COAL UTILIZATION IN AN UNCERTAIN ECONOMIC WORLD (A SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE) Frans Waanders, School of Chemical and Minerals Engineering, North-West University (Potchefstroom Campus), Potchefstroom 2531, SOUTH AFRICA and All other South African coal researchers IPCC Oct 2015 Pittsburgh USA Outline • Introduction • Setting the coal scene • The energy needs - Africa • Economics • Global economic information • South African scenario • Other alternatives • State of Energy Research in South Africa • Renewable non-bio Energy (wind, solar, fracking) • Nuclear Energy • Bio-Energy • Fossil Fuel Energy – the one remaining source • Final Conclusions • Research: NWU • IPCC 2016 Setting the coal scene coal the Setting 275 Regions with very large coal reserves(Billioncoal large tons) Shortvery Regions with 55 93 173 126 91 The energy needs - Africa • Around 77% of South Africa's energy needs are directly derived from coal • Almost 90% of South Africa's • 92% of coal consumed on the African continent is electricity is generated in coal- mined in South Africa. fired power stations. • South Africa supplies two-thirds of Africa's • Koeberg, a large nuclear electricity station near Cape Town, provides about 5% of capacity. • A further 5% is provided by hydroelectric and pumped storage schemes. • Renewables are starting to come online http://www.energy.gov.za/ "Coal". Department of Energy (SA). Global economic information How to stimulate the Economy • Print more money • Undermine the currency • Implement structural changes Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 South African scenario Result • Ideologically confused • Contradictory policies • Weak implementation Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 Additionally about 20% have stopped seeking jobs Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 Dawie Roodt SAUCGA 23/08/15 How to deal with the energy crisis in South Africa and the utilization of resources when these economic matters are in play?? THAT IS THE QUESTION Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn, and cauldron bubble. With thanks: Shakespeare’s Macbeth Is it better to know or not to know With Thanks: Shakespeare’s Hamlet State of Energy Research in South Africa Frikkie van Niekerk (DVC NWU) May 2014 The DST 10 year Innovation Plan (2008) • Embracing Renewable Energy Technologies (Non-Bio and Bio) • Nuclear Energy Revisited • Clean Coal Technologies The Integrated Resource Plan or IRP 2010 Nuclear!! • More than 20 000 MW of renewable energy will be contracted – bio, wind, solar. • Nuclear?? • Older coal-fired power stations will be decommissioned (about 11 000MW) and new coal-fired power stations (about 6 000 MW) commissioned Wind and solar ?? Only operational solar plant 100MW 2015 With some 400 MW planned before 2020 The first large scale wind farm in South Africa became operational in 2014, and others are in planning and construction stages 6 farms with total energy < 330MW 6 planned with total energy 430 MW 2 farms with total 800 MW possible THUS before 2020 <1 GW http://www.ipprenewables.co.za/ Fracking ?? Shale gas in the Karoo will prove "a game-changer" for the South African economy, President Jacob Zuma said on Thursday. In his state-of-the-nation address, delivered at Parliament, he told MPs government had evaluated the risks and opportunities involved in extracting shale gas, a process known as fracking. "Having evaluated the risks and opportunities, the final regulations will be released soon and will be followed by the processing and granting of licenses. "The development of petroleum, especially shale gas, will be a game-changer for the Karoo region and the South African economy." But what is the current situation ?? Although the moratorium on exploration for shale gas in the Karoo was lifted 10 months ago, no drilling has taken place yet, and is unlikely to do so for 6 to 18 months. WHAT THE FRACK 1 Well: 20 Million litres of water. 2500 trucks. 32 wells on a pad. 10 pads in a development. Many developments in SA. 52% of the Karoo. More than 20% of SA. France has banned it. Many US cities don’t want it. IS Fracking the answer for SA? http://www.treasurethekaroo.co.za/fracking-facts/applications-for-shale-gas-exploration Nuclear?? Nuclear energy 1 Experimental site – Safari 1 1 Operational site: Koeberg 1.8 GW Possible deal for $100bn to build 8 nuclear power plants in South Africa by Russia Currently a hotly debated topic Renewable Energy Technologies (Bio) What is the Ecological Footprint? What is it composed of? The Ecological Footprint is the area of land and water it takes for a human population to generate the renewable resources it consumes and to absorb the corresponding waste it generates, using prevailing technology. In other words, it measures the "quantity of nature" that we use and compares it with how much "nature" we have. What is Biocapacity? Biocapacity serves as a lens, showing the capacity of biosphere to regenerate and provide for life. It allows researchers to add up the competing human demands, which include natural resources, waste absorption, water renewal, and productive areas dedicated to urban uses. As an aggregate, biocapacity allows us to determine how large the material metabolism of human economies is compared to what nature can renew. 