Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority I-405 Level 2 Traffic & Revenue Study Interstate 405 (Sepulveda Pass) ExpressLanes Intermediate (Level II) Traffic & Revenue Study FINAL REPORT April 15, 2019 Interstate 405 (Sepulveda Pass) ExpressLanes Intermediate (Level II) Traffic & Revenue Study Contract No. AE275020011497 WSP Project No. 28078B Prepared for: Prepared by: In Partnership with: ECONorthwest System Metrics Group, Inc. AFSHA Consulting, Inc. Redhill Group, Inc. Document Control Version Date Initials Originator 11/3/2017 KT/SP/MW Checker 11/5/2017 DW Back Checker 11/16/2017 BB Verified By 11/17/2017 DW Revision Log Revision Date Description Submitted by 0 11/17/2017 Draft T&R Report submitted to Metro DW 1 01/19/2018 Revised T&R Report in response to comments KT/SP/MW/BB 2 01/23/2018 Draft Final T&R Report with Executive Summary DH/MW 3 01/24/2018 Draft Final T&R Report with Executive Summary to Document DW Editor 4 01/26/2018 Draft Final T&R Report with Executive Summary to Metro DW 5 03/16/2018 Final T&R Report DW 6 04/15/2019 Updated Executive Summary (Metro) AT/LT I-405 Level 2 Traffic & Revenue Study Table of Contents 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................ ES-Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.1 Overview ........................................................................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.2 Methodology of T&R Study ...........................................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.3 Stated Preference Survey ...............................................ES-Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.3.1 Community Opinions ................................................................................... ES-3 1.3.2 Level of Service.............................................................................................. ES-5 1.3.3 Person Throughput ....................................................................................... ES-5 1.3.4 Travel Times .................................................................................................. ES-7 1.3.5 Travel Speeds ................................................... ES-Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.3.6 Weekday Toll Rates, Traffic and Revenue ..................................................... ES-7 1.3.7 Annual Potential Gross Toll Revenues ......................................................... ES-8 1.3.8 Annual Net Revenue Projections.................... ES-Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.4 Next Steps .................................................................................................................. ES-13 2.0 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Background and Objectives ............................................................................................. 1 2.2 Project Location and Regional Context ............................................................................ 3 2.3 Previous and Related Studies ........................................................................................... 6 2.4 Study Approach ................................................................................................................ 8 3.0 CURRENT CORRIDOR CHARACTERISTICS ............................................................................. 10 3.1 Existing Highway System ............................................................................................... 10 3.2 Historical Traffic Trends ................................................................................................. 14 3.3 Traffic Demand Profile ................................................................................................... 16 3.3.1 Average Weekday Traffic .................................................................................. 16 3.3.2 Day-of-Week / Daily Variations........................................................................ 21 3.4 Corridor Performance ..................................................................................................... 23 3.4.1 Vehicle-Hours of Delay .................................................................................... 23 3.4.2 Travel Times ..................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Vehicle Classification and Occupancy ........................................................................... 29 3.6 Congestion Analysis ....................................................................................................... 32 3.6.1 Bottlenecks Analysis ........................................................................................ 32 3.6.2 HOV Ingress/Egress Location Analysis .......................................................... 36 4.0 STATED PREFERENCE SURVEY RESULTS ............................................................................... 39 4.1 Survey Methodology ....................................................................................................... 39 4.1.1 Sampling Plan .................................................................................................. 39 Page ES-i I-405 Level 2 Traffic & Revenue Study 4.1.2 Survey Design .................................................................................................. 40 4.2 Survey Results Analysis .................................................................................................. 41 4.2.1 Respondent Travel Profile ............................................................................... 41 4.2.2 Opinions on Congestion Pricing ..................................................................... 48 4.2.3 Respondent Demographic Profile ................................................................... 54 4.3 Value of Time Estimation ............................................................................................... 58 4.3.1 Methodology .................................................................................................... 58 5.0 SOCIO-ECONOMIC GROWTH REVIEW .................................................................................. 62 5.1 County Control Total Adjustments ................................................................................ 62 5.2 Key Development Area Allocations ................................................................................ 65 5.3 Socio-Economic Growth Findings ................................................................................. 68 6.0 MODEL DEVELOPMENT & METHODOLOGY........................................................................ 70 6.1 SCAG TDM Base Year Validation ................................................................................... 70 6.2 Rapid Toll Optimization Model (RapidTOM) ............................................................... 72 7.0 TOLL SCENARIOS MODELED .................................................................................................. 74 7.1 Toll Scenario Variables ................................................................................................... 76 7.1.1 Lane Configuration .......................................................................................... 76 7.1.2 Access Method ................................................................................................. 76 7.1.3 Toll Policy ......................................................................................................... 79 7.1.4 HOV Toll Exemptions ...................................................................................... 80 7.1.5 Toll Operating Objectives ................................................................................ 80 7.2 Toll Scenarios Considered and Selected ........................................................................ 80 8.0 CORRIDOR TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE .................................................................................... 82 8.1 Future No-Build Traffic Projection ................................................................................. 82 8.2 Future Toll Scenario Traffic Projection .......................................................................... 84 8.2.1 Estimated Weekday Demand .......................................................................... 84 8.2.2 Express Lane Traffic Share ............................................................................... 91 8.2.3 Express Lane LOS Breach ................................................................................ 92 8.2.4 Travel Time Analysis ........................................................................................ 93 8.2.5 Travel speeds analysis ..................................................................................... 96 9.0 ESTIMATED WEEKDAY MODEL RESULTS .............................................................................. 98 9.1 Context and Findings from the Weekday Model Outputs ............................................ 98 9.2 Weekday Revenue and Trips by Time-Period for 2025 .................................................. 99 9.3 Weekday Daily Revenue by Scenario and Toll Operating Objective Case for 2025 ... 107 9.4 Typical Toll Rates .......................................................................................................... 112 Page ES-ii I-405 Level 2 Traffic & Revenue Study 9.5 Comparison to Existing ExpressLanes Toll Rates ....................................................... 115 10.0 ANNUAL GROSS TOLL TRAFFIC &