The impact of European demographic trends on regional and urban development Synthesis report Issued within the framework of the Hungarian Presidency of the Council of the European Union Budapest, April 2011 This publication was prepared upon the commission and with the support of the Ministry of Interior, Hungary Deputy State Secretary: Dr. Péter Szaló Head of Department: Dr. Géza Tompai Chief coordinator: Dr. Andrea Iván Prepared by Metropolitan Research Institute Éva Gerőházi József Hegedüs Hanna Szemző Iván Tosics VÁTI Hungarian Non‐profit Ltd. for Regional Development and Town Planning (VÁTI) Kyra Tomay László Gere The authors would like to express special thanks to Iiris Alexe, Dirk Gebhardt, Eric van Marissing, Rainer Münz, Alina Potrykowska and Thorsten Wiechmann who supported the preparation of this study by participating in a workshop of experts on 15‐16 November 2010 in Budapest. The authors are also grateful to those municipalities, ministries and other organizations (from Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, United Kingdom) and to European organisations that provided background studies and thematic reflections. The impact of European demographic trends on regional and urban development TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON EU LEVEL: THE CHALLENGE ............................................................................... 9 1.2 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL: PROBLEMS AND POLICIES .................................................. 10 1.2.1 General European tendencies ................................................................................................... 10 1.2.2 Territorial differences across the EU countries ......................................................................... 11 1.3 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON THE LOCAL LEVEL AND THE POSSIBLE STRATEGIES ................................................. 13 1.4 EU POLICY IMPLICATIONS: HOW TO INFLUENCE THE DEMOGRAPHIC FUTURE OF THE EU? .................................. 16 1.4.1 Opportunities and limits for EU interventions ........................................................................... 16 1.4.2 The connection between the EU 2020 strategy and the demographic challenges ................... 18 2 THE DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE OF EUROPE: PROJECTIONS AND ANALYSIS ...................................21 2.1 NATURAL POPULATION CHANGE ............................................................................................................ 22 2.2 MIGRATION WITHIN AND INTO THE EU ................................................................................................... 26 2.3 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS......................................... 29 2.3.1 Southern Europe and German‐speaking countries ................................................................... 30 2.3.2 Eastern and Central Europe ...................................................................................................... 31 2.3.3 Northern and Western Europe .................................................................................................. 33 3 THE ROOTS AND IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE .........................................................36 3.1 IMPORTANT THEORIES REGARDING CHANGES IN VITAL STATISTICS ................................................................. 36 3.1.1 The demographic transition model ........................................................................................... 36 3.1.2 The second demographic transition .......................................................................................... 37 3.1.3 Predictability of future fertility trends – is the growth of fertility levels to be expected? ......... 39 3.1.4 The contribution of migrant fertility to the overall fertility rate of the destination country ..... 41 3.2 THEORIES REGARDING THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION........................................................ 42 3.2.1 Types and forms of migration ................................................................................................... 42 3.2.2 Explaining migration: economic and sociological approaches.................................................. 45 3.2.3 Concepts of integration of ethnic minorities in new multicultural cities ................................... 47 4 THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND THE MAIN POLICY REACTIONS ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL .....................................................................................................50 4.1 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION ............................................................................ 50 4.1.1 Economic aspects: cost and benefit of migration ..................................................................... 50 4.1.2 Social issues: integration ........................................................................................................... 52 4.1.3 Handling the process of illegal immigration ............................................................................. 54 4.1.4 Approaches of national migration policies ............................................................................... 54 4.2 REFORMING THE WELFARE STATE ........................................................................................................... 56 4.2.1 Reforming the pension system within the EU27 ....................................................................... 56 4.2.2 New trends in elderly care in the EU 27 countries .................................................................... 58 4.2.3 Policies aiming to increase fertility level ................................................................................... 60 4.3 LABOUR MARKET POLICIES .................................................................................................................... 61 4.4 DEMOGRAPHY AND COHESION: THE THREAT OF A DIVIDED EUROPEAN UNION ................................................ 64 4.4.1 Factors influencing trends in convergence and divergence in EU ............................................. 64 4.4.2 Convergence at the national level, divergence at the sub‐national level ................................. 65 4.4.3 Will the asymmetric demographic pressure halt the trends of convergence? .......................... 67 1 | The impact of European demographic trends on regional and urban development 5 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE REGIONS AND CITIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ........................ 69 5.1 TRENDS IN POPULATION DYNAMICS IN EUROPEAN REGIONS ......................................................................... 69 5.1.1 Migratory trends ....................................................................................................................... 69 5.1.2 Ageing and increasing life expectancy ...................................................................................... 70 5.1.3 Projections for the future; demographic vulnerability .............................................................. 71 5.2 POPULATION DYNAMICS IN EUROPEAN URBAN AREAS ................................................................................ 74 5.2.1 Population dynamics ................................................................................................................. 75 5.2.2 Natural population change ....................................................................................................... 80 5.2.3 Migratory trends ....................................................................................................................... 83 5.2.4 Typology of urban demographic trends based on Urban Audit data ........................................ 90 6 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND URBAN POLICIES ............................................................................. 95 6.1 THE INFLUENCE OF URBAN POLICIES ON POPULATION SHRINKAGE ................................................................. 95 6.1.1 The consequences of shrinkage ................................................................................................. 95 6.1.2 Urban policies for mitigation ..................................................................................................... 96 6.1.3 Urban policies for adaptation .................................................................................................... 97 6.2 URBAN POLICY IN AGEING URBAN AREAS .................................................................................................. 99 6.2.1 Consequences of ageing ............................................................................................................ 99 6.2.2 Urban policies for mitigation: family responsible cities ........................................................... 101 6.2.3 Urban policies for adaptation to ageing ................................................................................. 102 6.3 ECONOMIC MIGRATION AND URBAN POLICIES ......................................................................................... 105 6.3.1 Effects of migration on destination (receiving) cities .............................................................. 105 6.3.2 Effects of migration on the issuing cities ................................................................................. 107 6.3.3 Urban