14 High Very High HDI and Ecological Footprint per person Human Human for Nations by World Regions Development Development 12 Africa Middle East/Central Asia 10 Asia-Pacific South America Central America/Caribbean 8 North America EU Other Europe 6 4 (gha) Capita Per Footprint Ecological World Biocapacity in 2 World Biocapacity in 2011 Minimum Global Sustainable Development Quadrant 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 U.N. Human Development Index (HDI) Ecological Footprint values are 2011 values from the 2015 National Footprint Accounts, Global Footprint Network HDI 2011 values are from the 2014 Human Development Report, UNDP © 2015 Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition. Please contact Global Footprint Network at [email protected] for more information. © 2015 Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition. Please contact Global Footprint Network at [email protected] for more information. Germany South Africa Australia The World © 2015 Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition. Please contact Global Footprint Network at [email protected] for more information. THE ONE REMAINING SOURCE The Benefits and Challenges Associated With Coal in South Africa. Rob Jeffrey, Rosemary Falcon, Andrew Kinghorn . www.cornerstonemag.net South Africa: Coal statistics The Benefits and Challenges Associated With Coal in Souh Africa. DMR Public Mining Data Rob Jeffrey, Rosemary Falcon, Andrew Kinghorn . www.cornerstonemag.net The Benefits and Challenges Associated With Coal in South Africa. Rob Jeffrey, Rosemary Falcon, Andrew Kinghorn . www.cornerstonemag.net DMR Public Mining Data South African coal chain 2010 © CSIR 2006 Slide 31 www.csir.co.za Courtesy Andre Engelbrecht (CSIR) and SANERI The most important coal users in South Africa Sasol – the South African leg 1950 S.A. Coal, Oil & Gas Corporation founded 1954 Sigma Colliery starts production in April Gasification testing starts in November 1955 First production at Sasol One - 8 drums of creosote 1964 Sigma Colliery produces 20 millionth ton (10 years after commissioning) 1969 Natref oil refinery in Sasolburg commissioned 1974 Sasol Two announced 1976 Construction of Sasol Two starts First functional Secunda colliery, Bosjesspruit 1979 Sasol Limited listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Sasol announced plans to construct Sasol Three next to Sasol Tw0 1992 Wonderwater open cast strip mine commences near Sasol One 2003 Sasol listed on New York Stock Exchange 2004 Mozambique Natural Gas project completed – supplying Sasol, Sasolburg 2010 New ethylene purification unit in Sasolburg 2012 Sasol New Energy constructs a 140 MW electricity generation plant, Sasolburg ww.sasol.co.za/about-sasol/company-profile South Africa: Sasol www.sasol.com The Sasol process In production 140 MW Power plant Southern raw materials operations products International Africa under gas to liquids automotive fuels natural gas construction production gas transmission & marketing pipeline gas procured oil refining & fuel marketing automotive fuels crude oil coal synfuels mines production steam coal energy Chemical intermediates chemicals olefins & surfactants coal South African chemical solvents natural gas operations polymers oil Products International chemical nitrogen products natural gas operations waxes JC van Dyk 22nd IPCC 2005 The influence of the oil price Escalating oil price….caused by supply constraints and increased demand resulting in…. Current Increased emphasis on alternatives levels Renewed interest in coal use 40 Sasol 3 30 20 Sasol 1 Sasol 2 10 0 Crude oil (constant $/bbl) oil (constant Crude 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 CTL likely to be viable at crude oil prices > USD $35/bbl JC van Dyk 22nd IPCC 2005 and http://www.infomine.com/ ESKOM: Coal fired power plants 20 power plants generate some 40GW of electricity 5 gas turbines supply 2.5GW of electricity President Zuma officially opened the Medupi Power Station Unit 6, Liphalale, Limpopo on 30 August 2015. Medupi: The power station will be the fourth largest coal plant in the southern hemisphere, and will be the biggest dry-cooled power station in the world While Unit 6 has just