Grain prices and food crises in 14th century Flemish cities (1280-1370) STEF ESPEEL ESSHC BELFAST – SESSION SHOCK CITIES (6 APRIL 2018) Introduction Overview: • Introduction • Shock Cities • Character different case-studies • Sources • Long term price movements • 1280-1370 • General course • Short term price movements • Focus on price peaks • Concluding remarks 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Introduction • Vulnerability 14th century Flemish cities – no demographic decline? • FAD vs. FED -> Co-production of food crises • Malthusian Null-Hypothesis • Focus: chronology of the price peaks and food crises 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Shock Cities • H.L. Platt, Shock Cities (2005). • Flemish cities • Extremely rapid growth & structural transformation (12th – 13th century) • Potential vulnerability towards food shocks • Bruges – Ghent – Lille – Douai – Cambrai Cambrai Source: Wikimedia Commons 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Shock Cities • Character of hinterland • Peasant agriculture vs. agrarian specialisation • Degree of political power • Inclusive regimes vs. patrician autocracy • Political autonomy vs. territorial lords • Connection to international markets • International gateway vs. regional distribution 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Sources • Representative sample for the general population • Account series • Caritative institutions: hospitals in particular • Collegial church chapters • Abbeys 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Sources – institutions • Bruges • Lille • Hospital Saint-John • Hospital Saint-Sauveur • Hospital Our Lady ter Potterie • Chapter Saint-Peter • Chapter Saint-Donatian • Douai • Memorial Simon de Rikelike • Chapter Saint-Amé • Ghent • Abbey des Prés • Chapter Saint-Nicolas • Hospital Wetz • Chapter Saint-Veerle • Cambrai • Chapter Our-Lady-Saint-Peter • Metropolitan Chapter of Our Lady • Abbey Saint-Peter • Chapters Saint-Croix & Saint-Géry • Abbey Saint-Bavo • Hospital Saint-Julian • Abbey Saint-Sépulchre 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Long term price movements • Differences in measures and coinage systems • All prices in: d.gr. (vl./torn.) / hectolitres • Long term inflation not excluded • Comparing wheat prices • Insufficient data for all the other grain types • Main bread cereal • Other grain types usually followed this trend 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Wheat price in Flemish cities, 1280-1375 (d.gr./hl.) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Wheat price in Flemish cities, 1349-1375 (gr.silver/hl.) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1349 1350 1351 1352 1353 1354 1355 1356 1357 1358 1359 1360 1361 1362 1363 1364 1365 1366 1367 1368 1369 1370 1371 1372 1373 1374 1375 Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Average relative differences • First glance: same course of the five series • Comparing the series: rows compared to columns • Results (%): Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Bruges 100,00 Ghent -26,75 100,00 Lille -19,83 4,09 100,00 Douai -37,02 -12,07 -15,46 100,00 Cambrai -74,32 -39,55 -50,35 -29,56 100,00 • Bruges highest overall (26,8% on Ghent and 19,8% on Lille etc.) • Ghent and Lille followed closely, in favour for Lille (4,1% higher than Ghent) • Douai lower and Cambrai lowest 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Correlation coefficient • Parallel course of wheat price series • In what degree are series correlated to each other? Doesn’t imply a causal relation! • Results: Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Bruges 1 Ghent 0,926718 1 Lille 0,916245 0,924648 1 Douai 0,828163 0,863255 0,923455 1 Cambrai 0,813699 0,841455 0,894194 0,870104 1 • Category ]0,9 – ]1: • Bruges – Ghent; Bruges – Lille; Ghent – Lille; Lille – Douai • All relations above 0,81 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Short term price movements • Also only wheat prices -> most detailed • Selection of price peak periods • Methodology: including all institutions of all cities -> regional food shocks • 1. Average price of harvest years • A. From monthly means • B. From annual means • 2. Relative price difference compared to previous 5 years • A. From the average price of harvest years derived from monthly means • B. From the average price of harvest years derived from annual means • 3. Limit value: price raise of 30% for a minor shock, 50% for a major shock • Before 1349: calculations with d.gr./hl.; After 1349: calculation with gr.silver/hl. 