1 LUCKY PEOPLE FORECAST1 – A SYSTEMIC FUTURES PERSPECTIVE ON FASHION AND SUSTAINABILITY MATHILDA THAM Thesis submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy, Design Department, Goldsmiths, University of London, 2008. 1 Lucky People are people in touch, well connected, tuned in, excellent at going with the flow, manoeuvring through time and space. Lucky People combine experience and rational thinking with intuition and emotional skills. Fashion designers are Lucky People in many senses. We are in tune and able to use this in-tuneness to create concepts, images and products that move other people. We are lucky because we have a highly stimulating and rewarding profession that gives us the opportunity to travel around the world, meet interesting people and get paid for it. We are lucky because we have had the financial and social opportunity to choose and train for this profession. And we are extremely lucky because we have, from within the context of fashion, the power to make important changes that can reach far beyond a season’s collection or the life time of a magazine, into a time where other designers carry on with our work and enjoy a more sustainable life. Trend-forecasters share all these opportunities. Lucky People Forecast is the story about trend-forecasters’ and fashion designers’ journey towards more sustainable futures. © Mathilda Tham 2008 [email protected] 2 I hereby declare that the work submitted in this thesis is my own. Mathilda Tham, 12 December, 2008, London © Mathilda Tham 2008 [email protected] 3 ABSTRACT The detrimental environmental effects associated with fashion production and consumption are increasingly recognised, and strategies in place. However, these are production-focused, top-down strategies, which do not reach where the impact is highest - the user phase, or where the scope for improvement is utmost - the design phase. A growing body of academic research, and a niche representation of practitioners have responded by developing lifecycle and whole systems approaches. This PhD thesis seeks to expand on and bring this knowledge to the unexplored domain of the highest impact – the fashion industry’s mass- market segment. Trend-forecasting is integral to the fashion design process, and supports the organisation’s commercial endeavours. This thesis explores the potential of trend-forecasting as a positive agent of change for environmental improvement at systemic level in the fashion industry’s mass-market segment. The first empirical study, Stage 1, is diagnostic and exploratory, mapping the interactions that currently exist between trend-forecasting, fashion design and environmental work. The findings and emergent theories formed the basis for a novel methodology compatible with trend-forecasting methods, processes in fashion design, and the inclusive and transformative processes implicit in sustainability. Stage 2 applies this methodology in an experimental study - a series of creative workshops with mixed fashion industry stakeholder groups in the UK and Sweden. Set in 2026, the workshops explore how the underlying proposition “what if fashion and sustainability were compatible or even synergistic?” could affect attitudinal change, and what its generative potential could be. The study shows that a richer knowledge ecology can foster proactive discussions in the realm of sustainability and fashion. It also reveals how a futures perspective and creative approach can unleash the application of fashion professionals’ skills at strategic and systemic levels. The research resulted in recommendations for the application of the new trend-forecasting methodology on a larger scale. © Mathilda Tham 2008 [email protected] 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS THANK YOU: All participants - for your generosity, wisdom, time and patience. Beckmans College of Design and 115 Bartholomew Road - for use of beautiful and creative spaces. My supervisors: Professor Richard Kimbell – for constantly encouraging me to ‘press on’ and endless structural wisdoms. Dr Kate Fletcher – who has provided me and many other researchers with a firm holistic fashion-environmental ground. Professor John Wood – for giving me, and other MA Design Futures students “a license to dream.” The M21 team - Anette Lundebye, Hannah Jones, John Backwell, Julia Lockheart and Jonny Bradley for enlightening moments of synergy, and Ann Schlachter – for keeping all of us on the road and in good humour. Toni Spencer – for introducing me to her “politics of wonder.” Duncan Kramer – for letting the woods grow, incessant support and healthy resistance to models. Jan Haug – for, with his wry sense of humour, reminding me that a hat is just a hat. This is for my mothers: Grandmother Pums for encouraging me to create my own fashion and for her uniquely creative attitude; grandmother Lullu for her firm belief that all things go to victory, and for many driving lessons on her old Elna sewing machine; and my mother Carola, for her always-inspiring courage and positive outlook. © Mathilda Tham 2008 [email protected] 5 CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION – How can trend-forecasters be helpful friends to fashion 22 designers on their shared journey towards sustainability? 