www.opinium.co.uk [email protected] @opiniumresearch The Political Report 14th February 2020 From the Opinium/Observer polling series Fieldwork14 th February 2020 12 to 14 February 2020 Opinium Research is registered in England and Wales. Limited Liability Partnership number OC331181. Our registered office is 58 Great Sutton Street, London, EC1M 4AY, where our list of members is available for inspection. OPINIUM RESEARCH 58 Great Sutton St London, EC1V 0DG T +44 (0)20 7556 3190 [email protected] One-minute takeaway • The Conservative lead drops from 17 points to 15 points over the last month • This is the result of Labour increasing two points to 32% • 43% think Scotland should be allowed to hold another independence referendum, while 57% oppose this • Almost half (47%) of the public think Scotland will be independent in the 50 years; only a third (34%) think Northern Ireland will join the Republic of Ireland in the same timeframe • Public are more likely to oppose the idea of Scotland leaving the UK, and more likely to be neutral towards the idea of Northern Ireland leaving • Long Bailey is perceived as the Corbyn continuity candidate, while Nandy and Starmer are seen to be more similar to the politics of Brown and Blair Voting intention since the 2017 general election 50% 47% 45% 40% 35% 30% 32% 25% 20% 15% 10% 7% 5% 2% 0% Con Lab LD Brexit Party Other Fieldwork 12 to 14 February 2020 | The Political Report | 14th February 2020 | 1 OPINIUM RESEARCH 58 Great Sutton St London, EC1V 0DG T +44 (0)20 7556 3190 [email protected] The state of the parties A honeymoon period for the Conservatives The Conservatives lead reduced from 17 points to 15 points over the last month. 47 % 32 % 7 % 6 % 4 % 2 % 1 % 1 % Con Lab Lib Dem SNP Green Brexit Plaid Other Party Cymru Latest polling 15th Jan 2020 This is the result of Labour increasing two points from 30% last month to 32% this month. Meanwhile, the Lib Dem vote share continues to fall, from 9% last month to its current 7%. The Conservatives remain on 47% of the vote share. The future of the United Kingdom Nicola Sturgeon has called for a second Scottish independence referendum later this year in a vote at Holyrood. One of the arguments for those calling for a second referendum is that the circumstances have fundamentally changed since 2014 where one of the main arguments was that Scotland would have to leave the European Union if it became independent. Others argue that Scotland has now been ‘dragged out of the EU against its will’ given that voters in Scotland voted remain. Opponents to a second referendum argue that the 2014 vote was ‘one in a generation’ and settled the issue’ and that holding another one opens the door to a “neverendum” where the question gets repeated until Scotland eventually vote for independence. Support for another independence referendum is fairly high amongst the UK public. While the majority (57%) think that Scotland should not hold another independence referendum, a sizable proportion think it should (43%). However, asked in a separate way, only 39% of the public think another referendum should not be held under any circumstance. 44% believe that if polls show a consistent majority in favour of independence then the UK government should allow another referendum on Scottish independence, Fieldwork 12 to 14 February 2020 | The Political Report | 14th February 2020 | 2 OPINIUM RESEARCH 58 Great Sutton St London, EC1V 0DG T +44 (0)20 7556 3190 [email protected] while 23% think pro-independence parties winning a majority in Scottish elections would be necessary. Likelihood of future independence Overall, there does appear to be a sentiment that Scotland is likely to become independent in the future. A third (35%) think it will be independent within the next 10 years, but this rises to almost half (47%) of the public thinking about the next 50 years. A further third (34%) think it might or might not. In comparison, the public are more sceptical of Northern Ireland leaving the UK and re-joining the Republic of Ireland. Only 19% think this will happen in the next 10 years, increasing to a third (34%) thinking this withing the next 50 years % who think it is likely this country will leave the United Kingdom Within the next 10 years Within the next 20 years Within the next 50 years 47 % 42 % 35 % 34 % 27 % 19 % Scotland Northern Ireland Support for independence When it comes to support for independence of these two countries, the public outside of Scotland are more likely to oppose the idea of Scotland leaving the UK, than those living outside of Northern Ireland