Our changing climate, our changing lives The South East © i-Stock Introduction What does England mean to you? Is it village greens, country gardens, The year 2007 saw sunbathers flocking to the song thrushes, the oak tree, carpets beaches in the hottest April on record, quickly of bluebells, ancient woodland, followed by flash flooding in June that destroyed 1 primroses and hedgehogs – thousands of homes and killed 11 people . or our bustling towns and cities? In 2008 we witnessed the warmest two January days ever. The weather is changing. Scientists Is it apple orchards, local spuds, around the world and the three main UK political rhubarb crumble, roast beef and parties all agree that this climate change is largely fish ’n’ chips? Or golf courses, your the result of human activity. They also agree that allotment, fishing, the Six Nations any increase in the global average temperature and the Ashes? above 2°C will be catastrophic for our way of life. To try and prevent any temperature rise above Or is it simply home? 2°C, all the world’s wealthy countries will have to Whatever it means to you, the cut their carbon emissions (the main cause of England we know and love is in peril climate change) by at least 80% by 2050. owing to climate change. So, as climate change causes the Arctic ice cap to melt and threatens over a quarter of the world’s wildlife with extinction, what does Baldock Bletchley Letchworth Toddington Thaxted Halstead Winslow Hitchin Harwich this all mean closer to home? Chipping Norton Leighton Buzzard Stevenage Stanstead Bicester Colchester Dunstable Braintree Luton Great Dunmow Bishops Stortford Walton-on-the-Naze In England, climate change is projected Welwyn Hatfield Heath Tiptree Aylesbury Garden City Ware Clacton-on-Sea Tring Hertford Witney Hemel Hempstead Harlow Hatfield Maldon to result in: Berkhamsted Bradwell Oxford Thame St Albans Chelmsford Chesham Cheshunt Epping Abingdon Radlett Faringdon Watford - Hotter, drier summers Barnet Enfield Billericay High Wycombe Brentwood Rochford Wallingford Edgware Walthamstow Romford - More frequent water shortages Wantage Harrow Basildon Wembley Hackney Henley on Thames Dagenham Uxbridge Southend-on-Sea Goring Slough Camden - Flash flooding Brentford Newnham Maidenhead Tilbury Greenwich Sheerness Windsor Twickenham Reading Richmond Eltham - More and bigger storms Ascot Lewisham Dartford Gravesend Margate Kingston Gillingham Herne Bay Bromley Rochester Broadstairs Chertsey Surbiton Chatham Newbury Weybridge Croydon Whitstable Sutton Ramsgate And how will climate change impact the South Sittingbourne Faversham Woking Epsom Canterbury Leatherhead Farnborough Sevenoaks Maidstone East of England? What effect could it have on Basingstoke Reigate Westerham Deal Aldershot Guildford Redhill Tonbridge Farnham Dorking Andover office workers in Basingstoke? Farmers in Godalming Headcorn Ashford Alton ENGLAND (S.E.) Royal Tunbridge Wells Dover Oxfordshire? Orchards in Kent? East Grinstead Sandgate Kingsfold Crawley Cranbrook Folkestone Winchester Haslemere Hythe Horsham Wadhurst Cuckfield Mayfield The region will probably remain one of the hottest Petersfield Haywards Heath New Romney Petworth Uckfield Eastleigh Midhurst Lydd and driest in the country and, depending on the Burgess Hill Rye Battle Storrington Winchelsea season, face either water shortages or severe Southampton Lewes Hailsham Fareham Arundel Hastings Havant Shoreham-by-Sea St Leonards Chichester Brighton flooding. Climate change could alter everything Worthing Gosport Littlehampton Portsmouth Newhaven Lymington Cowes Bognor Regis Eastbourne Seaford from golfing to gardening, from house prices to Selsey Ryde Newport hedgehogs, from farming to fishing. We have the Shanklin choice to limit the impacts on our homes, our health and our heritage – and increasingly politicians, business and the public are working together to find solutions to move towards a low-carbon society. This booklet takes a look at some of these solutions. However, one thing is certain: the South East of England we know and love could look very different in the not-so-distant future. 1 http://observer.guardian.co.uk/magazine/story/0,,2230209,00.html © Brent Stirton / Getty Images WWF-UK © Brent Rail travel in England is infamous for being easily disrupted by the weather, but if leaves on the line result in lengthy delays, imagine what could happen Work as climate change becomes more severe. © Jiri REZAC / WWF-UK The daily commute Down on the farm Cider producers in Kent, Sussex and Hampshire Three-quarters of people in the South East travel Life for the South East’s farmers will change. could initially see bumper harvests from warmer to work by car2 which in itself contributes to Seventy per cent of land in the South East is summers for the next decade or so. However, if climate change. The daily commute could be a farmed. Agriculture and horticulture employ winters become too warm in the South East, the whole different experience as a result of climate 50,000 people in the region3. Rising