1.1 Introduction – an imaginary journey 22 1.1.1 Sustainability 22 1.1.2 Fashion 23 1.1.3 Trend-forecasting 24 1.2 Context and relevance statements 25 1.2.1 Relevance outwards – the sustainability imperative 25 1.2.1.2 The design imperative 27 1.2.1.4 Fashion and the environment 28 1.2.2 Relevance inwards - the researcher’s background and stance 30 1.3 Scope and focus of the research 31 1.4 Research aims and objectives 33 1.5 Overview of thesis 33 2. FRAMEWORKS FOR FASHION: SUSTAINABILITY 36 2.1 A brief history of sustainable fashion 36 2.1.1 Early social concerns in dress 36 2.1.2 Eco-style 37 2.1.3 The new wave 38 2.2 Fashion’s socio-environmental effects 39 2.2.1 Environmental issues associated with fashion 39 2.2.1.1 The complexity of fashion production, and appropriateness 40 of strategies’ target 2.2.1.2 The speed and scale of the fashion industry 41 2.2.1.3 The difference between fashion and clothing 42 2.2.1.4 Lifetimes project 43 2.2.1.5 Systemic approaches to environmental improvement 44 2.2.2 Social issues associated with fashion 45 2.2.3 The triple bottom line – trade offs in the fashion system 46 2.3 Strategies for environmental improvement in the fashion industry 47 2.3.1 Product level strategies – reduce, reuse, recycle 48 2.3.2 Systems level strategies – reframe 49 2.4 Drivers for more sustainable fashion 52 2.4.1 Organisation of environmental and social concerns in the fashion industry 52 2.4.1.1 Code of Conduct 53 2.4.1.2 Eco-labelling 54 2.4.2 Hard and soft drivers for more sustainable fashion 55 © Mathilda Tham 2008 [email protected] 6 3. FRAMEWORKS FOR FASHION: UNSUSTAINABILITY 60 3.1 An ecological perspective on unsustainability 60 3.1.1 Natural science 60 3.1.2 Human-nature engagement 61 3.1.3 Nature and time 62 3.2 A user perspective on unsustainability 6 3 3.2.1 Mechanisms behind consumption 63 3.2.2 Fashion consumption 63 3.2.3 A philosophy of object-user relations 64 3.3 A producer perspective on unsustainability 66 3.3.1 Speed and scale 66 3.3.2 Designed obsolescence 68 3.3.3 A surrogate society 69 3.4 An economic perspective on unsustainability 69 3.4.1 A symbolic economy 69 3.4.2 Growth 70 3.4.3 Prosperity and well-being 71 3.4.4 The rich poor divide 71 3.5 Value systems and unsustainability 72 3.5.1 An ethical imperative 72 3.5.2 Ethics of ‘don’ts’ and ‘dos’ 73 3.5.3 Value systems for design and sustainability 74 3.6 Alienation 75 3.7 Two frameworks for fashion: sustainability and unsustainability 77 3.7.1 Problem formulation and target area 77 3.7.2 Implications of fashion’s journey from unsustainability to sustainability 79 3.7.3 Towards a soft driver for sustainable fashion 81 4. MAPPING FASHION, TREND-FORECASTING AND SUSTAINABILITY – 84 What is the scope for trend-forecasting as a driver for environmental improvement in the fashion industry? 4.1 Introduction 84 4.1.2 The scope of the study 84 4.1.3 Research aims and questions 85 4.2 Methodological concerns 86 4.2.1 Study format 86 4.2.2 The case study as a research methodology 86 4.2.3 The profile of this case study 87 4.2.4 Interviews as a research methodology 88 4.2.5 Types of interviews 88 4.2.6 The interview format and procedure of this study 89 © Mathilda Tham 2008 [email protected] 7 4.2.7 Sensitive information 90 4.2.8 Personal value position 90 4.2.9 The focus of the case study and the interviews 91 4.3 Sample 91 4.3.1 Profile of H&M case study 92 4.3.2 Pilot case study with IKEA 92 4.3.3 Interviews with designers about commercially available trend-forecasting 93 services 4.3.4 Trend-forecasting methodology and attitudes to environmental issues 93 4.3.5 Ethical considerations 93 4.3.6 Changes in the study 94 4.4. Conducting the study - some practical considerations 94 4.4.1 Time and access 94 4.4.2 Notes on transcripts and translation 94 4.4.3 Analysis of the study and organisation of data 95 4.5 Presenting the data 96 4.5.1 Vignette 96 4.5.2 Understanding the background 97 4.5.2.1 What are the characteristics in terms of educational background 97 and career of individuals working in the fashion industry 4.5.2.2 What is the make-up of a high street fashion company, in terms 98 of organisation, company profile and culture? 4.5.3 Understanding the process 99 4.5.3.1 What does the process look like in a fashion company with a high 99 street audience? 4.5.3.1.1 The design process at H&M 99 4.5.3.1.2 The design process across the