opposing the prospect of Northern Ireland leaving the UK. In Northern Ireland’s case, a sizable proportion of those living outside of Northern Ireland are neutral on the prospect of it joining the Republic of Ireland. Fieldwork 12 to 14 February 2020 | The Political Report | 14th February 2020 | 3 OPINIUM RESEARCH 58 Great Sutton St London, EC1V 0DG T +44 (0)20 7556 3190 [email protected] Views on the prospect of Northern Ireland and Scotland leaving the UK Oppose Neutral Support Northern Ireland 35 % 45 % 20 % Scotland 45 % 36 % 19 % Labour Leadership Keir, there, and everywhere Keir Starmer continues to lead the pack in the Labour Leadership race. When it comes to holding the Tories to account Starmer is the candidate that most believe is up to the job (20%). Just under a quarter (24%) say he would be most likely to win a general election. However, it’s worth repeating it is still very early days. Perhaps the most interesting figure here is the 45% or so who say they don’t know who would be best at holding the Conservative government to account. Getting the attention of voters over the next few months will be crucial. Perceptions of the politics of the candidates We asked the public to place different politicians on a 0-10 scale, with 0 being very left wing and 10 very right wing. Long-Bailey is perceived by the public to be the Corbyn continuity candidate with 43% perceiving her to be left wing. On the other hand, Nandy and Starmer sit closer to perceptions of Brown and Blair, being more likely to be perceived as centrist (33% and 36% respectively) Fieldwork 12 to 14 February 2020 | The Political Report | 14th February 2020 | 4 OPINIUM RESEARCH 58 Great Sutton St London, EC1V 0DG T +44 (0)20 7556 3190 [email protected] Perceptions of the politics of candidates and past Labour leaders Left wing Centrist Right wing 55 % 43 % 41 % 39 % 36 % 33 % 28 % 28 % 24 % 24 % 19 % 19 % 17 % 13 % 12 % 11 % 7 % 7 % 8 % 8 % 5 % Jeremy Rebecca Emily Lisa Nandy Keir Starmer Gordon Brown Tony Blair Corbyn Long-Bailey Thornberry Polling commentary Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, commented: “Scotland’s place in the union has much more of an emotional hold on British voters than Northern Ireland’s. Despite the terms of the Brexit deal making a united Ireland significantly more feasible and the process of Scottish independence potentially significantly more difficult, more voters believe Scotland will have left the UK within the next 50 years than believe the same about Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, as all available evidence suggests that Keir Starmer has a commanding lead in the Labour leadership race, public perceptions of each candidate’s position on the left-right spectrum suggest the public see Starmer and Lisa Nandy as closer to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown while Rebecca Long- Bailey’s position as the continuity Corbyn candidate appears to be the main thing that has cut through about her.” Fieldwork 12 to 14 February 2020 | The Political Report | 14th February 2020 | 5 OPINIUM RESEARCH 58 Great Sutton St London, EC1V 0DG T +44 (0)20 7556 3190 [email protected] A view on the Leaders About Opinium About Opinium OPINIUM is an award winning strategic insight agency built on the belief that in a world of uncertainty and complexity, success depends on the ability to stay on pulse of what people think, feel andOPINIUM do. Creative is an awardand inquisitive, winning strategic we are p insightassionate agency about built empowering on the belief our that clients in a to world make of the uncertainty decisionsand complexity, that matter. success We workdepends with onorganisations the ability toto staydefine on and pulse overcome of what strategic people thinkchallenges, feel and– do. helpingCreative them and toinquisitive, get to grips we with are thepassionate world in whichabout theirempowering brands operate. our clients We touse make the rightthe decisions approach that andmatter. meth Weodology work withto deliver organisations robust insights, to define strategic and overcome counsel strategicand targeted challenges recommendations – helping them that to get generateto grips with change the worldand positive in which outcomes. their brands operate. We use the right approach and methodology to deliver robust insights, strategic counsel and targeted recommendations that generate change and positive outcomes. | [email protected] | 0207 566 3190 www.opinium.co.uk | [email protected] | 0207 566 3190 Fieldwork 12 to 14 February 2020 | The Political Report | 14th February 2020 | 6 .