South Thanet Constituency Poll Methodology South Thanet Constituency Study Page 4 Prepared on behalf of Alan Bown 23 Apr 2015 Table 1 Q1. Normal weightings Q1. Could I confirm that you live in the ward of [Y]? Base: All Respondents Total Gender Age 2010 Vote Voting Intention Ward Group Did Not West East Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ CON LAB LD UKIP OTHER CON LAB LD UKIP OTHER Undecided Cliftonville Broadstairs Sandwich Vote Ramsgate Ramsgate Unweighted Total 1057 521 536 229 330 498 298 218 71 53 3 244 220 186 14 292 21 160 160 266 202 217 212 Weighted Total 1057 497 560 245 342 469 293 213 71 51 3 255 220 188 14 288 21 159 194 255 173 226 208 Little Stour and Ashstone 57 22 35 6 24 27 18 9 4 1 - 13 19 7 2 13 - 10 - - - - 57 5.4% 4.4% 6.3% 2.6% 7.0% 5.7% 6.1% 4.1% 5.5% 1.9% - 5.2% 8.4% 3.8% 14.6% 4.6% - 6.2% - - - - 27.5% Sandwich 101 49 52 16 37 49 25 17 10 7 - 22 27 12 3 23 2 16 - - - - 101 9.6% 9.9% 9.3% 6.4% 10.7% 10.5% 8.5% 7.9% 14.0% 12.9% - 8.7% 12.2% 6.3% 20.9% 8.1% 9.8% 9.8% - - - - 48.7% Beacon Road 45 17 28 7 16 22 13 11 3 1 - 8 7 13 - 6 1 9 - 45 - - - 4.3% 3.5% 5.0% 2.9% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 5.4% 4.4% 2.1% - 3.0% 3.1% 6.7% - 2.0% 4.0% 5.6% - 17.8% - - - Bradstowe 52 27 25 11 15 26 20 9 9 1 1 4 14 7 - 15 1 11 - 52 - - - 4.9% 5.4% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 5.5% 7.0% 4.3% 12.6% 2.1% 35.9% 1.6% 6.5% 3.5% - 5.3% 5.0% 7.2% - 20.5% - - - Central Harbour 79 37 42 18 28 33 29 14 2 6 - 17 14 12 2 28 2 7 - - - 79 - 7.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.4% 8.2% 6.9% 9.8% 6.5% 2.8% 12.0% - 6.5% 6.2% 6.5% 13.1% 9.7% 10.5% 4.4% - - - 34.8% - Cliffsend and Pegwell 50 23 27 10 20 19 18 7 1 3 - 12 13 6 1 13 3 6 - - - - 50 4.7% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 5.8% 4.2% 6.2% 3.3% 1.5% 6.0% - 4.8% 5.9% 3.2% 7.9% 4.7% 14.6% 3.8% - - - - 23.8% Cliftonville East 99 46 52 32 24 42 31 14 4 5 - 27 21 17 - 30 1 13 99 - - - - 9.3% 9.3% 9.4% 13.1% 7.1% 9.0% 10.7% 6.5% 5.2% 9.7% - 10.5% 9.7% 9.3% - 10.4% 5.1% 8.0% 50.8% - - - - Eastcliff 82 37 44 22 22 38 11 20 4 7 1 28 8 17 - 29 1 13 - - - 82 - 7.7% 7.5% 7.9% 8.8% 6.3% 8.1% 3.8% 9.4% 6.1% 13.3% 31.3% 11.0% 3.4% 9.1% - 10.1% 5.0% 8.2% - - - 36.1% - Kingsgate 13 9 4 - 5 8 10 - - - - 2 9 - - 2 - - 13 - - - - 1.2% 1.8% 0.6% - 1.4% 1.7% 3.5% - - - - 0.9% 4.3% - - 0.8% - - 6.5% - - - - Nethercourt 41 23 18 12 11 19 13 8 2 1 - 11 5 3 - 16 1 8 - - 41 - - 3.9% 4.7% 3.2% 4.8% 3.1% 4.0% 4.5% 3.8% 2.6% 1.5% - 4.4% 2.1% 1.7% - 5.6% 4.1% 5.0% - - 23.8% - - Newington 58 21 37 22 18 18 8 18 2 5 - 17 5 14 - 15 2 14 - - 58 - - 5.5% 4.3% 6.5% 9.0% 5.3% 3.7% 2.7% 8.6% 2.4% 10.0% - 6.8% 2.4% 7.3% - 5.2% 8.6% 8.8% - - 33.4% - - Northwood 74 30 44 15 26 34 17 22 4 6 - 16 13 18 1 22 2 11 - - 74 - - 7.0% 6.1% 7.9% 5.9% 7.5% 7.3% 5.8% 10.3% 6.0% 11.6% - 6.3% 5.9% 9.5% 6.0% 7.7% 8.5% 6.9% - - 42.9% - - Sir Moses Montefiore 66 36 30 15 15 35 18 15 2 1 - 13 12 11 1 14 1 13 - - - 66 - 6.2% 7.2% 5.4% 6.3% 4.4% 7.5% 6.3% 7.2% 2.8% 2.0% - 4.9% 5.6% 5.9% 7.5% 5.0% 5.5% 8.0% - - - 29.1% - St Peters 81 44 38 17 31 33 26 14 7 5 - 23 24 13 - 20 1 13 - 81 - - - 7.7% 8.8% 6.7% 7.0% 9.1% 7.0% 8.7% 6.7% 9.8% 9.3% - 8.9% 10.8% 6.7% - 6.9% 5.0% 8.1% - 31.9% - - - Viking 76 34 42 16 26 34 21 20 12 2 1 10 16 19 2 19 3 11 - 76 - - - 7.2% 6.8% 7.5% 6.6% 7.7% 7.2% 7.3% 9.4% 17.6% 3.6% 32.8% 