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Periods of price peaks • 8 peak periods throughout the whole period: • 1292-93 • 1302-04 • 1314-16 • 1321-23 • 1328-30 • 1339-43 • 1348-52 • 1356-61 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Periods of price peaks • 1292-93 • +35,10% • 1302-04 • +54,35% and +43,07% • Franco-Flemish War (1297-1305) • Battle of the Golden spurs (11 July 1302) • 1305: Athis-sur-Orge: Lille/Douai/Orchies to French kingdom -> Peaks based on small amount of data 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Periods of price peaks • 1314-16 • +145,94% and +119,8% (highest in 14th century) • The Great Famine • actually 1315-17, but skewered because of the yearly averages & starting/ending date of the accounts • Back to back harvest failures because of heavy rainfall • Only data for Bruges (Saint-John) and Douai (Saint-Amé) • Bruges hit harder? Staple right Douai? Or just because trading character of Bruges? 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Periods of price peaks • 1321-1323 • +30,67 and +31,3% (based on annual means) • Beginning of Peasants Revolt in coastal Flanders? Heavy taxation of the count • Weather anomalies? • 1328-1330 • +57,04% and +75,63% (based on monthly means) • End of Peasants Revolt in coastal Flanders: battle of Cassel (August 1328) • Repression by the count? • Weather anomalies? 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion 1339-1343 Harvest year Monthly avg. Rel. diff. With previous Annual avg. Ref. diff. With previous 5 years (monthly avg.) 5 years (annual avg.) 1339-1340 16,28 99,94 12,68 47,64 1340-1341 11,80 18,79 13,17 39,66 1341-1342 16,57 55,55 17,46 70,76 1342-1343 16,11 33,04 15,80 31,14 • Hundred Years’ War • England vs. France -> strategic importance of Walloon Flanders • 1339: Siege of Cambrai • 1340: Battle of Sluys • Bruges/Ghent: anglophile ‘Artevelde-regime’ 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion 1339-1343 30 45 40 25 35 30 20 25 15 20 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 1338 1339 1340 1341 1342 1343 1344 1345 1346 Ghent (S.-Nicolas) Lille (S.-Sauveur) Douai (S.-Amé) Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Douai (Wetz) Douai (Des Prés) Cambrai (N.-Dame) 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion 1348-1352 Harvest year Monthly avg. Rel. diff. With previous Annual avg. Ref. diff. With previous 5 years (monthly avg.) 5 years (annual avg.) 1348-1349 24,09385 32,81845 32,84775 48,6124 1349-1350 36,47108 95,42338 31,98997 33,59472 1350-1351 29,91723 32,35477 35,30831 31,10745 1351-1352 41,36436 62,29095 36,44491 20,49589 • Black Death • Crimea (1347) -> Italy -> northwestern-Europe (1348) • Fleas on rats & humans • Coin revaluations • 1350, 1352 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion 1348-1352 60 70 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1348 1349 1350 1351 1352 1353 1354 Bruges (S.-Donatian) Lille (S.-Sauveur) Douai (S.-Amé) Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Douai (Wetz) Cambrai (N.-Dame) Cambrai (S.-Julian) 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion 1356-1361 Harvest year Monthly avg. Rel. diff. With previous Annual avg. Ref. diff. With previous 5 years (monthly avg.) 5 years (annual avg.) 1356-1357 27,60547 11,07297 35,30459 35,60327 1357-1358 35,26615 59,56325 37,24418 44,31733 1358-1359 32,6073 32,72297 36,33576 27,45025 1359-1360 44,35202 59,8908 48,74584 53,12352 1360-1361 58,9931 77,74848 45,02639 21,25596 • 1360: Return of the plague (1360-61) • Blockmans: more severe than Black Death! 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion 1356-1361 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 10 20 0 10 0 Bruges (S.-Donatian) Lille (S.-Sauveur) Douai (S.-Amé) 1356 1357 1358 1359 1360 1361 Douai (Wetz) Douai (Des Prés) Cambrai (N.-Dame) Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Cambrai (S.-Julian) 1. Introduction | 2. Shock Cities | 3. Long term price movements | 4. Short term price movements | 5. Conclusion Quod 1369-71? Harvest year Monthly avg.