February 2015 A27 CORRIDOR FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT 1 OF 3: EVIDENCE REPORT Highways Agency [Job number: 3511134AFJ] A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Report 1 of 3: Evidence Report 3511134AFJ-PTG Prepared for Highways Agency Federated House Dorking Prepared by Parsons Brinckerhoff Godalming www.pbworld.com AUTHORISATION SHEET Client: Highways Agency Project: A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Address: PREPARED BY Name: Tom Pettyt Rohan McGinn Position: Assistant Transportation Planner Regional Associate, Transportation Planning Date: July 2014 AGREED BY Name: Colin McKenna Position: Technical Director, Transportation Planning Date: February 2015 AUTHORISED FOR ISSUE Name: Theo Genis Position: Regional Associate, Transportation Planning Date: February 2015 DISTRIBUTION ACCEPTED BY Name: Position: Date: ACCEPTED BY Name: Position: Date: A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Report 1 of 3: Evidence Report CONTENTS Page 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 1.1 Introduction and Purpose 7 1.2 Overview of A27 Corridor Feasibility Study 7 1.3 Background 8 1.4 Overview of Current situation 8 1.5 Future Situation 10 1.6 The Need for Intervention 10 1.7 Geographic Area of Interest for A27 Corridor Feasibility Study 10 1.8 Intervention Specific Objectives 10 2 INTRODUCTION 12 2.1 Background 12 2.2 Overview of A27 Corridor Feasibility Study 13 2.3 Stakeholder Engagement during Study 15 2.4 Purpose and Content of this Report 16 3 BACKGROUND AND H ISTORICAL WORK 17 3.1 Overview of Previous Studies and Scheme Decisions 17 3.2 The South Coast Multi Modal Study (SoCoMMS) 17 3.3 Further studies following SoCoMMS 21 3.4 Availability and Robustness of Transport Modelling 23 4 STEP 1: UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION 25 4.1 Relevant policies – National Policy 25 4.2 Subnational Policy and Perspectives 26 4.3 Policy Support for Behavioural Change Measures 28 4.4 Current Conditions along the A27 – Environmental Considerations 29 4.5 Current Travel Conditions along the A27 – Travel Demand 29 4.6 Current Travel Provision along the A27 31 4.7 Current Travel Conditions along the A27 – Traffic Volumes 32 4.8 Current Travel Conditions along the A27 – Journey Time Reliability 33 4.9 Current Travel Conditions along the A27 – Ratio of Flow to Link Capacity 34 4.10 Current Travel Conditions along the A27 – Road Safety and Incidents 34 4.11 Current Conditions along the A27 – Community Severance and Access 37 4.12 Summary of Current Travel Conditions along the A27 37 5 STEP 2: UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE SITUATION 40 5.1 Extant Planned Transport Infrastructure 40 5.2 Growth Plans – Strategic Economic Plans 41 5.3 Growth Plans - Local Authority Aspirations 43 5.4 Growth Plans – Airports Commission 44 5.5 Predicted Future Traffic Conditions along the A27 44 6 STEP 3: ESTABLISHING THE NEED FOR INTERVENTION 49 6.1 Mismatch between Policy Ambition and Current and Future Route Performance 49 A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Prepared by Parsons Brinckerhoff February 2015 for Highways Agency - 5 - A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Report 1 of 3: Evidence Report 6.2 Example: The Implications of Transport Interventions on Economic Growth 49 7 STEP 4A: IDENTIFYING AND REFINING OBJECTIVES 51 7.1 Identifying and refining objectives 51 8 STEP 4B: REDEFINING GEOGRAPHIC AREA OF INTEREST 52 9 SUMMARY OF STUDY STAGE 1 REPORT 54 9.2 Next Steps 54 GLOSSARY 55 List of Figures Figure 2-1: Geographic scope of A27 Corridor Feasibility Study .................................................. 14 Figure 3-1: Timeline for past studies ................................................................................................ 18 Figure 4-1: Method of Travel to Work 2001 & 2011 Census % Comparison ................................. 30 Figure 4-2: Method of Travel to Work 2001 & 2011 Census Comparison ..................................... 30 Figure 4-3: Average Daily Traffic Volumes along the A27 (two-way) ............................................ 33 Figure 4-4: Map of 2013 Ratio of Link Flow to Link Capacity (vehs/hour) .................................... 35 Figure 4-5: Summary of Current Travel Conditions along the A27 ............................................... 39 Figure 5-1: Proposals identified in Strategic Economic Plans (SEP) ............................................ 42 Figure 5-2: Map of 2021 Ratio of Flow to Capacity .......................................................................... 46 Figure 5-3: Map of 2031 Ratio of Flow to Capacity .......................................................................... 47 Figure 5-4: Summary of Predicted Future Traffic Conditions along the A27 ............................... 48 List of Tables Table 2-1: A27 Study Stakeholder Reference Group meetings ...................................................... 