An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States: 1952 to 2050 Timber Analysis of the An An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States: 1952 to 2050 A Technical Document Supporting the 2000 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FOREST SERVICE An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States: 1952 to 2050 Richard W. Haynes Technical Coordinator U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station Portland, Oregon General Technical Report PNW-GTR-560 February 2003 Contributing Darius M. Adams is a professor at Oregon State University, Department of Forest Authors Resources, Corvallis, OR 97331-5703. Ralph J. Alig is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331. Brett J. Butler is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, 11 Campus Blvd., Suite 200, Newtown Square, PA 19073. David J. Brooks is an analyst, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 600 17th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20508. At the time this manuscript was developed, he was a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331. Irene Durbak is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, 1 Gifford Pinchot Drive, Madison, WI 53726-2398. Richard W. Haynes is a research forester, U.S. Depart- ment of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208. Peter J. Ince is a research forester, timber demand and technology assessment research, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, 1 Gifford Pinchot Drive, Madison, WI 53726-2398. David B. McKeever is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, 1 Gifford Pinchot Drive, Madison, WI 53726-2398. John R. Mills is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208. Kenneth E. Skog is project leader for the timber demand and technology assessment research unit, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, 1 Gifford Pinchot Drive, Madison, WI 53726-2398. Xiaoping Zhou is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208. Abstract Haynes, Richard W., tech. coord. 2003. An analysis of the timber situation in the United States: 1952 to 2050. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-560. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 254 p. For more than a century, national assessments of supply and demand trends for timber have helped shape perceptions of future commodity consumption and resource trends. These perceptions have guided forest policy. Since 1952, U.S. timber harvest has risen by nearly 67 percent, accompanied by growing timber inventories on both public and private lands, but there has been a decline in the critical private timberland base. The current assessment envisions forest products consumption rising 42 percent by 2050 and marked shifts in the extent and location of domestic and imported supplies. Pro- spective shifts include a temporary near-term decline in U.S. roundwood harvest and an increase in the share of consumption from imports. In the longer term, U.S. timber harvest expands by 24 percent. As a result of steady improvement in growth and pro- ductivity on U.S. forest lands, this increased harvest is accommodated by continued expansion in inventory despite decreasing area in the private timberland base. Keywords: RPA, assessments, timber, projections, supply, demand, management alternatives, resource trends. Executive Summary For more than a century, the United States has developed periodic national assess- The Fifth Resources ments of future supply and demand prospects for timber that have helped shape Planning Act (RPA) perceptions of resource trends and needs for new or modified forest policies. Since Timber Assessment 1952, U.S. timber harvest has risen by nearly 67 percent, accompanied by growing timber inventories on both public and private lands but a decline in the critical private timberland base. Projections to 2050 in the fifth RPA timber assessment show the forest products sector continuing to change, with U.S. timber harvest expanding by an additional 24 percent to meet increased consumption needs. As a result of steady improvement in growth and productivity on U.S. forest lands, this harvest increment can be accommodated by continued expansion in inventory despite decreasing area in the private timberland base. Highlights Projections to 2050 show the forest products sector changing and expanding to meet a 40-percent increase in U.S. consumption of forest products by 2050. The rate of increase is less than one-third the annual rate of increase over the last 33 years owing, in part, to declining use of paper and paperboard per dollar of gross domestic product, and projected relatively stable housing starts. Increasing consumption needs would be met by (1) an increase in U.S. timber harvest of 23 percent, (2) an increase in log, chip, and product imports of 85 percent, and (3) an increase in use of recovered paper of 85 percent. With a near-term economic recession, U.S. roundwood harvest is projected to decrease in the short term, then increase. The proportion of total roundwood needed for domestic product consumption that comes from domestic timber harvest decreases from 80 to 73 percent by 2050. The remainder is provided by harvest in other countries. Per capita U.S. wood and paper product consumption will remain just under three- quarters of a ton per person per year while per capita U.S. timber harvest will decline. Consumption shifts toward pulp and paper products from a 27-percent share in 2000 to a 37-percent share by 2050, and the share of composites increases from 3 to 7 percent. Oriented strandboard (OSB) production displaces softwood plywood, further eroding the importance of solid wood products. Hardwood lumber production grows more slowly than softwood lumber production. Softwood lumber imports from Canada rise in the near term, and after 2015, softwood lumber production increasingly expands largely in the South and, to a limited degree, the Pacific Northwest. Pulp, paper, and paperboard production increases most in the South, mainly in the South-Central region. Relatively stable forest product prices are expected over the next five decades. Soft- wood sawtimber prices are projected to increase over the next 50 years, but at a rate (0.6 percent per year) considerably below that of the past 50 years (1.9 percent per year). Market-based adjustments on private timberlands plus increased imports help meet expected increases in U.S. consumption. Despite generally rising prices, stump- age markets in the West will continue to be weak for small-diameter logs. Hardwood pulpwood prices will remain relatively low but will increase at the end of the projection period with increasing limitations on availability of harvestable hardwoods on nonindus- trial private timberlands in the South. Softwood pulpwood prices will remain at or below recent depressed levels, then rise at the end of the projection. Prices for softwood and hardwood lumber will increase at about the same pace as for sawtimber. The increase rate for softwood lumber is less than for the last 50 years. Prices for oriented strand- board increase faster than for softwood plywood but remain less than the softwood plywood price. Prices for nonstructural panels and for paper and paperboard remain relatively stable through 2050. In the period to 2050, annual U.S. timber harvest is projected to increase 24 percent to 22.4 billion cubic feet. Softwood harvest is projected to increase to 13.7 billion cubic feet and hardwoods to 8.8 billion cubic feet. In addition, the consumption of hardwood agrifiber grows to about 0.1 billion cubic feet. With lumber and plywood composing a decreasing share of total forest products output, virtually all of the projected increase in U.S. harvest is in nonsawtimber trees—trees used for OSB or paper and paperboard. The overall share of harvest from nonsawtimber will increase from 44 percent in 2000 to 66 percent by 2050. The share of total harvest from nonindustrial private land will increase from 61 to 63 percent. Softwood timber inventories will increase by 53 percent, mostly on public timberlands. Hardwood inventories, almost entirely in private forests, will increase by 27 percent. Inventory changes expected for softwoods are similar across regions, but there are differences for hardwoods for which there is a decrease in the South. Over the next 50 years, the species composition is projected to remain comparable to current conditions with the exception that in the South, upland hardwood acres decrease while planted pine acres increase. For the most part, age structure of forests will shift toward a greater proportion of acres in sawtimber with the exception of decreasing sawtimber acres for private hardwood timberland in the South and for private softwood timberland in the West, although in the West, the sawtimber proportion will increase after 2020. Most (80 percent in 1997) of timber harvest takes place in the Eastern United States. Most of the expected increase in harvest will come from managed stands primarily in the South. By 2050, about 60 percent of the softwood timber harvest from private timberlands will come from plantations (both in the South and the Pacific Northwest West) that occupy about 30 percent of the softwood timberland area and less than 20 percent of the total timberland area.