Leapfrogging towards sustainable mobility: Enablers of socio-technical transition towards Sustainable Urban Mobility System in developing country cities: The case of Bangalore and Jakarta Anteneh Getnet Dagnachew Leapfrogging towards sustainable mobility: Enablers of socio-technical transition towards Sustainable Urban Mobility System in developing country cities : The case of Bangalore and Jakarta July 2013 Anteneh Getnet Dagnachew Student Number: 3858448 Email: [email protected] ([email protected] ) Postal address: Augusta de Witstraat 9 3069 WR, Rotterdam The Netherlands Sustainable Development: Energy and Resources track 45 ECTS to be obtained Supervisors: (1) Dr. ir. Wina Graus (Utrecht University) (2) Dr. ir. Niki Frantzeskaki (DRIFT) Acknowledgement I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisors Dr. Eng. Wina Graus and Dr. Niki Frantzeskaki for their guidance, enthusiastic encouragement and useful critiques of this research work. Furthermore, I would like to thank Somesh Sharma, Marijk Huysman, Heri Sagiman, Yr Rahayu, manjunath sadashiva, Charmae Pyl Nercua, and Himadri Das for assisting with establishing contacts for the online survey. I would also like to thank Saskia Ruijsink & Ethan AG Ruijsink for the love and support throughout my study. My gratitude extends to people who participated in the testing of the survey questionnaire and also for those who took time to fill the survey. I would like to thank my loved ones, who have supported me throughout entire process, both by keeping me harmonious and helping me putting pieces together. Contents 1. Introduction and Research Methodology 1.1 Background of the research 1.2 Problem definition 1.3 Research methodology 2. Literature Review, Theories and Concepts 2.1 Automobile ownership and use: Impacts and determinants 2.2 Multi Level Perspective (MLP): Socio-technical transition in the mobility sector 2.3 Summary 3. Research scope 3.1 Selection criteria 3.2 Variables of interest 3.3 Hypothesis 4. Empirical Study 4.1 Bangalore, India 4.2 Jakarta Indonesia 5. Synthesis and Conclusion 5.1 Synthesis 5.2 Limitation of the study 5.3 Conclusion 5.4 Recommendation for future research 6. Reference 7. Annex: Survey results List of Tables Table 1: Online survey questionnaire respondents profile ......................................................................................................... 8 Table 2: Segment profiles ......................................................................................................................................................... 14 Table 3: Transit service quality attributes ................................................................................................................................ 17 Table 4: Sociological characteristics of niche, regime and landscape level .............................................................................. 21 Table 5: MLP and the mobility sector ...................................................................................................................................... 24 Table 6: Evaluation of selected group of countries for the study ............................................................................................ 25 Table 7: The Global City Competitiveness Index 2012 Indonesian Cities .................................................................................. 27 Table 8: Evaluation of selected Indian cities ............................................................................................................................ 27 Table 9: Result of the Indian cities comparison ...................................................................................................................... 28 Table 10: The Global City Competitiveness Index 2012 Indonesian Cities ............................................................................... 29 Table 11: Evaluation of selected Indonesian cities ................................................................................................................... 29 Table 12: Result of the comparison of the Indonesian cities ................................................................................................... 30 Table 13: Variables of interest and indicators .......................................................................................................................... 33 Table 14: Annual growth of GDP of the state of Karnataka by sector (1994-2004) .................................................................. 37 Table 15: Growth of the bus fleet in Bangalore ........................................................................................................................ 38 Table 16: Expansion of Bangalore city land area ....................................................................................................................... 41 Table 17: Organizations involved in Land use planning and transport in Bangalore ............................................................... 42 Table 18: Agencies involved in urban development in Jakarta ................................................................................................. 53 Table 19: Annual motorization, income, land area and population in Bangalore and Jakarta- 2001-2011 .............................. 58 Table of Figures Figure 1: Objective of the research ............................................................................................................................................. 2 Figure 2: World Urban & Rural Population 2011 & 2050 ............................................................................................................. 3 Figure 3: Income per capita and Urbanization, 2011 .................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 4: Conceptual framework of the research ....................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 5: Vicious Circle of Car-Oriented Transport Development ............................................................................................... 7 Figure 6: Elements from the socio-technical configuration in personal transportation .......................................................... 10 Figure 7: Vehicle Ownership and Per Capita Income for USA, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, with an Illustrative Gompertz Function, 1960-2002 .................................................................................................................................................11 Figure 8: Vehicle Ownership and Per Capita Income for South Korea, Brazil, China, and India, with the Same Illustrative Gompertz Function, 1960-2002 .................................................................................................................................................11 Figure 9: Four phases of transition ........................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 10: Multi Level perspective (MLP) Framework .............................................................................................................. 20 Figure 11: Factors in the vicious circle of the car regime .......................................................................................................... 22 Figure 12: Analytical framework of the research ...................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 13: Evaluation of selected Indian cities (in log scale) .................................................................................................... 28 Figure 14: Evaluation of selected Indonesian cities (in log scale) ............................................................................................ 30 Figure 15: India administrative division 2011 ........................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 16: Karnataka emission by sector- 2009-10 .................................................................................................................. 35 Figure 17: Population growth of Bangalore City during 1871 – 2011 .......................................................................................... 36 Figure 18: Sector share of GDP in Bangalore ............................................................................................................................ 36 Figure 19: Vehicle population in Bangalore (1980-2012) ........................................................................................................... 37 Figure 20: Travel mode share in Bangalore in 2012 .................................................................................................................. 38 Figure 21: Route map of the first phase of Namma Metro ...................................................................................................... 39 Figure 22: Land use patterns in Bangalore, 2009 ..................................................................................................................... 41 Figure 23: Development Characteristic over Bangalore ............................................................................................................ 41 Figure 24: Trends in the population, motorization, mobility and economy of Bangalore ......................................................