offices and other forecasters now have the ability to compute Trenton, New Jersey for the non-SELS events. A t-test is per­ the fields examined in this study, they can improve prediction formed to determine if there was a significant difference of SELS occurrences if important signatures can be found. The between the two samples for each variable. fields used in this study are increasingly used operationally, The significance testing reveals that 21 of the 81 variables though guideline or critical values have not been proposed. The had sample mean differences that are significant at the ten small sample used in this study will not immediately change percent level or better. Compared to the non-SELS convective this situation, however, the methodology employed here consti­ sample, the SELS environment tended to be a bit warmer and tutes a framework on which to build such a result in the future. drier in the lower troposphere, had a steeper lapse rate in As such, this effort is a pilot study on which to build a different the mid-troposphere, had more convergent lower-tropospheric kind of climatology, that of dynamic processes that relate to winds, had less cyclonic flow in the mid-troposphere, and had the environment in which SELS develop. Like any climatology slowerflow speed in the upper-troposphere. The absolute differ­ it should be geographically and seasonally stratified. The North­ ences tended to be small even for variables having significant east U.S. region is used in this study, but the small number of sample differences, indicating that the environment above the cases precluded seasonal stratification. boundary layer just prior to a severe convective event is only The choice of variables to examine in conjunction with SELS marginally different to that for ordinary convection for the occurrences should be based on physical considerations. Factors variables tested. for deep, moist convection have been identified as: 1) sufficient low-level moisture, 1. Introduction 2) sufficient instability of prevailing air mass, and Severe Local Storms (SELS) are defined as convective events 3) presence of a lifting mechanism in the lower troposphere. which have at least one of the following: Given that deep, moist convection can develop, additional fac­ 1) surface wind speed greater than or equal to 50 kt, tors that can affect SELS potential are: 2) presence of hail greater than or equal to 19 mm (3/4 in.) 1) the degree of instability, in diameter, or 2) presence of an elevated, lower tropospheric inversion 3) presence of a tornado. (lid), and 3) the nature of the vertical wind profile. Such storms often have a direct impact on human lives and property, so various diagnostic studies have been carried out The choice of processes to examine in a SELS study should using parameters that have been identified or proposed as pre­ be based on these factors, on findings in previous SELS studies, cursors to severe weather outbreaks. These parameters include and/or on theoretical considerations such as quasi-geostrophic stability measures, wind shear statistics, locations of jet max­ diagnostics (e.g., omega equation). This implies that a large ima, strength and location of low-level convergence zones, and number of variables can justifiably be examined in conjunction other various kinematic and dynamic fields. The latter have with SELS occurrence. included wind divergence, vorticity advection, thermal advec­ Though most convective studies note that a combination of tion, and moisture advection. These studies have mainly focused ingredients is needed for SELS development, many of the stud­ on the Midwest-Great Plains regions where SELS most fre- ies emphasize just one or a few. Lower tropospheric warm 2 Volume 20 Number I October, 1995 3 thermal advection was found to have played a significant role fields have, for the most part, been case studies. An exception in convective cases examined by Maddox and Doswell (1982b), to this is the study of Giordano and Fritsch (1991), which Johns (1984), and Schwartz et al. (1987). Low-level conver­ includes a comparison between selected environmental condi­ gence was emphasized, among other factors , by Johns (1984), tions (mainly pressure, temperature, moisture, wind/wind shear, Livingston and Wilson (1986), and Heideman and Fritsch and synoptic positioning) for strong tornadoes and flash flood (1988); while Kloth and Davies-Jones (1980), McNulty (1978) producing rainstorms. The main differences reported between and Whitney (1977) highlighted jet stream location and charac­ the two samples is that low-level moisture is greater for the teristics as related to convective episodes. The low to mid-level rainstorms, and low-level wind shear and upper-level wind moisture field and related advection was a focus in explaining speeds are greater for the tornado cases. The sample used for the characteristics of observed convection in the study of Con­ their study consisted of events occurring at widely varying time way and Carbone (1989), in the convective lid study of Graziano lags from upper-air sounding times. This has the advantage of and Carlson (1987), and in the forecasting study of Colquhoun increasing the sample size but introduces an important inhomo­ (1987). A few studies have employed Q-vector diagnostics geneity into the sample of cases. using the theory of Hoskins et al. (1978) to find the initial The present study narrows the convective events to a three­ source of lift for convection. These include Grumm and Siebers hour time period at the expense of having a much larger sample (1988) using numerical model data and Barnes (1985) for an drawn from the period used. An important objective of this individual case. Barnes (1986) later found that convergent mid­ pilot study is to start a more systematic examination of some tropospheric Q-vectors, implying large-scale forced low-level important large-scale kinematic/dynamic processes near the lifting, were common in the 32 convective events he studied. time of SELS occurrence. In particular it is desirable to compare Characteristics of the wind profile, including wind shear, have aggregate values and frequencies of variables for SELS cases received considerable attention in relation to severe weather to those for non-SELS to see if there are important differences occurrence especially in the studies of Brooks et al. (1994), between the two samples. Johns (1984), Doswell (1988), and Stone (1988). Stability indi­ Mandatory level data from 850, 700, 500, 300, 250, and 200 ces have long been used in diagnostic and predictive studies mb are used to generate many kinematic/dynamic fields. The for convection. Of the more recent studies where stability has procedures that are followed, especially the use of only upper­ been a prime focus, the investigations of Stone (1988) and air mandatory level data, meant that important boundary-layer Davies (1988) are noteworthy. Increasingly, though, recent processes are neglected. These processes are apt to contribute studies are showing the direct importance of thermodynamic to most SELS occurrences and to be dominant in some. How­ instability and lower tropospheric wind shear characteristics on ever, to the extent that forecasters use upper-air pressure level severe thunderstorm occurrence, especially that associated with data to assess SELS potential, the results obtained may be useful the 'supercells' . Much of this literature is discussed in Moller as augmentation to surface or vertical profile based studies. et al. (1994). The procedures used here follow that of Harnack and Quinlan 2. Methodology (1987) to some extent, but a more comprehensive list of vari­ ables is examined and a non-SELS sample is employed for Upper-air data for 27 stations in the Eastern U.S. are collected comparison. The earlier study emphasized precursor (i.e., 3-15 (Fig. 1). The dates used (24) for the SELS sample are selected h prior) and concurrent (plus or minus 3 h) conditions to SELS using the publication Storm Data (National Climatic Data Cen­ in the Northeast U.S.