AUSTRALIA Reporting season outlook 24 July 2008 Battered & bruised - earnings growth for most still under pressure We approached the February 2008 reporting season with fears that EPSg would wilt under the pressures of the ‘credit crunch’ and slowing economic growth. Although FY08 EPSg forecasts weakened throughout that reporting season, the negative earnings momentum accelerated from that point onwards. Forecasts for FY08 have indeed succumbed to those pressures, with the Australian market and all sectors now forecasting EPSg of zero to negative. So as we approach this reporting season and with FY08 EPSg forecasts already downgraded we ask: is the worst over? While FY08 expectations may now be sufficiently negative, the EPSg forecasts for FY09 however still appear optimistic, particularly industrials which are still around +10% we believe significant risks remain. So as the focus shifts to the upcoming year’s EPSg downgrades will still be potent. Focus and risks shifting to FY09 EPSg forecasts Inside Overall EPSg for FY08 may slip further as we progress through this reporting season. Stock performance will be driven in our view by two critical factors: Table of contents 2 Earnings delivery on FY08 EPSg forecasts, be it high or low; and Reporting season calendar 3 Guidance or commentary around the expectations for EPSg in FY09. Any Stock Index 4 stock where the market is forced to lower its FY09 EPSg expectations is likely to see its share prices under significant pressure. Battered & bruised - earnings growth for most still under pressure 5 Despite the downgrades seen already, our analysis suggests that the forecasts are expecting operating margin expansion to come from domestic, mid-size, and Analysis of profit and cashflow forecasts13 cyclical stocks at a time of a sharp slowdown in the local non resource economy. Quantitative method to predicting earnings Stocks include: QAN, SEV, VPG, CWN, DJS, BEN, FXJ, CCL, GMG, CRG, surprises 29 LLC, FGL, NAB, GFF, AWC (even beyond the capex downgrade), BKW, Profit tables 35 IOF, MGR (already downgraded), OST, CER, AMC, FCL, CMJ, AIO. Profit Outlook – by sector 39 Stocks with no excessive EBITDA margin forecasts that may surprise given the current favourable industry dynamics are: WPL, OSH, LGL, WOR, BLY, LEI, OXR, WOW, UGL, ASX and COH. FY09 EPSg forecasts for industrials are the key downgrade risk Forecast EPS growth for Forecast EPS growth year shown (%) EPSg following previous periods of slowing for year shown (%) economic growth and rising inflation 20 20 04 So will FY09 EPSg follow previous pattern of EPSg 16 95 downgrades? 16 03 05 12 09 12 00 8 99 07 8 97 02 4 98 06 4 08 96 01 0 0 Jan-93 Jul-94 Jan-96 Jul-97 Jan-99 Jul-00 Jan-02 Jul-03 Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 -4 -4 Source:Macquarie Research, July 2008 Macquarie Research Equities - Report Profit Outlook Table of contents Reporting season calendar 3 Stock Index 4 Battered & bruised - earnings growth for most still under pressure 5 Analysis of profit and cashflow forecasts 13 Quantitative method to predicting earnings surprises 29 Profit tables 35 Profit outlook by sector: Consumer discretionary – media 39 Consumer discretionary – retailing 43 Consumer discretionary – hotels, restaurants and leisure 50 Consumer staples – food and beverages 55 Emerging leaders 59 Energy 75 Financials – banks 79 Financials – diversified 82 Financials – insurance 87 Healthcare and biotechnology 92 Infrastructure 97 Materials – building, chemicals, paper, packaging, and contractors 101 Materials – metals, mining and steel 109 Real estate 117 Telecommunications 130 Transport 134 Utilities 138 24 July 2008 2 Macquarie Research Equities - Report Profit Outlook Reporting season calendar July/August 2008 MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY 21 22 23 24 25 PFI NZ Int result NZ$8.2m GUD FY result $36.8m ERA Int result $22.9m 28 29 30 31 1 ALZ Int result $62.9m ALS FY result $57.6m AWC Int result $108.2m ALS FY result $57.6m OGC Int result $20.8m CNA Int result $241.6m 4 5 6 7 8 AXA Int result $82m CXP Int result $35.4m TAH FY result $521.3m TEL NZ FY result NVT FY result $35.8m NWS FY result US$3413.4m NZ$711.2m WAN FY result $119.2m 11 12 13 14 15 BEN FY result $222.9m APN Int result $72.6m BOL FY result $19.4m ASX FY result $369.9m SAI FY result $14.4m CRG FY result $60.5m BKN FY result $56.4m CBA FY result $5099.6m CCP FY result $4.9m SGN Int result $16.9m RKN Int result $5.5m COH FY result $116.5m CPU FY result US$301.3m FCL FY result $64.6m UGL FY result $119.4m WOR FY result $320.7m FBU NZ FY result NZ$440.9m LEI FY result $601.9m REF FY result $20.9m PMP FY result $86m TLS FY result $3765m SGP FY result $1022.1m 18 19 20 21 22 ANN FY result US$99.4m BLD FY result $235.6m AGK FY result $127.2m ABC Int result $50.2m AWE FY