National Security Policy Complexity: An Analysis of U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Program Effects on Political Terror Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Rudolph L. Hightower, II, M.A. Graduate Program in Public Policy and Management The Ohio State University 2017 Dissertation Committee: Trevor L. Brown, PhD, Advisor Anand Desai, PhD Jos C.N. Raadschelders, PhD 1 Copyright by Rudolph L. Hightower, II 2017 2 Abstract This dissertation examined whether participation in US Defense Security Cooperation (DSC) programs leads to reductions in a regime’s willingness to inflict political terror such as extrajudicial killing, torture, disappearances, and political imprisonment. Two objectives framed the research: first, to identify structural factors that give rise to political terror, and second, to assess the efficacy of non-kinetic US intervention policies in allied nations. Though DSC programs are widely studied, the programs have been primarily evaluated in output terms such as dollars (Foreign Military Sales), the number of foreign officers trained (International Military Education and Training), and the number and cost of engagement events (National Guard State Partnership Program; SPP). To advance knowledge on DSC programs in outcome terms, this research started by recreating the key components of Poe and Tate (1990, 1994) causal frameworks on personal integrity rights. The initial objectives were to confirm or refute predictor variable results and to determine if the Poe and Tate-derived Political Terror Scale (PTS) was an appropriate measure to evaluate the efficaciousness of DSC programs. Next, the research expanded to include both a 167-country global time-sensitive cross-sectional (TSCS) analysis and a 46-country regional TSCS analysis using the US Geographic Combatant Commander Areas of Responsibilities (AORs) as its country-by- country delineation. Data collection began by creating the Rebuilding Failed and Weak iii States Dataset (RFWS Dataset) which included extensive data on a myriad of variables theorized to influence political terror. The RFWS Dataset covered 20 years from 1993- 2012 plus four years 1989-1992 for variable lag effects. The PTS and the Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index (FSI) were the dependent variables since they represent globally respected indices of political terror and human rights abuses. Results validated the extant literature’s conclusions that the three structural factor variables 1) levels of democratization, 2) economic growth, and 3) recent civil and international war experiences continue to be the most reliable political terror predictors. Results from 12 regression models also showed DSC program influence as consistently weak, and at best, inconsistently statistically significant. Though senior US leaders frequently boast of DSC program intervention successes, this research found no consistent empirical evidence to support their positive pronouncements. Effective and efficient delivery of DSC intervention outputs do not necessarily correspond to similarly effective and efficient political terror outcomes. Also included was an exploratory review of over 400 SPP program archives. System Dynamics non-linear modeling and simulation techniques was used to create a conceptual model that illustrated the adaptive capacity of a State Partnership Program. Results further showed that there is a strong possibility that investments in training foreign military officers may lead to the desirable effect of a lower likelihood of political terror. The dissertation’s overarching recommendation is that senior US leaders need significantly more data collection on the specific nature of various DSC programs. Armed with new, robust datasets, DSC programs can be analyzed, evaluated, and iv improved not solely based on easily quantifiable outputs, but rather, based on verifiable outcomes that influence the democracy-strengthening behavioral outcomes of our partner nations. v Dedication Dedicated to my late father Rudolph L. Hightower, Sr., who taught me the most important lesson of my life, how to be a good father… …and to four brave young Americans killed serving in a Defense Security Cooperation operation: vi Acknowledgments Trevor Brown, PhD Anand Desai, PhD Jos C. Raadschelders, PhD Charles Wise, PhD My research partner and great friend Mykola Kyrychenko “General” Julie Frary, Carol Norton, Gina Gest, Andrea Gallager, Laura Sipe, Shadia Jallaq, Brittany Miller, and “Sir” Hank Wilson Kickboxing Grandmaster and Martial Arts Hall of Famer Eddie Mapula My friends indeed: Andy Heath and Tyler Winslow My wonderful research assistants Cara M. Clark and Helen K. Sudhoff Ashley Bowman My fantastic children: Morris, Rudy III, Harvey, Marilyn, Sarah, and Tatiana The fantastic staff at Crimson Cup Coffee and Tea, Upper Arlington, Ohio The Greatest Neighbors EVER, Clarke and Sally My lifesavers Michelle Rupp and the Junior Explorers Club The Standing Conference Table at the John Glenn College of Public Affairs vii Vita June 1979 ……………………………………... San Fernando High School December, 1989 ………………………………..B.S. Vocational Education, Southern Illinois University April, 1997 ……………………………..…..… M.A. National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School September, 1997 ………………………………Certified Spanish Linguist, Defense Language Institute December 2009 ………………………………. A.A. Graphic Design, Art Institute of Pittsburgh 2009 to present ……………………………….. Graduate Teaching Associate, John Glenn College of Public Affairs, The Ohio State University viii Publications Hightower R. L., 1997. Oceanic sovereignty and the law of the sea: fishery-based conflicts. Calhoun, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA. Hightower R. L., 2012. Iterative Storytelling in Public Policy: A Systems Thinking Approach. In: Desai A. (eds) Simulation for Policy Inquiry. Springer, New York, NY. Hightower, R. 2014. The Declarations of Independence: the Moldova-Pridnestrovie Conflict, in Understanding Complex Military Operations: A Case Study Approach, Karen Guttieri, Volker Franke, and Melanie Civic, editors. Routledge, London, UK. Fields of Study Major Field: Graduate Program in Public Policy and Management ix Table of Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................. iii Dedication ……………..................................................................................................... vi Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. vi Vita ................................................................................................................................... viii Publications and Figures ................................................................................................... ix List of Tables .................................................................................................................... xii List of Figures .................................................................................................................. xiii Chapter 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 Political Terror and Human Rights Abuse ...................................................................... 3 Theory and Research Design ........................................................................................ 21 Chapter 2. Reducing the Likelihood of Political Terror – Theory/Literature Review ...... 30 Integrated Framework Explaining the Likelihood of Political Terror: Summary ........ 32 Integrated Framework Explaining the Likelihood of Political Terror: Factors ............ 36 Chapter 3. Data and Methods............................................................................................ 69 Global Analysis of DSC Programs ............................................................................... 71 Regional Analysis of DSC Programs ............................................................................ 71 Methodology ………………………………………………………………………... 75 Chapter 4. Findings ........................................................................................................... 95 Models………………………………………………………………………………..102 Variable-by-Variable Findings ................................................................................... 130 Summary of Models .................................................................................................... 132 Chapter 5: Conclusions ................................................................................................... 134 National Security Complexity ………………………………………………...…… 135 Expectations versus Discovery .................................................................................. 144 Implications for Future US National Security Policy Research ................................. 147 Case Review Summary .......................................................................................... 159 Adaptive Capacity in Public Organizations ........................................................... 161 Research Limitations .................................................................................................. 171 Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 172 References ......................................................................................................................