COMPETITIVE AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH PROGRAMME Integrated Appraisal of Spatial economic and Network effects of transport investments and policies Deliverable 6: Modelling the Socio-economic and Spatial Impacts of EU Transport Policy Version 1 12th January 2004 Authors: Bröcker, J., Meyer, R., Schneekloth, N., Schürmann, C., Spiekermann, K., Wegener, M. Contract: GRD1/2000/25351 S12.316053 Project Coordinator: TNO Inro, Delft, Netherlands. Funded by the European Commission 5th Framework – Transport RTD IASON Partner Organisations TNO Inro (Nl), CAU Kiel (D), FUA (Nl), IRPUD (D), ITS/UNIVLEEDS (UK), ME&P (UK), NEA (Nl), NETR (Fr), RUG (Nl), UNIKARL (D), TRANSMAN (Hu), VTT (Fi). 3 IASON GRD1/2000/25351 S12.316053 Integrated Appraisal of Spatial economic and Network effects of transport investments and policies Deliverable 6: Modelling the Socio-economic and Spatial Impacts of EU Transport Policy This document should be referenced as: Bröcker, J., Meyer, R.., Schneekloth, N., Schürmann, C., Spiekermann, K., Wegener, M. (2004): Modelling the Socio-economic and Spatial Impacts of EU Transport Policy. IASON (Integrated Appraisal of Spatial economic and Network effects of transport investments and policies) Deliverable 6. Funded by 5th Framework RTD Programme. Kiel/Dortmund: Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel/Institut für Raumplanung, Universität Dortmund. 12 January 2004 Version No: 1.0 Authors: as above PROJECT INFORMATION Contract no: GRD1/2000/25351 SI2.316053: Integrated Appraisal of Spatial economic and Network effects of transport investments and policies Website: http://www.wt.tno.nl/iason/ Commissioned by: European Commission – DG TREN; Fifth Framework Programme Lead Partner: TNO Inro, Delft (Nl) Partners: TNO Inro (Nl), CAU Kiel (D), FUA (Nl), IRPUD (D), ITS/UNIVLEEDS (UK), ME&P (UK), NEA (Nl), NETR (Fr), RUG (Nl), UNIKARL (D), TRANSMAN (Hu), VTT (Fi). DOCUMENT CONTROL INFORMATION Status: 1st Submission to DG TREN Distribution: IASON Partners, European Commission Availability: Public (only once status above is “Accepted”) Filename: Quality assurance: Coordinator's review: Signed: Date: 4 Contents Page Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 41 2 Scenarios................................................................................................................................43 2.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................43 2.2 Overview of Scenarios................................................................................................... 43 2.3 Scenario Specification. .................................................................................................. 45 2.3.1 The Reference Scenario..................................................................................... 45 2.3.2 Network Scenarios. ............................................................................................ 45 2.3.3 Pricing Scenarios................................................................................................ 52 2.3.4 Combination Scenario........................................................................................ 54 2.3.5 Rail Freight Scenario ......................................................................................... 54 2.3.6 TIPMAC Scenarios............................................................................................ 54 3. The Extended SASI Model................................................................................................ 56 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 56 3.2 Model Design ............................................................................................................... 58 3.2.1 Submodels........................................................................................................... 59 3.2.2 Model Output...................................................................................................... 67 3.3 The Common Spatial Database ................................................................................... 68 3.3.1 Calibration/Validation Data ............................................................................... 69 3.3.2 Simulation Data .................................................................................................. 69 3.4 Model Calibration ........................................................................................................ 70 3.5 SASI Results.................................................................................................................74 3.5.1 Accessibility........................................................................................................ 75 3.5.2 GDP per Capita................................................................................................... 85 3.5.3 Cohesion.............................................................................................................. 92 3.6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................99 4 The CGEurope Model ....................................................................................................... 103 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 103 4.2 CGEurope I .......................................................................................................... 105 4.2.1 Model Design.............................................................................................. 105 4.2.2 Measuring Transaction Cost....................................................................... 107 4.2.3 Calibration for Benchmark ......................................................................... 108 4.2.4 Calibration for 2020.................................................................................... 111 4.3 CGEurope II ......................................................................................................... 112 4.3.1 Basic features of CGEurope II ................................................................... 112 4.3.2 The Equations of the Equilibrium .............................................................. 113 4.3.3 Calibration .................................................................................................. 118 4.4 The Database of CGEurope.................................................................................. 121 4.4.1 National Accounts....................................................................................... 121 4.4.2 Regional Data.............................................................................................. 122 4.4.3 International Trade ...................................................................................... 123 4.5 Spatial Inequality and Global Benefits of Transport Initiatives ........................... 124 5 4.6 CGEurope I Simulation Results............................................................................ 127 4.6.1 Results for the 1997 Calibration............................................................... 129 4.6.2 Maps for 1997 Simulation Results. ........................................................... 133 4.6.3 Results for the 2020 Calibration................................................................ 141 4.6.4 Spatial Distribution and Welfare. .............................................................. 141 4.6.5 Maps for the 2020 Simulation Results. ..................................................... 144 4.7 CGEurope II Simulation Results............................................................................. 147 4.7.1 Comparison with CGEurope I. ................................................................. 147 4.7.2 Indirect Effects.......................................................................................... 153 4.7.3 Maps for CGEurope II Simulation Results................................................ 158 4.8 Conclusions from CGEurope Simulations.............................................................. 165 5 SASI and CGEurope: a Comparison ......................................................................... 168 5.1 Comparison of Numerical Results .......................................................................... 168 5.2 Why are Spatial Patterns Similar ?.......................................................................... 169 5.3 Why are Ranges of Effects Different ? ................................................................... 172 5.4 Political Implications .............................................................................................. 173 5.5 Short-Term Versus Long-Term .............................................................................. 175 6 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 176 References . .......................................................................................................................... 182 Appendices ........................................................................................................................... 187