THE NEW RIGHT THINK TANKS AND POLICY CHANGE IN THE UK Andrew James Tesseyman DPhil Thesis University of York Politics Department Submitted, February 1999 Abstract It has often been claimed that, during the 1980s and early 1990s, the new right think tanks — namely the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), and Adam Smith Institute (ASI) — had a major impact on policy-making and policy change. This thesis addresses such claims by examining three reforms in which the new right think tanks have been attributed an influence — bus deregulation, education reform, and prison privatisation. It seeks not only to empirically assess their impact, but also to relate these findings to the policy-making literature, in particular the Rhodes Model which emphasises policy continuity and the Advocacy Coalition Framework which seeks to explain policy change. It is argued that the new right think tanks had an impact on all three policy changes, as members of "advocacy coalitions", although the nature and extent of this impact varied. In some cases, the TEA, CPS, and ASI were able to have a direct impact on policy change, obtaining access to policy-makers through coalition allies. In other cases their impact was indirect, in shaping the broader "climate of ideas". The new right think tanks also contributed to new patterns of policy formulation, although there is limited evidence of any long-term structural impact on policy-making in these areas. It is also argued that the case studies raise a number of issues for the Rhodes Model and the Advocacy Coalition Framework, although these could be addressed by integrating the two to develop an approach to account for both policy continuity and policy change. Contents List of Tables v Abbreviations vi Acknowledgements ix 1. The Parameters of Analysis 1 The Think Tank Literature in the UK 3 Thinking the Unthinkable by Richard Cockett 4 Think Tanks of the New Right by Andrew Denham 6 Capturing the Political Imagination by Diane Stone 8 Contemporary British History: Ideas and Think Tanks in Contemporary Britain Vols. 1&2 9 Building on the Literature 10 Research Aims and Approach 11 Research Strategy and Methodology 14 Case Studies 15 Sources 18 Application 21 Research Outline 24 Notes 25 PART ONE — A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSMENT 2. Think Tanks in the UK 27 Definition and Classification 27 Defining Think Tanks 28 Classification 32 Think Tanks, Policy Advice and Policy Analysis 40 New Right Think Tanks: A Survey 45 i The Institute of Economic Affairs 47 The Centre for Policy Studies 52 The Adam Smith Institute 56 Policy-Making and the New Right Think Tanks 60 A New Right Network 61 The New Right Think Tanks and "Agenda-Setting" 65 Conclusion 67 Notes 68 3. Think Tanks, Networks, and Coalitions 69 Policy Networks 70 Key Characteristics of the Rhodes Model 72 The Rhodes Model, Think Tanks, and Policy Change 74 The Advocacy Coalition Framework 86 Key Tenets of the ACF 87 The ACF: Problems of Application 92 Epistemic Communities 99 The Template: A Framework for Assessment 101 The Rhodes Model and the ACF 101 Defining the Template 103 Conclusion 106 Notes 108 PART TWO — CASE STUDIES 4. Bus Deregulation 110 Policy-Making in the Bus Industry 112 The Rise of Regulation 112 The Role of Local Government 113 The Bus Industry and the Rhodes Model 116 Towards Bus Deregulation 121 Think Tanks and Bus Deregulation 121 The Road to Deregulation 1979-85 126 Advocacy Coalitions and Bus Deregulation 131 The Pro-Deregulation Coalition 132 The Anti-Deregulation Coalition 136 The Role of Ministers 142 The Context of Bus Deregulation 143 11 Ideological — The New Paradigm of Deregulation 144 Political — The Conservatives' "Attack" on Local Government 146 Socioeconomic — The Problem of Subsidy 149 The New Right Think Tanks and Bus Deregulation: An Evaluation 151 The Impact of the New Right Think Tanks 151 Think Tanks, Bus Deregulation and Policy-Making 152 Conclusion 154 Notes 156 5. Education Reform 158 Policy-Making in Education 160 Conventional Models of Policy-Making in Education 160 Education Policy 1944-94 163 Towards Education Reform 166 The Black Papers 167 The Battle for the Voucher 169 The New Right Pamphleteers 171 Postscript — The Implementation of the 1988 Act 172 Advocacy Coalitions and Education Reform 173 The New Right Coalition 174 Centralisation and the DES 178 Vocationalism, the MSC and the DEmp 183 The Anti-Reform Coalition 186 The Role of Ministers 191 The Context of Education Reform 193 Political/Ideological — Education as Statecraft 194 Socioeconomic — Declining Educational Standards 196 The New Right Think Tanks and Education Reform: An Assessment 199 The Role and Impact of the New Right Think Tanks 199 The New Right Think Tanks, Education Reform, and Policy-Making 203 Conclusion 205 Notes 207 6. Prison Privatisation 208 Policy-making in the Penal System 209 Fragmentation and the Criminal Justice System 210 The Importance of Events 213 Ideological Polarisation 214 Penal Policy and the Rhodes Model 217 111 The Development of Prison Privatisation 221 