15 Table 3-1: Environmental Concerns .................................................................................................. 19 Table 3-2: Summary of available transport models and their relevance ....................................... 24 Table 4-1: Route Performance based on Journey Time Reliability ............................................... 34 Table 4-2 Casualty trend for every three year period West Sussex (Source: 5.11.3, Area 4 Road Safety Statement 2012, Highways Agency) .............................................................................. 36 Table 4-3 Casualty trend for every three year period East Sussex (Source: 5.11.3, Area 4 Road Safety Statement 2012, Highways Agency) .............................................................................. 36 Table 5-1: Local Authority Growth Plans .......................................................................................... 43 A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Prepared by Parsons Brinckerhoff February 2015 for Highways Agency - 6 - A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Report 1 of 3: Evidence Report 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Introduction and Purpose 1.1.1 The A27 corridor feasibility study is one of six studies undertaken by the Department for Transport (DfT) to investigate problems and identify potential solutions to tackle some of the most notorious and long-standing road ‘hot spots’ in the country. 1.1.2 This report summarises the evidence gathering phase (Study Stage 1) of the A27 Feasibility Study. It sets out the evidence describing the current and future situations, identifies problems from the evidence, and – against the policy context – identifies the need for intervention. The evidence assessment was used to identify intervention specific objectives and to refine the geographic area of interest. 1.1.3 The prioritised problem areas (where need for intervention have been identified) form the basis for Study Stages 2 and 3 and are identified from Study Stage 1 as follows: • Arundel; • Worthing and Lancing; and • East of Lewes - specifically the stretch of road between Lewes and Polegate. 1.2 Overview of A27 Corridor Feasibility Study 1.2.1 Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) was commissioned by the Highways Agency (HA) to undertake a feasibility study on the A27 Corridor on behalf of the DfT in November 2013. 1.2.2 The purpose, scope and approach used for the A27 Corridor Feasibility Study are set out in a Scope Document issued by the DfT and HA1. This required the study to take a proportionate approach and to be completed in accordance with DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance (January 2014) and in three stages which are set out below. 1.2.3 This report is the first of three reports covering the Study Stages, as follows: 1 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/345568/a27-feasibility-study-scope.pdf A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Prepared by Parsons Brinckerhoff February 2015 for Highways Agency - 7 - A27 Corridor Feasibility Study Report 1 of 3: Evidence Report 1.3 Background 1.3.1 The A27 is the only east-west trunk road south of the M25. It links various cities and towns along the south coast, accommodating over three quarters of a million people, including Portsmouth, Havant, Chichester, Arundel, Worthing and Lancing, Brighton and Hove, Lewes and Eastbourne. The A27 also provides access to Hayling Island, the Manhood Peninsula, Bognor Regis, Littlehampton and the ports of Portsmouth, Shoreham, and Newhaven, and provides businesses and residents in this corridor with access to the rest of the strategic road network (SRN). The A27 is located in the southern part of the sub-regional economic area referred to as the Gatwick Diamond. 1.3.2 The local economy has strengths in advanced engineering, tourism and other sectors and has accommodated substantial population and household growth over the past decade, particularly in the urban areas. The A27 corridor runs alongside and across the South Downs National Park (SDNP) and the corridor is constrained by the urban areas along the route and the sea to the south. 1.3.3 There have been long-standing calls to improve the A27 corridor. Infrastructure enhancements along the A27 and beyond were previously considered as part of the South Coast Multi Modal Study (SoCoMMS) which reported in 2002. The study concluded that there was little justification for a long distance strategic south coast route between Southampton and Margate. It did, however, identify the need for a number of investments along the A27. Only some of these were progressed at the time owing to concern about potential difficulties of delivering major road schemes in environmentally sensitive locations. 1.3.4 Further studies have since been undertaken by the Highways Agency and local authorities respectively. Highway improvements have