National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment and Designing of Integrated Coastal Management and Adaptation Strategic Plan for Timor-Leste Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Report February 2018 © UNDP 2018 The report is contracted by United Nations Development Programme, UNDP and Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, MAF and prepared by Global CAD, 2018. The Copyright of the report is the property of UNDP and the Government of Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste, 2018 1-2 List of Abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank AL-GIS Agriculture and Land Use Geographic Information System ATSEA Arafura and Timor Seas Ecosystem Action AUSAID Australian Agency for International Development CC Climate Change CCCBTL Centre for Climate Change and Biodiversity Timor-Leste CBA Cost Benefit Analysis CEA Cost-Effectiveness Analysis CHW Coastal Hazard Wheel CI Conservation International CIVAT Coastal Integrity Vulnerability Assessment Tool cm centimetres CO2 Carbon Dioxide COP Conference of Parties CTC Coral Triangle Center CVA Coastal Vulnerability Assessment CVI Coastal Vulnerability Index DED Detailed Engineering Design DEM Digital Elevation Model DRR Disaster Risk Reduction EBA Ecosystem-Based Adaptation ECMWF European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EU European Union EWS Early Warning System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FGD Focus Group Discussion GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographical Information System GIZ German Corporation for International Cooperation GoTL Government of Timor-Leste GPS Global Positioning System Ha Hectare HAT Highest Astronomical Tides ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management IFC International Finance Corporation INC Initial National Communication INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IOD Indian Ocean Dipole Mode IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPO Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ITCZ Inter-tropical Convergences Zone JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency Km Kilometre KOICA Korea International Cooperation Agency LAS Live Access Server LAT Lowest Astronomical Tides M meters i MAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Ma.s.l Meters above sea level MCA Multi-Criteria Analysis MCIE Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Environment MDG Millennium Development Goal MED Ministry of Economy and Development mm millimetres MMI Mercali Modified Intensity MoF Ministry of Finance MoH Ministry of Health MoJ Ministry of Justice MPA Marine Protected Area MPI Multidimensional Poverty Index MPSI Ministry of Planning and Strategic Investment MPW Ministry of Public Works MSS Ministry of Social Solidarity MTAC Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture NAP National Adaptation Plan NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NDCC National Directorate for Climate Change NDMD National Disaster Management Directorate NGO Non-governmental organization NZAID New Zealand Aid Programme PCA-Cluster Principal Component Analysis-Cluster PGA Peak Ground Acceleration PTHA Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment RDTL Republika Demokratika Timor-Leste RQD Rock Quality Designation SDP Strategic Development Plan 2011-2030 SLR Sea Level Rise SMB Svedrup, Munk, and Bretscheider SMS Short Messaging Service SRES Special Report on Emission Scenario SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission SSE State Secretariat for Environment SSL Sea Surface Level SST Sea surface temperature SWAN Simulating Wave Nearshore SWH Significant Wave Height TL Timor-Leste UNCSD United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNTL Universidade Nacional de Timor Lorosae US$ United States Dollar USAID United States Agency for International Development USGS United States Geological Survey VA Vulnerability Assessment WMO World Meteorological Organization ii Table of Content List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ i Table of Content .................................................................................................................................... iii List of Annex ............................................................................................................................................ v List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... ix Glossary ................................................................................................................................................... x Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. xvii 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Background .......................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Scope and Objective ............................................................................................................ 1-1 1.3 Scope and methodology of this report ................................................................................ 1-2 2 Coastal System and Climate Change ............................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 Definition of Coastal Zone.................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Coastal Vulnerability Assessment ........................................................................................ 2-2 2.3 Factor Influencing Coastal Inundation and Erosion Problems ............................................. 2-4 2.3.1 Physical Factors ............................................................................................................ 2-5 2.3.2 Human Factors ............................................................................................................. 2-7 3 Physical Characteristics of Coastal and Land Areas of Timor-Leste ............................................. 3-1 3.1 Geographical characteristics and administrative boundary ................................................ 3-1 3.2 Geomorphological and Geological Condition ...................................................................... 3-4 3.2.1 Geomorphology, Topography, and Bathymetry .......................................................... 3-4 3.2.2 Tectonic Setting – Regional Geology and Bathymetry ................................................. 3-8 3.2.3 Geological Condition of Timor Leste Coastal ............................................................... 3-9 3.3 Climate Condition .............................................................................................................. 3-11 3.3.1 Temperature .............................................................................................................. 3-11 3.3.2 Rainfall ....................................................................................................................... 3-12 3.3.3 Wind ........................................................................................................................... 3-16 3.4 Ocean Condition ................................................................................................................ 3-19 3.4.1 Sea Surface Temperature and Acidity ........................................................................ 3-19 3.4.2 Ocean Current ............................................................................................................ 3-21 3.4.3 Tides ........................................................................................................................... 3-22 3.4.4 Ocean Waves.............................................................................................................. 3-24 3.5 Land Use ............................................................................................................................. 3-26 3.6 Ecosystem .......................................................................................................................... 3-27 4 Hazards Identification .................................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1 Coastal Erosion ..................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Landslide .............................................................................................................................. 4-2 4.3 Flash Flood ........................................................................................................................... 4-4 4.4 Earthquake ........................................................................................................................... 4-4 4.5 Tsunami ................................................................................................................................ 4-7 4.6 Strong Wind and Storm Surges ............................................................................................ 4-9 4.7 Drought .............................................................................................................................