> THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPEN AND DISAGGREGATED TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ROLE OF TIP IN INDIA C ONSULTING REPORT FOR THE TELECOM INFRA PROJECT THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPEN AND DISAGGREGATED TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ROLE OF TIP IN INDIA David Abecassis, Michael Kende, Shahan Osman, Rohan Dhamija, Ashwinder Sethi JULY 2021 analysysmason.com 1 Contents 1 Countries around the world, including India, can benefit from open and disaggregated solutions given testing, interoperability and policy support 3 2 Operators in India are seeking more cost-efficient and flexible network deployment methods to meet rapidly growing demand 5 2.1 Demand for connectivity in India is expected to continue growing significantly in coming years 5 2.2 Operators in India are actively exploring open and disaggregated solutions to meet growing demand 6 2.3 A developed open ecosystem could also enable new business models for providers across India 8 3 The supply chain ecosystem for disaggregated solutions in India is highly active and is driven by government support 9 3.1 Domestic and international companies are contributing to a vibrant network supply chain in India, driven in part by a strong government push to build local production capabilities 9 3.2 TIP is actively involved in facilitating collaboration and accelerating productisation in India 11 3.3 Maintaining openness and interoperability is crucial for maximising the potential of open solutions 13 4 Open RAN can generate USD18 billion in added GDP per annum for India in 2030, and USD58 billion from 2021–30 14 4.1 In India, Open RAN can accelerate improvements in connectivity and generate significant GDP impact over the next decade 14 4.2 Faster adoption would increase cumulative impacts and greater efficacy would add to higher GDP impact, potentially doubling GDP impact over the next decade to over USD120 billion 17 4.3 Key stakeholders should be aligned on maintaining openness and interoperability to maximise economic benefits while developing a strong production base over the long term 19 Disclaimer and acknowledgements This report was commissioned and sponsored by the Telecom Infra Project (TIP), and written by Analysys Mason, a global consultancy specialising in telecoms, media and technology. Analysys Mason is grateful for all inputs during the research and preparation of this report, including Confidentiality Notice: This document and the Analysys Mason Limited discussions with a number of organisations information contained herein are strictly North West Wing, Bush House including C-DOT, STL (Sterlite Technologies private and confidential, and are solely for the Aldwych Limited), the Tower and Infrastructure Providers use of Telecom Infra Project, Inc. (‘TIP’). London WC2B 4PJ Association (TAIPA) in India, Vodafone Idea (Vi), UK VVDN Technologies, and others. Copyright © 2021. Analysys Mason has Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 produced the information contained herein for [email protected] The analysis contained in this document is the sole TIP. 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Wales No. 5177472 > THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPEN AND DISAGGREGATED TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ROLE OF TIP IN INDIA 1 Countries around the world, including India, can benefit from open and disaggregated solutions given testing, interoperability and policy support Growing consumer and enterprise demand for mobile (ODMs),2 vendors and systems integrators, is also internet services in India and around the world will responding to growing demand and government- continue to drive coverage and capacity needs, and backed initiatives by developing new disaggregated mobile operators require improved network economics solutions spanning various network parts and by to overcome pressure on margins and to deliver future continuing to foster relationships with international requirements. customers to capitalise on emerging export opportunities. Open and disaggregated technologies, provided by a range of suppliers based on common industry Across the globe, the Telecom Infra Project (TIP) helps requirements, could provide greater cost efficiency and to aggregate demand for providers of emerging faster deployment of new network functions, resulting technologies across the network stack, and facilitates in downstream benefits for service providers and the testing and validation of solutions, which helps to consumers, including: accelerate deployment.3 In India, TIP is currently bringing together operators, vendors and systems • connecting the unconnected and enhancing integrators to collaborate on open and disaggregated connectivity technologies across