3.9% 7.0% 10.0% 12.8% 6.5% 14.2% 6.9% - 29.8% - - - Cliftonville West 83 41 42 26 25 33 13 14 5 1 - 32 15 20 2 21 - 5 83 - - - - 7.9% 8.3% 7.4% 10.5% 7.2% 6.9% 4.6% 6.7% 6.8% 2.1% - 12.7% 6.6% 10.5% 17.2% 7.4% - 3.2% 42.7% - - - - SIGMA 1057 497 560 245 342 469 293 213 71 51 3 255 220 188 14 288 21 159 194 255 173 226 208 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Prepared by Survation on behalf of Alan Bown Page 4 South Thanet Constituency Study Page 5 Prepared on behalf of Alan Bown 23 Apr 2015 Table 2 Q2. Normal weightings Q2. The next general election is now about 2 weeks away. On a scale of 0-10, where 10 is certain, how certain are you to vote in the general election? Base: All Respondents Total Gender Age 2010 Vote Voting Intention Ward Group Did Not West East Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ CON LAB LD UKIP OTHER CON LAB LD UKIP OTHER Undecided Cliftonville Broadstairs Sandwich Vote Ramsgate Ramsgate Unweighted Total 1057 521 536 229 330 498 298 218 71 53 3 244 220 186 14 292 21 160 160 266 202 217 212 Weighted Total 1057 497 560 245 342 469 293 213 71 51 3 255 220 188 14 288 21 159 194 255 173 226 208 10 745 357 388 120 249 376 258 183 59 42 1 95 179 158 8 225 16 99 128 194 112 157 154 70.5% 71.9% 69.2% 49.0% 72.6% 80.2% 88.2% 85.6% 82.9% 81.6% 32.8% 37.3% 81.3% 83.9% 56.3% 78.2% 75.5% 62.3% 65.6% 76.1% 64.8% 69.5% 74.1% 9 33 20 13 14 8 11 8 4 3 3 - 7 5 6 - 13 4 3 4 8 8 10 3 3.2% 4.1% 2.4% 5.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 1.8% 4.1% 5.9% - 2.8% 2.2% 3.3% - 4.4% 19.3% 1.8% 1.9% 3.3% 4.6% 4.6% 1.4% 8 63 30 33 20 21 22 17 8 2 1 1 16 15 9 2 17 - 19 24 12 10 11 7 6.0% 6.1% 5.9% 8.1% 6.2% 4.7% 5.9% 3.8% 2.7% 1.7% 35.9% 6.4% 6.7% 4.7% 14.4% 5.9% - 11.8% 12.5% 4.5% 5.6% 4.8% 3.3% 7 32 15 18 10 14 8 4 3 1 1 - 20 11 3 - 12 - 7 7 6 9 5 5 3.1% 3.0% 3.2% 4.3% 4.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.9% - 8.0% 5.0% 1.7% - 4.0% - 4.2% 3.8% 2.3% 5.1% 2.3% 2.5% 6 13 5 9 8 2 3 - 1 1 1 - 8 2 2 1 3 - 4 1 3 3 4 1 1.3% 0.9% 1.5% 3.4% 0.6% 0.7% - * 1.7% 1.7% - 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 8.5% 1.1% - 2.4% 0.6% 1.2% 2.0% 2.0% * 5 49 16 33 17 13 19 4 6 2 1 - 25 5 8 2 10 1 23 5 9 11 11 13 4.6% 3.2% 6.0% 7.1% 3.8% 4.0% 1.2% 2.8% 3.1% 1.8% - 9.8% 2.1% 4.2% 13.8% 3.3% 5.2% 14.2% 2.5% 3.5% 6.6% 4.9% 6.1% 4 6 3 4 3 3 - - - 1 - - 4 2 - - 3 - 1 - - 1 4 2 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% - - - 1.4% - - 1.6% 0.9% - - 1.1% - 0.7% - - * 1.6% 0.9% 3 4 2 2 3 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 1 1 * * * 1.2% - * - 0.6% - 1.9% - * * 0.6% 6.9% * - - - * * 0.5% * 2 7 5 2 4 2 1 1 - - - - 3 1 - - 4 - 2 - 3 2 1 1 0.6% 1.0% * 1.6% 0.6% * * - - - - 1.0% * - - 1.4% - 1.2% - 1.1% 1.0% * * 1 4 - 4 1 2 1 - 2 - - - 2 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 1 - 2 * - 0.7% * 0.6% * - 1.0% - - - 0.8% - 0.6% - * - 1.3% - * 0.6% - 1.0% 0 - Would not vote 99 45 54 44 29 27 1 5 2 2 1 73 - - - - - - 25 18 15 21 19 9.4% 9.0% 9.7% 17.8% 8.4% 5.7% * 2.5% 2.9% 3.5% 31.3% 28.6% - - - - - - 13.1% 7.1% 8.7% 9.4% 9.3% SIGMA 1057 497 560 245 342 469 293 213 71 51 3 255 220 188 14 288 21 159 194 255 173 226 208 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Prepared by Survation on behalf of Alan Bown Page 5 South Thanet Constituency Study Page 6 Prepared on behalf of Alan Bown 23 Apr 2015 Table 3 Q3.