Public Disclosure Authorized STRIKING A BALANCE MANAGING EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA IN VIETNAM’S AGRICULTURE Public Disclosure Authorized William R. Sutton, Jitendra P. Srivastava, Mark Rosegrant, James Thurlow, and Leocardio Sebastian Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized 9960_CVR Vietnam.indd 3 12/21/18 8:19 AM Striking a Balance Managing El Niño and La Niña in Vietnam’s Agriculture William R. Sutton, Jitendra P. Srivastava, Mark Rosegrant, James Thurlow, and Leocardio Sebastain 9960_Vietnam_NEW.indd 1 3/1/19 2:55 PM © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@ worldbank.org. Cover photo: © Tran Thi Hoa/World Bank. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Shepherd, Inc. Photo credits: All photos used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. page xxii, 26, 38, 72, © Markus Kostner/World Bank. 9960_Vietnam_NEW.indd 2 3/1/19 2:55 PM Contents Abbreviations .............................................. vii Foreword .................................................. ix Acknowledgments .......................................... xi Overview ................................................. xiii 1. Introduction .............................................. 1 Roadmap................................................ 3 2. ENSO Affects Vietnam ...................................... 5 3. ENSO Affects the Agricultural Sector ......................... 13 Crops .................................................. 14 Livestock ............................................... 17 Fisheries................................................ 19 4. El Niño Contributes to Economic Impacts ...................... 21 5. El Niño Contributes to Social Impacts ......................... 27 6. Vietnam Has Taken Many Actions to Support ENSO Preparedness ............................................. 31 Domestic actions......................................... 31 Vietnam’s government made efforts to prepare for the 2015–2016 ENSO .................................. 32 International support..................................... 35 7. Despite These Actions, There Are Still Areas to Improve ......... 39 8. Policy Interventions Do Not Neutralize ENSO-Related Losses...... 43 9. The Government Can Take Additional Actions to Improve ENSO Preparedness in Vietnam .............................. 49 Preparedness............................................ 49 Resilience .............................................. 57 Annexes................................................... 65 Annex 1: Methodological specifics .......................... 65 Annex 2: Rice production under various scenarios.............. 69 iii 9960_Vietnam_NEW.indd 3 3/1/19 2:55 PM iv Striking a Balance: Managing El Niño and La Niña in Vietnam’s Agriculture Annex 3: Statistically estimated deviations in average annual rice production during ENSO years, 1995–2015.......... 71 References ................................................. 73 Figures Figure A: Differences of Rainfall between ENSO and Neutral Phases in Subregions, October to June, 1980–2015.......................xiv Figure 1: Integrated Analytical Framework. ....................... 4 Figure 2: Monthly Average of Rainfall Amount in ENSO Phases During 1980–2015. ........................................... 6 Figure 3: Differences of Rainfall between El Niño and Neutral Phase in 1980–2015 in Subregions between October and June. ............ 8 Figure 4: Differences of Average Rainfall in El Niño from Neutral in the Northern Regions During Strong Events in Recent Years. ....... 9 Figure 5: Winter–Spring Rice Yields (tons/hectare), 1995–2016. ....... 9 Figure 6: Growth and Variability of Agricultural GDP in Vietnam. .... 13 Figure 7: Crop Model Estimated Deviations in Rice, Maize, and Tomato Yields During “Moderate” and “Strong” El Niño and La Niña Years............................................ 15 Figure 8: Vietnam Rice Yield (kg/ha), 1961–2016 Reported by FAOSTAT................................................. 16 Figure 9: GDP Losses During Strong El Niño Events (US$ billions and percentage reductions). .................................. 23 Figure 10: GDP Gains During Strong La Niña Events (US$ billions or percentage increases). ..................................... 24 Figure 11: Real Food and Agricultural Price Changes During ENSO Events (percentage). ......................................... 25 Figure 12: Organizational Structure for Natural Disaster Prevention. ...33 Figure 13: Response and Recovery Timeline....................... 34 Figure 14: Household Consumption Losses During Strong El Niño Events and Intervention Scenarios. ............................. 45 Figure 15: Household Consumption Losses by Expenditure Quintile and with/without All Interventions Combined (Q1 is the poorest quintile, Q5 is the wealthiest). ................................. 46 Figure 16: Changes in National Poverty Headcount Rate and Number of Poor People During Strong El Niño Events and Intervention Scenarios (percentage points and 1,000s of people). ............... 47 9960_Vietnam_NEW.indd 4 3/1/19 2:55 PM Contents v Figure 17: Change in Poverty Headcount Rates During Strong El Niño Events and Intervention Scenarios by Location and Gender of the Household Head (percentage points). ..................... 48 Annex Figure 2a: Winter–Spring Rice Production (1,000 tons) in South Central Coast, 1995–2016. ............................. 69 Annex Figure 2b: Winter–Spring Rice Yields (tons/hectare) in South Central Coast, 1995–2016. ............................. 70 Annex Figure 2c: Winter–Spring Rice Production (1,000 tons) and Area (1,000 hectares) in Central Highlands, 1995–2016.......... 70 Annex Figure 2d: Winter–Spring Rice Yields (ton/hectare) in Central Highlands, 1995–2016................................ 70 Annex Figure 2e: Winter–Spring Rice Production (1,000 tons) and Area (1,000 hectares) in Mekong River Delta, 1995–2016. ....... 71 Annex Figure 2f: Winter–Spring Rice Yields (tons/hectare) in Mekong River Delta, 1995–2016. ............................. 71 Tables Table A: Summary of Recommendations and Proposed Actions.......xix Table 1: Severe Droughts in Vietnam since the 1997–98 El Niño. ...... 7 Table 2: National Economic Structure, 2015....................... 21 Table 3: Agriculture Food System GDP and Employment, 2015. ...... 22 Table 4: GDP Changes During ENSO Events of Different Magnitudes. 24 Table 5: Household Income and Consumption, 2015................ 27 Table 6: GDP