May 2021 Buffalo-Niagara Regional Freight Plan Update to 2010 Niagara Frontier Urban Area Freight Transportation Study Buffalo-Niagara Regional Freight Plan TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Status of 2010 Niagara Frontier Urban Area Freight Transportation Study Transportation Improvements Projects .. 5 1.1 Recommendations Completed or Underway ........................................................................................................... 5 International Trade Gateway Organization .................................................................................................................... 5 Peace Bridge Expansion .................................................................................................................................................. 6 U.S. Route 219 ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Buffalo Logistics Complex ............................................................................................................................................... 6 Portageville Bridge Replacement ................................................................................................................................... 6 New York State Thruway Cashless Tolling ...................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Recommendations Not Completed .......................................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Other Recommendations ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Bethlehem Steel Site Improvements .............................................................................................................................. 8 Lewiston-Queenston Bridge U.S. Customs Plaza Improvements ................................................................................... 8 I-90 Improvements ......................................................................................................................................................... 8 Western New York Regional Economic Development Council ....................................................................................... 8 2 Buffalo-Niagara Regional Freight Plan Value Statement ............................................................................................ 9 3 Freight Stakeholder Outreach and Engagement ...................................................................................................... 10 4 Regional Freight Activity .......................................................................................................................................... 15 4.1 Bottleneck Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 16 2010 Freight Study........................................................................................................................................................ 16 Bottleneck Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 16 4.2 Safety ...................................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.3 Buffalo-Niagara Region Economy ........................................................................................................................... 23 4.4 Highway Volumes ................................................................................................................................................... 37 4.5 Cross-Border Freight Volume ................................................................................................................................. 39 4.6 Air Cargo ................................................................................................................................................................. 42 4.7 Waterborne Freight ................................................................................................................................................ 43 4.8 COVID-19 Impacts and Trends ................................................................................................................................ 45 4.9 Suez Canal Disruption ............................................................................................................................................. 45 5 Recommended Strategies and Projects ................................................................................................................... 46 5.1 New Strategies and Recommendations Identified in This Plan .............................................................................. 47 Infrastructure Project Recommendations .................................................................................................................... 52 Freight Planning and Policy Recommendations .......................................................................................................... 104 Appendices .................................................................................................................................................................... 158 A Project Priority and Cost Estimates ........................................................................................................................1 59 B Tech Memo 1, Regional Freight and Logistics Status ............................................................................................. 171 C Tech Memo 2, Regional Freight Flow Analysis ....................................................................................................... 248 D Tech Memo 3, Regional SWOT and Gap Analysis ................................................................................................... 334 1 | P a g e Buffalo-Niagara Regional Freight Plan TABLE OF FIGURES & TABLES FIGURE 3-1 CHARACTERISTICS MOST BENEFICIAL TO BUSINESS ............................................................................................. 10 FIGURE 3-2 CHALLENGES IMPACTING BUSINESS ..................................................................................................................... 11 FIGURE 3-3 SURVEY RESPONSE, RATING OF FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM ................................................................. 11 FIGURE 3-4 SURVEY RESPONSE, RANKING OF FACTORS BELIEVED TO IMPACT NEAR-TERM SUCCESS OF FREIGHT ............... 12 FIGURE 3-5 SURVEY RESPONSE, IMPROVING FREIGHT LOGISTICS SYSTEM............................................................................. 12 FIGURE 3-6 SURVEY RESPONSE, ESTIMATING THE FUTURE OF FREIGHT ECONOMY .............................................................. 13 FIGURE 3-7 SURVEY RESPONSE, DEFINING BOTTLENECK ........................................................................................................ 13 FIGURE 3-8 SURVEY RESPONSE, FREIGHT FACTORS OF IMPORTANCE .................................................................................... 14 FIGURE 4-1 FREIGHT ACTIVITY IN THE BUFFALO-NIAGARA REGION ........................................................................................ 15 FIGURE 4-2 RECURRING CONGESTION IN THE BUFFALO-NIAGARA REGION ........................................................................... 17 FIGURE 4-3 NON-RECURRING CONGESTION IN THE BUFFALO-NIAGARA REGION .................................................................. 18 FIGURE 4-4 NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS IN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES ................................................................................. 20 FIGURE 4-5 NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS BY SEVERITY IN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES ............................................................ 20 FIGURE 4-6 NUMBER OF FREIGHT-RELATED ACCIDENTS IN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES ................................................... 21 FIGURE 4-7 NUMBER OF FREIGHT-RELATED ACCIDENTS BY SEVERITY IN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES .............................. 21 FIGURE 4-8 BUFFALO-NIAGARA REGION FORECASTED GROWTH IN REGIONAL TONNAGE .................................................... 24 FIGURE 4-9 MODE SHARE OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC: BUFFALO-NIAGARA REGION ...................................................................... 28 FIGURE 4-10 FORECASTED MODE SHARE OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC: BUFFALO-NIAGARA REGION ............................................... 29 FIGURE 4-11 EXPECTED GDP GROWTH IN REGION .................................................................................................................. 30 FIGURE 4-12 CHANGE IN COMPOSITION OF ECONOMY .......................................................................................................... 30 FIGURE 4-13 THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC FLOW OF GOODS IN THE BUFFALO-NIAGARA REGION ECONOMY, 2045 ............. 31 FIGURE 4-14 TRENDS IN SPLIT OF INBOUND CARGO ............................................................................................................... 33 FIGURE 4-15 FORECASTED INTERNATIONAL SOURCES OF INBOUND SHIPMENTS (IMPORTS)...............................................