SPARE THE AIR• COOL THE CLIMATE A BLUEPRINT FOR CLEAN AIR AND CLIMATE PROTECTION IN THE BAY AREA DRAFT 2017 CLEAN AIR PLAN JANUARY 10, 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE LIST OF FIGURES ..............................................................................................................iv LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................................. v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................... ES/1 The Challenge ......................................................................................................... ES/1 Goals and Objectives .............................................................................................. ES/2 The Vision for 2050 ................................................................................................. ES/2 Pollutants Addressed ............................................................................................... ES/4 The 2017 Control Strategy ...................................................................................... ES/5 What the 2017 Plan Will Accomplish ....................................................................... ES/6 CHAPTER 1 – PURPOSE AND VISION .................................................................1/1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1/1 Goals and Objectives of the 2017 Plan ...................................................................... 1/2 Protecting Impacted Communities and Promoting Social Equity.......................... 1/3 Protecting the Climate .......................................................................................... 1/4 A Vision for 2050 ........................................................................................................ 1/6 Where We Live and Work: Buildings .................................................................... 1/7 How and Where We Travel: Transportation .......................................................... 1/8 What We Produce: Sustainable Production ........................................................ 1/10 What We Consume: Conscientious Consumption .............................................. 1/11 Achieving the Vision ........................................................................................... 1/13 Meeting the Challenge ........................................................................................ 1/13 The Air District’s Role ......................................................................................... 1/15 Key Priorities in the 2017 Control Strategy ............................................................... 1/18 CHAPTER 2 – AIR POLLUTION AND PUBLIC HEALTH .......................................2/1 Linking Air Pollution to Public Health .......................................................................... 2/1 Air Quality Standards and Bay Area Attainment Status .............................................. 2/5 Technical and Analytical Tools .................................................................................... 2/7 Air Quality Monitoring Network ............................................................................. 2/7 Emissions Inventories ......................................................................................... 2/10 Air Quality Modeling ............................................................................................ 2/10 BAY AREA AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRICT | CLEAN AIR PLAN 2017 i TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Multi-Pollutant Evaluation Method ......................................................................2/10 Profiles of Key Pollutants ..........................................................................................2/10 Ozone .................................................................................................................2/10 Particulate Matter ................................................................................................2/15 Toxic Air Contaminants .......................................................................................2/20 Progress in Improving Air Quality and Protecting Public Health ...............................2/22 Progress in Improving Air Quality .......................................................................2/23 Progress in Protecting Public Health ..................................................................2/26 CHAPTER 3 – GrEENHOUSE GASES AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS .........3/1 The Climate is Changing ............................................................................................3/1 Climate Change Impacts on the Bay Area and California ..........................................3/2 Climate Change is Affecting Bay Area Air Quality and Public Health .....................3/7 Climate Change Will Have Non-Air Quality Impacts on Bay Area Public Health ....3/9 Vulnerable Populations Will Be Hit Harder ......................................................... 3/11 Building Bay Area Resilience ..............................................................................3/12 Greenhouse Gases Addressed in this Plan ..............................................................3/12 Global Warming Potential and Atmospheric Lifespan .........................................3/12 The Importance of Reducing Super-GHGs .........................................................3/15 Bay Area GHG Emissions by Source .......................................................................3/16 Historical and Projected Bay Area GHG Emission Trends .......................................3/19 GHG Monitoring Network ....................................................................................3/21 Consumption-Based GHG Emissions Inventory .......................................................3/25 Summary ..................................................................................................................3/29 CHAPTER 4 – PLANNING CONTEXT ...................................................................4/1 Implementation of the 2010 Clean Air Plan ................................................................4/1 Stationary Source Measures ................................................................................4/2 Mobile Sources Measures ....................................................................................4/3 Transportation Control Measures .........................................................................4/4 Land Use and Local Impacts Measures ...............................................................4/4 Energy and Climate Measures .............................................................................4/5 Further Study Measures .......................................................................................4/5 Air District Programs that Provide Foundation for the 2017 Plan ...............................4/6 Protecting Public Health .......................................................................................4/6 Protecting the Climate ........................................................................................4/15 External Policies, Plans and Programs that Complement the 2017 Plan .................4/17 State Policies, Plans and Programs ...................................................................4/17 ii BAY AREA AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRICT | CLEAN AIR PLAN 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) Regional Plans and Programs ............................................................................4/22 Local Plans .........................................................................................................4/25 CHAPTER 5 – CLIMATE AND AIR POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY ...............5/1 Tools and Resources ..................................................................................................5/2 Control Strategy by Economic Sector .........................................................................5/2 Stationary Sources ...............................................................................................5/3 Transportation .......................................................................................................5/9 Energy ................................................................................................................5/14 Buildings .............................................................................................................5/17 Agriculture ...........................................................................................................5/20 Natural and Working Lands ................................................................................5/21 Waste Management ............................................................................................5/22 Water ..................................................................................................................5/24 Super-GHGs .......................................................................................................5/25 Further Study Measures .....................................................................................5/28 What the 2017 Plan will Accomplish .........................................................................5/30 Protecting Public Health .....................................................................................5/30 Protecting the Climate ........................................................................................5/32