Baltic Energy Technology Scenarios 2018 Baltic Energy Technology Scenarios 2018 Tomi J. Lindroos, Antti Lehtilä and Tiina Koljonen (VTT team). Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, János Hethey, Nina Dupont and Aisma Vītiņa (Ea Energy Analyses team). TemaNord 2018:515 Baltic Energy Technology Scenarios 2018 Tomi J. Lindroos, Antti Lehtilä and Tiina Koljonen (VTT team). Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, János Hethey, Nina Dupont and Aisma Vītiņa (Ea Energy Analyses team). ISBN 978-92-893-5457-8 (PRINT) ISBN 978-92-893-5458-5 (PDF) ISBN 978-92-893-5459-2 (EPUB) http://dx.doi.org/10.6027/TN2018-515 TemaNord 2018:515 ISSN 0908-6692 Standard: PDF/UA-1 ISO 14289-1 © Nordic Council of Ministers 2018 Cover photo: Tautvydas Lapūnas Photo: p 19/MKstudio; p 30/Capitanoseye; p 48/Egert; p 82/Alex Tihonovs; p 110/A. Aleksandraviciuss Print: Rosendahls Printed in Denmark Disclaimer This publication was funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the Nordic Council of Ministers’ views, opinions, attitudes or recommendations. Rights and permissions This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. Translations: If you translate this work, please include the following disclaimer: This translation was not pro- duced by the Nordic Council of Ministers and should not be construed as official. The Nordic Council of Ministers cannot be held responsible for the translation or any errors in it. Adaptations: If you adapt this work, please include the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by the Nordic Council of Ministers. Responsibility for the views and opinions expressed in the adaptation rests solely with its author(s). The views and opinions in this adaptation have not been approved by the Nordic Council of Ministers. Third-party content: The Nordic Council of Ministers does not necessarily own every single part of this work. The Nordic Council of Ministers cannot, therefore, guarantee that the reuse of third-party content does not in- fringe the copyright of the third party. If you wish to reuse any third-party content, you bear the risks associ- ated with any such rights violations. You are responsible for determining whether there is a need to obtain per- mission for the use of third-party content, and if so, for obtaining the relevant permission from the copyright holder. Examples of third-party content may include, but are not limited to, tables, figures or images. Photo rights (further permission required for reuse): Any queries regarding rights and licences should be addressed to: Nordic Council of Ministers/Publication Unit Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K Denmark Phone +45 3396 0200 [email protected] Nordic co-operation Nordic co-operation is one of the world’s most extensive forms of regional collaboration, involving Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland. Nordic co-operation has firm traditions in politics, economics and culture and plays an important role in European and international forums. The Nordic community strives for a strong Nordic Region in a strong Europe. Nordic co-operation promotes regional interests and values in a global world. The values shared by the Nordic countries help make the region one of the most innovative and competitive in the world. The Nordic Council of Ministers Nordens Hus Ved Stranden 18 DK-1061 Copenhagen K, Denmark Tel.: +45 3396 0200 www.norden.org Download Nordic publications at www.norden.org/nordpub Contents Foreword .................................................................................................................................. 9 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. 11 Glossary .................................................................................................................................. 13 Executive summary ................................................................................................................. 17 Key findings....................................................................................................................... 17 Opportunities and threats .................................................................................................. 18 1. Modelling Baltic energy choices in a global world .............................................................. 29 1.1 Key Findings .......................................................................................................... 29 1.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................30 1.3 The Baltic countries ................................................................................................30 1.4 The Baltic countries’ energy systems today ............................................................. 33 1.5 Regional cooperation ..............................................................................................38 1.6 The EU’s 2030 climate and energy framework ........................................................ 40 1.7 Baltic energy and climate strategies for 2030 ......................................................... 42 1.8 The scenario and modelling framework .................................................................. 44 2. Growing demands, increasing efficiency, and electrification .............................................. 47 2.1 Key Findings ........................................................................................................... 47 2.2 Opportunities and threats ...................................................................................... 48 2.3 Transport ............................................................................................................... 48 2.4 Buildings ................................................................................................................ 59 2.5 Industry ................................................................................................................. 64 2.6 Other sectors ......................................................................................................... 68 2.7 Electricity consumption increasing due to assumed growth and electrification ........ 76 3. Towards renewable and low-carbon electricity and district heating .................................... 81 3.1 Key findings ............................................................................................................ 81 3.2 Opportunities and threats ...................................................................................... 82 3.3 Current situation .................................................................................................... 82 3.4 Electricity system outlook ...................................................................................... 84 3.5 The Baltic system ....................................................................................................93 4. Progressing towards low-carbon and renewable energy systems ..................................... 109 4.1 Key Findings ......................................................................................................... 109 4.2 Opportunities and threats ..................................................................................... 110 4.3 GHG emissions...................................................................................................... 110 4.4 Renewable energy ................................................................................................ 115 4.5 Energy consumption ............................................................................................. 118 4.6 Security of supply ................................................................................................. 120 4.7 Additional cost of the BPO and the 2DS ................................................................ 125 4.8 Key uncertainties .................................................................................................. 128 4.9 Things to improve in further studies ...................................................................... 130 References ............................................................................................................................ 133 Sammendrag ........................................................................................................................ 139 Annex I. TIMES-VTT model ................................................................................................... 141 Annex II. Balmorel model ...................................................................................................... 143 II.1. Overview .................................................................................................................. 143 II.2. General assumptions ................................................................................................ 145 II.3.Scenario description .................................................................................................. 155 Annex III. Energy system modelling in Estonia ........................................................................157 References ...................................................................................................................... 160 Annex IV. Energy system