fuel prices buds will not set, which could mean that apple change. As summer temperatures rise, road across the globe could mean that we bring in a lot orchards, already in decline for commercial surfaces could suffer, resulting in lower speed less food from abroad; this could mean that the reasons, could become a thing of the past. Instead they could be replaced by lemon, orange limits and lower CO2 emissions. These roads are British farming industry grows. Rising energy already under strain as they are some of the most prices will also mean that inorganic fertilisers and even peach trees. heavily used in the UK. Rising fuel prices resulting are much more expensive. The English wine industry could flourish. There are from global shortages will hit commuters hard – The South East will continue to be one of the already over 60 vineyards in the South East of they may be forced to find different methods of hottest and driest regions of the country. Severe England and this number is set to soar alongside transport, or to work more flexibly. Searing water shortages combined with rising rising temperatures. French Champagne summer temperatures will make for temperatures could change farming conditions. producers are already turning their attention to uncomfortable driving and increasing air pollution. Small increases in temperature could mean South East England as climate change affects 4 Rail travel in England is infamous for being easily increased yields of traditional crops. But as their vineyards in France . Hampshire rosé and disrupted by the weather but if leaves on the line temperatures continue to rise and water becomes Sussex dry sparkling wine could eventually result in lengthy delays, imagine what could more and more scarce, yields of traditional crops become the tipple of choice for wine drinkers. happen as the change in climate becomes more will get smaller and the geographic range in which For more information on the challenges and severe. Prolonged hot spells could lead to speed they can be cultivated will move northwards. opportunities that climate change presents to restrictions from buckled and fractured rails or Farmers in the South East, however, could be farmers and land managers and ways to adapt to trackside fires. Heavy bursts of rain could lead to forced to try new types of crops: sunflowers, soya, and mitigate climate change, visit the Farming railway embankments and cuttings becoming even olives and figs. But it could be bad news for © Sonny Meddle / Rex Features Futures website: www.farmingfutures.co.uk unstable, tracks flooding and bridges being the berry industry in the South East. Strawberries, weakened, while high winds could prompt speed raspberries, blackcurrants, redcurrants, © i-Stock All washed out restrictions on routes with overhead lines or gooseberries, blackberries and hybrid berries are The floods of the past five years have already cost nearby trees. On the plus side, however, warmer all high water-consuming crops and susceptible to small and medium UK businesses £864 million5. winters could reduce the age-old problem of extreme weather. Farmers may increasingly need Flash floods and storm surges are set to increase frozen points, and the ‘wrong kind of snow’ to grow them in polytunnels to shelter them from as the climate changes; this will particularly affect might no longer cause problems. extreme weather events and to control the low-lying South East, impacting thousands of evaporation of water. But even that will only work businesses in addition to industrial areas. Office hours as long as the temperature does not rise too high. Take the examples of Fawley Power Station and If you work in an office, soaring temperatures As the climate continues to change, there will be Oil Refinery, both of which are vulnerable to could make those summer days very sticky. an increasing need for farmers to look after the flooding from high tides and sea level rises on Rising fuel prices and power shortages may mean natural environment on their farms and protect the Southampton Water, or think of the vulnerability that air-conditioning is no longer a feasible option important ‘ecosystem services’ that their land of Thamesport, the UK’s third largest container for many. Instead, offices might opt for external provides. This will help the natural environment, port, and the proposed industrial and blinds, shade trees or allowing employees to farm businesses and the region as a whole to warehousing area for Thames Gateway. work more from home. cope with the effects of climate change. 2 www.environment-agency.gov.uk/commondata/acrobat/soe07final_1941006.pdf 4 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/3629187.stm 3 www.soilassociation.org/web/sa/psweb.nsf/A5/south_east.html 5 www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publications/documents/99.pdf Falling river levels could mean that weekend fishing trips become a thing of the past. In the summer of 1997 fishing was forbidden on the River Teise Leisure in Kent because of low flow levels.