core, transport and access networks, as well as end-to-end solutions. • providing opportunities for local manufacturing, software innovation and workforce development India is expected to be at the forefront of open and disaggregated technology adoption and production in • enabling faster economic growth and a more rapidly years to come due to the amount of activity driven by its developing digital economy. operators, the government and supply chain participants in developing open and disaggregated A more comprehensive overview of the benefits of open technologies. For Open RAN alone, we estimate that and disaggregated technologies can be found in a the incremental GDP impact in India could reach global report published by Analysys Mason on this USD18 billion per annum in 2030 (USD58 billion issue earlier in 2021.1 cumulatively from 2021–30), driven by enhancements to mobile internet penetration and data usage. In India, mobile operators have been actively exploring Modelling suggests that these impacts could more the use of open and disaggregated technologies in than double over the period from 2021–30, should their networks, and have also started to develop industry facilitation initiatives driven by operators, the in-house solutions that can be exported globally (if and government, as well as organisations such as TIP be as when proven) and scale beyond India to the world. The successful as envisaged by many of the stakeholders government of India is also taking steps to strengthen driving Open RAN in India today. local manufacturing capabilities. This involves incentivising large global players to set up production facilities in India. More importantly in the context of open and disaggregated network technology, the government’s efforts also include supporting home- grown companies to develop solutions that could meet local demand for network equipment and software for years to come, while also exploiting opportunities in the global export market. The supply chain ecosystem in India, made up of original design manufacturers 1 See https://www.analysysmason.com/consulting-redirect/reports/impact-of-open-and-disaggregated-technologies-and-TIP/ 2 ODMs design and manufacture products, and either sell products to end users directly, or to other companies for rebranding and downstream sales. 3 See https://telecominfraproject.com/how-we-work/ 3 > THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF OPEN AND DISAGGREGATED TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ROLE OF TIP IN INDIA In India, multiple stakeholders in the telecoms networking sector are actively driving the development of a diverse supply chain ecosystem MANY POTENTIAL FACTORS FOR SUCCESS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE OPEN NETWORKING ECOSYSTEM IN INDIA TO ACHIEVE SIGNIFICANT GROWTH Factors Present? Ongoing developments Operator - Main MNOs are exploring use and development of open solutions interest - Other connectivity providers are engaged in open industry initiatives Supply chain - Investments by home-grown vendors, manufacturers, system integrators investment - Interest from global incumbents in boosting production in India Industry - Local industry bodies such as TAIPA are encouraging enabling policies collaboration - Active international initiatives such as TIP Government - Production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for telecoms network support equipment manufacturing - Prime Minister Wi-Fi Access Network Interface (PM-WANI) scheme CASE STUDY: COMPANIES IN INDIA ARE CAPITALISING ON THE PM-WANI FRAMEWORK AND INDUSTRY INITIATIVES TO LAUNCH OPEN AND DISAGGREGATED SOLUTIONS FOR WI-FI Policy enablers Supply chain activity Deployment and provision TRAI DoT Core solution providers March 2021: 1st PM-WANI model village announced in Haryana with App providers TIP OpenWiFi solutions PM-WANI framework Management ecosystem - Public data offices June 2021: (e.g. TIP OpenWiFi) - Public data office aggregators 2nd PM-WANI model village - App providers announced in Karnataka AP hardware providers with TIP OpenWiFi solutions - Central registry (ODMs & OEMs) CASE STUDY: OPEN RAN IS EXPECTED TO SEE ACCELERATED ADOPTION IN INDIA COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES, AND COULD GENERATE SIGNIFICANT GDP GAINS OVER THE NEXT DECADE Level of success of the Open RAN ecosystem driven by industry, policy makers and initiatives like TIP 39 per annum 18 GDP impact ) 6 per(2030) annum (2030) Low point of Main estimate High point of estimate range for India case estimate range 129 (2020 prices 58 Cumulative 19 GDP impact–30) (2021–30) USD billion Low point of Main estimate High point of estimate range for India case estimate range Main India scenario estimate Impact of greater mobile internet penetration on GDP Impact of increased mobile data usage on