Trends in Global Fisheries Likely Causes & Possible Solutions Rainer Froese IFM-GEOMAR Kiel, Germany Presentation at the WTO Forum in Geneva 17 September 2010 I gratefully acknowledge permission to use slides from Daniel Pauly, Boris Worm, Ram Myers, and Villy Christensen The Status of Global Fisheries 150 Years of Newfoundland Cod Fishery A typical Fishery.. 100 Fully exploited Developing 50 Percent Overfished Un- Collapsed developed or closed 10 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Years Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002 Trends in Global Fisheries 100% 26% 22% Collapsed 5.1 years 4.1 years 31% 80% 5.0 years Overfished Fully exploited 60% 38% Developing 4.3 years 40% Undeveloped Percent of World Fisheries World of Percent 20% 0% ? 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 Years Froese and Kesner-Reyes, ICES 2002 Out of Current Stocks in 2048 ? Worm et al., Science 2006 Stocks (%) 2048 ? Reality CheckCatch in 2008 100% r2=0.975 90% 80% 2110 70% 60% C OF 50% FE D Percentage U 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Years Froese et al. 2008, Marine Policy Out of New Stocks in 2020 45 40 y = 24.27 - 0.4761 x r2 = 0.4780 35 30 25 20 15 Number of new stocks new of Number 10 5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Froese et al. 2008, Marine Policy (t/km2) Biomass of Table Fish in 1900 Christensen et al. 2003 and in 2000…. Christensen et al. 2003 Catch per 100 Hooks 1952 - 1980 Blue Marlin Swordfish Bluefin Tuna Dolphinfish Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 Source: Myers and Worm 2003. Nature 423: 280-283 The Failure of Management by Governments Trends from ‘Working Group’ reports by fisheries scientists in government agencies (NMFS, DFO, DIFMAR, IFREMER, etc.), compiled by R. A. Myers. The Failure of Regional Fishing Organizations With thanks to Ram Myers and Boris Worm Recently confirmed by: Cullis-Suzuki & Pauly 2010. Failing the high seas: a global evaluation of regional fisheries management organizations. In press with Marine Policy If Corrected for Over-Reporting, Global Catches are Declining Since 1988 (a) 90 El Niño events 85 80 ) 6 75 70 65 El Niño event Uncorrected Corrected 60 Corrected, no anchoveta Global catch (t ·10 55 50 45 40 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Watson and Pauly (Nature), 2001. In Summary • Global fisheries have drastically reduced the size of their target stocks, typically by 90% since 1950 • Global catches are declining since the late 1980s; this decline is masked by misreporting to FAO Legal Considerations Is Overfishing Legal? •The Law of the Sea defines the “biomass that can produce the maximum sustainable yield” (Bmsy) as reference point • Stocks that are smaller than Bmsy need to be rebuilt • Harvest levels that reduce the stock below Bmsy are incompatible with the Law of the Sea Cod, Eastern Baltic 1000 BMSY 900 800 700 (1000 t) 600 500 Landings 400 and 300 MSY SSB 200 100 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Froese & Proelß Fish & Fisheries 2010 Ecosystem Impacts of Fisheries Impact on the Sea Floor before after Photos: Dr. K. Sainsbury, CSIRO Area in NZ accessed by Scallop Trawlers Before Area in NZ accessed by Scallop Trawlers Immediately after first trawling Area in NZ accessed by Scallop Trawlers Three years later (Dayton 1998) Tracks of Trawls courtesy F. Grassle Shrimp Trawlers from Space QuickBird satellite on 20 February 2003, off the coast of Jiangsu province near the mouth of the Yangtze River; And More Trawling for Shrimps… Not only in China, also in Texas Here: shrimp trawlers off the Texas Coast, Gulf of Mexico Photo courtesy of Dr. Kyle van Houten (Duke University) Main Causes for Overfishing • Greed • Mismanagement • Subsidies Fisheries Management Basics 8000 MSY MEY Cost of fishing € Growth 6000 overfishing € € Economic F 4000 overfishing pa Recruitment overfishing Flim 2000 Catch in kg and Value/Cost in € ? † 0 0 20406080100 Fishing Effort (hours) EU Fisheries Management 8000 MSY MEY Cost of fishing € 6000 EU 2008: 88% of stocks € MEY and MSY overfished € F 4000 pa 68% EU stocks Subsidies ? beyond Fpa Flim 2000 Catch in kg and Value/Cost in € ? † 0 0 20406080100 Fishing Effort (hours) Possible Solutions Solution: Phase out Subsidies 60 50 40 30 Fuel 20 All except fuel Subsidy amountsSubsidy (USD billion) 10 0 FAO (1992) This study Milazzo (1998) Khan et al. (2006) Removing Subsidies Rebuilds Stocks and Increases Catches in the Mid-term 8000 MSY MEY Cost of fishing € 6000 € € F 4000 pa Flim 2000 Catch in kg and Value/Cost in € ? † 0 0 20406080100 Fishing Effort (hours) Rebuilding Stocks Pays Off • A recent study (Froese et al. in review) shows that European fisheries can produce 60% higher catches if they were managed properly and precautionary (at 0.9 MSY) 0.9 MSY Harvest Control Rule B MSY 1.3 B MSY 1.6 Move stocks here. Landings may then 1.4 be 60% higher 1.2 MSY 1 MSY 0.9 MSY 0.8 Landings / Landings 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 00.511.52 Bioma ss / B MSY Froese et al., submitted Conclusions • Fish stocks are declining worldwide • Overfishing is drastically changing the marine ecosystems • Overfishing is driven by mismanagement and subsidies • Fisheries can produce more food, livelihood, profit and taxes if done properly Thank You Rainer Froese IFM-GEOMAR Kiel, Germany Presentation at the WTO Forum in Geneva 17 September 2010.