result $298m COU FY result $24.1m CFX FY result $521.7m AIO FY result $-95.1m AIA NZ FY result NZ$93.3m BBG FY result $182m IIN FY result $19.4m CMJ FY result $6101.9m BXB FY result US$645.1m AMC FY result $321.6m CTX Int result $321.5m OIC NZ Int result NZ$7.9m CPA FY result $363.8m CCL Int result $166.1m CAB FY result $62.8m CYG FY result $5.6m SEK FY result $76.4m GWT FY result $53.3m CEY FY result $282.4m CLO FY result $63.5m EBO NZ FY result HTA Int result $-88.2m CSL FY result $714.6m DOW FY result $157.4m NZ$15.7m JBH FY result $64.4m CWN FY result $367.3m DXS FY result $608.6m IAG FY result $58.3m LEP FY result $27.7m KZL FY result $71.7m FUN Int result $10.8m PPC FY result $45.9m LGL Int result US$50.4m MAH FY result $47.6m FXJ FY result $399.1m SLM FY result $14.8m MND FY result $65.9m MAP Int result $87.9m HSP FY result $73.5m NCM FY result $215.4m MOF FY result $356.7m ILU Int result $10.7m OKN FY result $26.1m MYO Int result $-5.7m IVC Int result $13.5m OSH Int result US$128.7m OXR Int result $-31.5m KCN FY result $49m OST FY result $276.4m PBG FY result $117m MIG FY result $1661.8m PGW NZ FY result NZ$70.3m PPT FY result $128.3m MIN FY result $47.2m TSO FY result $34.7m SFH FY result $24.1m MLE FY result $43m THL NZ FY result NZ$16.4m PPX FY result $63m TRS FY result $16.9m QAN FY result $1000.7m WYL FY result $11.4m QBE Int result $919.4m SHL FY result $246.3m STO Int result $328.9m WES FY result $1019.6m 25 26 27 28 29 AEO FY result $48.9m AIR NZ FY result NZ$186.1m ABP FY result $92m ALL Int result $92.1m AFG FY result $31.6m ASB FY result $47.5m APA FY result $72.3m AVG FY result $7.1m AMP Int result $340m BBP FY result $82.4m CDR FY result $-266.4m BLY Int result US$106.8m BBC FY result $38.7m CNP FY result $-1021.1m DUE FY result $115m CGF FY result $-29m BVA FY result $6.4m CER FY result $-147.2m FKP FY result $162.9m FWD FY result $33.3m FAN FY result $19.3m CHC FY result $75.1m CEU FY result $-7.5m HGI Int result GB$33.6m IGO FY result $57.2m GFF FY result $192.8m CND FY result $11.3m ENE FY result $22.9m IIF FY result $331.5m MCC FY result $85.3m IOF FY result $209.7m FGL FY result $825.7m ENV FY result $157.4m LLC FY result $451.6m PEM FY result $11m PRT FY result $38.1m FLT FY result $148.7m GCL FY result $22m MCG FY result $-409.4m ROC Int result US$35m RHC FY result $114.2m HWI FY result $20.4m GPT Int result $208.7m MDT FY result $40m TAP Int result $-7.8m RIC FY result $19m MGR FY result $518.4m HST FY result $37.6m ORG FY result $570.5m SKC NZ FY result NZ$51.2m PGA FY result $22.6m MCQ FY result $67.9m POT NZ FY result NZ$42.6m SKI Int result $18.5m PRY FY result $-99.9m MCW FY result $136.1m TTS FY result $263m SPT FY result $38.9m RDF FY result $10.2m MMG FY result $54.9m TSE FY result $82.6m SMX FY result $25.3m MRE Int result $79m VBA FY result $90.1m SUN FY result $586.1m MRM FY result $17.7m VPG FY result $-1.3m RCY FY result $17.8m WOW FY result $1594m RPX FY result $9.6m SFC FY result $11.1m SUL FY result $27.4m TCL FY result $-32.7m TGR FY result $20m TPI FY result $175.4m WDS FY result $17.3m WPL Int result $991.2m WTF FY result $34.7m 24 July 2008 3 Macquarie Research Equities - Report Profit Outlook Stock Index ASX Code Company name Page No. ASX Code Company name Page No. ASX Code Company name Page No. Australian stocks GUD GUD Holdings Ltd 59-74 SFC Schaffer Corporation 59-74 ABC Adelaide Brighton 101-108 GWT GWA International 59-74 SFH Specialty Fashion Group 59-74 ABP Abacus Property Group 117-129 HFA HFA Holdings 59-74 SGB St George Bank 79-81 ABS ABC Learning Centres 59-74 HGI Henderson Group plc 82-86 SGM Sims Group Limited 109-116 AEO Austereo Group 39-42 HSP Healthscope Limited 92-96 SGN STW Communications Group 59-74 AFG Allco Finance Group 59-74 HST Hastie Group 59-74 SGP Stockland 117-129 AGK AGL Energy 138-141 HTA Hutchison Telecommunication 130-133 SGT SingTel 130-133 AHE Automotive Holdings Group 59-74 HVN Harvey Norman 43-49 SGX Sino Gold Mining 109-116 AIO Asciano Group 97-100 HWI Housewares International Ltd 59-74 SHL Sonic Healthcare Ltd 92-96 AIX Aust Infrastructure Fund 97-100 IAG Insurance Australia Group 87-91 SIP Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd 92-96 ALL Aristocrat Leisure 50-54 IBA IBA Health 92-96 SKI Spark Infrastructure Group 138-141 ALS Alesco 59-74 IGO Independence Group NL 109-116 SLM Salmat 59-74 ALZ Australand Holdings 117-129 IIF ING Industrial Fund 117-129 SMX SMS Management & Technology Ltd 59-74 AMC Amcor 101-108 IIN iiNet Limited 130-133 SOT SP Telemedia Limited 130-133 AMP AMP Limited 87-91 ILU Iluka Resources 109-116 SPN SP AusNet 138-141 ANN Ansell Limited 92-96 INL Intec 109-116 SPT Spotless Group Ltd 59-74 ANZ ANZ Bank 79-81 INP Innamincka Petroleum 75-78 SRL Straits Resources 109-116 APA APA Group 138-141 IOF ING Office Fund 117-129 SRV Servcorp