Atlantic Economic Outlook As Vibrant as One Can Have It Mario Lefebvre Director, Centre for Municipal Studies 2011 Atlantic Real Estate Forum Halifax, Nova Scotia June 22, 2011 St. John’s Outlook: Highlights • The St. John’s economy grew by 6.5 per cent in 2010, thanks to gains in offshore oil production and significant growth in construction output. • The construction sector benefitted from stronger housing starts, infrastructure spending, and the start of work on the Long Harbour plant. • Real GDP growth is expected to return to a more moderate 3.7 per cent in 2011 and just 0.9 per cent in 2012. Employment Growth St. John’s (2003–12) Sources: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Unemployment Rate St. John’s (2003–12) Source: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. Disposable Income Growth St. John’s (2003–12) Sources: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Retail Sales Growth St. John’s (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. Construction Output Growth St. John’s (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. Primary and Utilities Output Growth St. John’s (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. Saint John Outlook: Highlights • Saint John’s economy grew by 1.9 per cent in 2010, thanks to recoveries in the manufacturing and construction sectors. • The start-up of the Canaport LNG plant also helped to boost manufacturing output in 2010. • Real GDP growth is expected to remain modest in 2011 and 2012, at 2.1 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively, held back by falling housing starts and a lack of major new non-residential projects. Employment Growth Saint John (2003–12) Sources: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Unemployment Rate Saint John (2003–12) Source: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. Disposable Income Growth Saint John (2003–12) Sources: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Retail Sales Growth Saint John (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. Construction Output Growth Saint John (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. Manufacturing Output Growth Saint John (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. Halifax Outlook: Highlights • Halifax’s economy grew by 3.6 per cent last year, riding the wave of a national post-recession surge. • A slowdown in the global recovery late last year and expectations of a weaker housing market in the coming months will lower economic growth to 2.9 per this year. • The manufacturing sector will continue to grow at a healthy pace in 2011 thanks to several projects at the Halifax Shipyard. Employment Growth Halifax (2003–12) Sources: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Unemployment Rate Halifax (2003–12) Source: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. Disposable Income Growth Halifax (2003–12) Sources: Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Retail Sales Growth Halifax (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. Construction Output Growth Halifax (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. Manufacturing Output Growth Halifax (2003-12) Source: Conference Board of Canada. New Housing Price Index Canada and the Atlantic Provinces (1994-2011) (2007 = 100) Source: Statistics Canada. Average Resale Prices Canada and the Atlantic Provinces (1994-2011) Source: Canadian Real Estate Association. Atlantic CMAs vs. East (Real GDP Growth, 2006-10) Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Atlantic CMAs vs. the West (Real GDP Growth, 2006-10) Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Atlantic CMAs vs. the East (Real GDP Growth, 2011) Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Atlantic CMAs vs. the West (Real GDP Growth, 2011) Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Atlantic CMAs vs. the East (Real GDP Growth, 2012) Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Atlantic CMAs vs. the West (Real GDP Growth, 2012) Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Atlantic Provinces Outlook: 2011-12 Highlights • Newfoundland and Labrador leads the Atlantic region. • A host of major construction projects will stimulate Newfoundland and Labrador in the near term. • Slowdown in private non-residential investment will dampen the outlook in New Brunswick in 2011–12. • Moderate economic outlook expected for PEI and Nova Scotia. www.conferenceboard.ca 2006-10 Average Real GDP Growth (per cent, basic prices, 2002 $) Canada Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 2011 Real GDP Growth (per cent, basic prices, 2002 $) Canada Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 2012 Real GDP Growth (per cent, basic prices, 2002 $) Canada Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Demographic Challenge (average annual population growth 2000–2010) Source: Statistics Canada. The Conference Board of Canada.