Bulletin of Geography. Socio–economic Series / No. 34 (2016): 17–31 BULLETIN OF GEOGRAPHY. SOCIO–ECONOMIC SERIES DE journal homepages: http://www.bulletinofgeography.umk.pl/ http://wydawnictwoumk.pl/czasopisma/index.php/BGSS/index http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bog ISSN 1732–4254 quarterly G Large cities in Poland in face of demographic changes Elżbieta Gołata1, CDFMR, Ireneusz Kuropka2, CDFMR 1Poznan University of Economics and Business, Faculty of Informatics and Electronic Economy, Department of Statistics, al. Nie- podleglosci 10, 61–875 Poznan, Poland, phone +48 618543941, e-mail: [email protected]; 2Wroclaw University of Eco- nomics, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Department of Economic Forecasts and Analyses, Komandorska 118/120, 53–345 Wroclaw, Poland, phone +48 713 680 362, e-mail: [email protected] (corresponding author) How to cite: Gołata, E. and Kuropka, I., 2016: Large cities in Poland in face of demographic changes. In: Szymańska, D. and Biegańska, J. ed- itors, Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, No. 34, Toruń: Nicolaus Copernicus University, pp. 17–31. DOI: http://dx.doi. org/10.1515/bog-2016-0032 Abstract. The growth of rural population, to the detriment of cities in Poland Article details: is caused mainly by agglomeration processes, including suburbanisation. Conse- Received: 21 September 2015 quently, intense and sudden changes in demographic structure of large cities and Revised: 26 January 2016 surrounding regions are observed. The paper presents demographic changes in Accepted: 02 June 2016 the largest Polish cities. The aim of the study was to verify whether the phenom- enon of population aging was more distinct in large cities than in surrounding municipalities. We also aimed to answer the question of how changes in demo- graphic processes should shape the social policy pursued by authorities in large Key words: cities. Discussion covers activities rising out of demographic challenges to meet large cities, the needs in the field of “services” for children and increasing demand for ven- demographic changes, tures related to care for the elderly. The analysis includes selected areas of the ed- suburbanization, ucation, health care and social assistance fields. social change. © 2016 Nicolaus Copernicus University. All rights reserved. Contents: 1. Introduction . 18 2. Research problem, hypothesis and methods ............................................... 18 3. Results and discussion .................................................................. 22 3.1. Population ageing .................................................................. 22 3.1.1. Population ageing: fertility..................................................... 24 3.1.2. Population ageing: life expectancy .............................................. 25 3.2. Social change ...................................................................... 26 3.2.1. Social change: education ...................................................... 26 3.2.2. Health and social care ........................................................ 28 4. Conclusions: city development strategy ................................................... 29 References ............................................................................... 30 © 2016 Nicolaus Copernicus University. All rights reserved. © 2016 De Gruyter Open (on-line). 18 Elżbieta Gołata, Ireneusz Kuropka / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 34 (2016): 17–31 1. Introduction and Poznań. Additionally, in accordance with the purpose of the study, the suburban areas surround- ing each city were also taken into account. Each of In the twentieth century the number of inhabitants the metropolitan areas is analysed in terms of the of the largest Polish cities increased several times. division into a core city and fringe areas. The study Difficult experiences during the war significantly dis- is conducted using data from last population cen- rupted this trend. However, the intensive process of suses: 2002 and 2011. Information from censuses post-war urbanisation and industrialization favoured has been updated with the most recent data. There- further development of cities. The process of urbani- fore, the study used different sources of informa- sation historically has been associated with other im- tion, including vital statistics, Central Statistical portant economic and social transformations, which Office databases, population censuses and data from have brought greater geographic mobility and de- administrative records, particularly as refers to edu- mographic changes. Poland is a country with one cation (e.g., secondary school exam results). of the lowest total fertility rates in Europe, one of The structure of the paper reflects stages of our the largest increases in life expectancy, extremely in- research undertaken in order to reach the research tense population aging and a very large emigration goal. The paper consists of three parts. The first one abroad. The intensity of these demographic chang- describes the problem, results of previous studies, for- es means that their consequences are considered a mulates the thesis and discusses methods used in the major challenge for social policy of local authorities study. Some basic information about the population (Jonda, 2008; Rocak, 2012). The effects of migration, of the largest Polish cities is analysed. This includes fertility decline and population aging are particular- a brief history of the city’s development, current sit- ly evident in large cities and their nearest surround- uation and future trends based on population pro- ings. These processes are characterized by a unique jections. On this background we continue with some intensity in Central and Eastern Europe, including methodological issues referring to classic cyclical ur- Poland (Gołata, Jonda, 2008; Frątczak, 2011). banisation model (van den Berg et al., 1982). The aim of the study was to give statistical ev- The main part of the analysis contains results ob- idence of past and future population trends in the tained and their discussion. It is divided into three largest cities in Poland, in association with change parts: the first part shows changes in demographic in demographic processes. Our purpose was also to processes and their consequences. Then, population show the interlinked development of core cities and ageing from the bottom and from the top of the age fringe areas as regards ageing and social needs. The pyramid is presented. Social issues are the subject aim of the study was also to verify whether the phe- of the last part. It covers information on education, nomenon of population aging was more distinct in and on the changes in the population structure as large cities than in surrounding municipalities. reflected by the level of education and social assis- The paper presents demographic changes in the tance for the elderly. largest Polish cities and points out important issues Considerations end with summaries and conclu- rising from these changes, which might be helpful sions of the analysis. An attempt was also made to for local authorities to prevent unfavourable demo- compare the results obtained to goals set out in ur- graphic trends. Our intention was also to answer ban development strategies. the question of how changes in demographic pro- cesses should shape the social policy pursued by au- thorities in large cities. Discussion covers activities 2. Research problem, hypothesis rising out of demographic challenges to meet the and methods needs in the field of “services” for children and in- creasing demand for ventures related to care for the elderly. The analysis includes education, health care For over fifty years, until 2000, Poland observed and social assistance fields. an intensive process of urbanisation and associ- The spatial scope of the study includes five larg- ated outflow of population from the countryside. est Polish cities: Warsaw, Łódź, Kraków, Wrocław This situation being the result of socialist econo- Elżbieta Gołata, Ireneusz Kuropka / Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series / 34 (2016): 17–31 19 my performed in all the countries of Central and sudden changes in demographic structures of resi- Eastern Europe, in contrast to the developed coun- dents in large cities and surrounding regions. Apart tries. In the transition period changes in political from births and deaths, the impact of direct and in- and economic situation caused significant chang- direct migration on population structure is revealed. es in current trends. Polish cities began to shrink. Since 1900, the number of Wrocław residents in- We watched changes that earlier have occurred in creased by half, while an increase by two and a half some cities of developed countries (Hausserman, was observed for Łódź and Warsaw; in Poznań Siebel, 1988; Friedrichs, 1993; Węcławowicz, 2003, population grew almost five times, and in Kraków 2014; Turok, Mykhnenko, 2007; Jaroszewska, Stry- over eight times. However, the last 20 years or so jakiewicz, 2014). have seen a decline in the population of both Łódź According to 2011 Population Census, over 60% and Poznań. In 1989, the population of Łódź was of Polish people are urban residents, although this 851,690 and in 2014 it was only 706,004, which percentage has declined between the last censuses. means it dropped by more than 145,000 (17.1%, see This increase in rural population to the detriment Fig. 1). Similarly, but to a lower extent, Poznań pop- of cities is caused not only by territorial differenti-