Advocacy Coalition and Prison Privatisation 227 The Pro-Privatisation Coalition 228 The Anti-Privatisation Coalition 234 The Role of Ministers 240 The Context of Prison Privatisation 242 Ideological — The Ascendance of Privatisation 243 Political — Taming the Prison Officers' Association 244 Socioeconomic — The Problem of Overcrowding 246 The New Right Think Tanks and Prison Privatisation: An Assessment 247 The Role of the ASI 247 The ASI, Think Tanks, and Policy-Making 248 Conclusion 250 Notes 253 7. The Impact of the New Right Think Tanks 255 Assessing the New Right Think Tanks 255 The Role and Impact of the New Right Think Tanks in Policy Change 255 The Impact of the New Right Think Tanks on Policy-Making 260 The Impact of the New Right Think Tanks — A Summary 263 Think Tanks, Policy Networks, and Advocacy Coalitions 264 Policy Networks and Advocacy Coalitions 265 Resource Dependencies and Belief Systems 267 The Rhodes Model and the ACF — Understanding Continuity and Change 269 Think Tanks, Policy Networks and Advocacy Coalitions - A Summary 273 Conclusion 273 Areas for Future Research 274 The Future of the New Right Think Tanks 276 Notes 280 Bibliography 281 iv List of Tables Table 1 "Scores on the Doors" 22 Table 2 "The Ideas Business" 22 Table 3 The Stone Typology of Policy Institutes 34 Table 4 A New Classification of Think Tanks 40 Table 5 Policy Community and Policy Network: The Rhodes Model 74 Table 6 The Advocacy Coalition Framework 88 Table 7 The Nine Hypotheses of the ACF 91 Table 8 Key Provisions of the Transport Act 1980 127 Table 9 The Transport Act 1985 131 Table 10 Overlap in the New Right Coalition 175 Table 11 Groups Attending the SCE Conference 189 Table 12 Prison Privatisation — Key Developments 1984-94 227 Table 13 The Penal Affairs Consortium 236 V Abbreviations ACC Association of County Councils ACF Advocacy Coalition Framework ADC Association of District Councils AMA Association of Metropolitan Authorities ASI Adam Smith Institute BCC Bus and Coach Council BSIA British Security Industry Association CCO Conservative Central Office CJCC Criminal Justice Consultative Council COMA Committee on the Medical Aspects of Food Policy CPS Centre for Policy Studies CPSESG Centre for Policy Studies Education Study Group CPRS Central Policy Review Staff CLEA Council of Local Education Authorities CNACE Conservative National Advisory Council on Education CPPU Crime Policy Planning Unit CRD Conservative Research Department CTC City Technology College DEmp Department of Employment DES Department of Education and Science DfEE Department of Education and Employment DHS Deloitte, Hoskins and Sells DOE Department of the Environment DoH Department of Health DTp Department of Transport EPF European Policy Forum ERA Education Reform Act (1988) FEVER Friends of the Education Voucher in Experimental Regions GLC Greater London Council GMS Grant Maintained School IEA Institute of Economic Affairs IFS Institute for Fiscal Studies IPPR Institute for Public Policy Research IPT Informal Passenger Transport ILEA Inner London Education Authority LEA Local Education Authority LMS Local Management of Schools LSE London School of Economics HASC Home Affairs Select Committee (House of Commons) HMI Her Majesties Inspectorate MSC Manpower Services Commission NACRO National Association for the Care and Resettlement of Offenders NASUWT National Association of Schoolmasters / Union of Women Teachers NAPO National Association of Probation Officers NCC National Curriculum Council NBC National Bus Company NCES National Council of educational Standards NIESR National Institute for Economic and Social Research NTBG No Turning Back Group NUT National Union of Teachers PAC Penal Affairs Consortium PAR Programme Analysis and Review PGA Prison Governors Association PNP Prisons are Not for Profit! POA Prison Officers' Association PPBS Planning-Programming-Budgeting System PRT Prison Reform Trust PTA Passenger Transport Authority PTCG Public Transport Campaign Group PTE Passenger Transport Executive PTEG Passenger Transport Executive Group RPTSG Road Passenger Transport Steering Group SAU Social Affairs Unit SBG Scottish Bus Group SCE Standing Conference on Education SEAC Schools Examination and Assessment Council vii SCAA Schools Curriculum and Assessment Authority SMF Social Market Foundation TES Times Educational Supplement TSC Transport Select Committee (House of Commons) TSG Transport Supplementary Grant TVEI Technical and Vocational Educational Initiative UKDS United Kingdom Detention Services Acknowledgements First of all I would like to thank the Politics Department of the University of York for funding me for three years, and Professor Rod Rhodes for his early encouragement. During the course of this thesis I have benefited from the comments and advice of a number of people. In particular I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr Neil Carter, who struck a masterly balance between enthusiasm and criticism throughout, and Dr Keith Alderman whose comments have ensured a greater degree of consistency, clarity and accuracy.