1 Climate Change in Central America | Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options Thank you for your interest in this ECLAC publication ECLAC Publications Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorial products and activities. When you register, you may specify your particular areas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. www.cepal.org/en/suscripciones Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options ALICIA BÁRCENA Executive Secretary MARIO CIMOLI Deputy Executive Secretary HUGO EDUARDO BETETA Director ECLAC Subregional Headquarters in Mexico JOSELUIS SAMANIEGO Director Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division LUIS MIGUEL GALINDO Chief of the Climate Change Unit Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division JULIE LENNOX Focal Point of Climate Change and Chief of the Agricultural Development Unit DIANA RAMÍREZ AND JAIME OLIVARES Researchers of the Agricultural Development and Economics of Climate Change Unit ECLAC Subregional Headquarters in Mexico This publication was based on analysis between 2008 and 2015 within the framework of “The Economics of Climate Change in Central America Initiative”, coordinated between the Ministries of Environment, Treasury or Finance, their Ministerial Councils and Executive Secretariats of the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) and the Council of Ministers of Finance/Treasury of Central America and Dominic Republic (COSEFIN), and the Secretariat for Central American Economic Integration (SIECA), as bodies of the Central American Integration System (SICA) and the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters in Mexico; with financial support from UKAID/DFID and DANIDA. The agricultural series was coordinated with the Ministries of Agriculture of SICA, their Ministerial Council (CAC), its Executive Secretariat and Technical Group on Climate Change and Integrated Risk Management (GTCCGIR). The publication on health was prepared with the Ministries of Health, their Ministerial Council (COMISCA), its Executive Secretariat and its Committee of the Technical Commission on Surveillance in Health and Information System (COTEVISI). In addition, it includes analyses prepared by the Climate Change Unit DDSAH ECLAC, and SIECA. Suggested Reference: ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean), CAC (Central American Agricultural Council), COMISCA (Council of Ministers of Health of Central America), CCAD (Central American Commission for Environment and Development), COSEFIN (Council of Ministers of Finance/Treasury of Central America and Dominic Republic), SIECA (Secretariat of Central American Economic Integration), SICA (Central American Integration System), UKAID (United Kingdom Department of International Development) and DANIDA (Danish International Development Agency), (2015), Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options, (LC/MEX/L.1196/Rev.1), Mexico City, Mexico. The views expressed in this document are strictly those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization or of the partner institutions. Text was prepared by Julie Lennox, Diana Ramírez and Jaime Olivares, Staff of the Agricultural Development and Economics of Climate Change Unit of the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters in Mexico. The valuable work of Deepti Limaye is also appreciated. The boundaries and names that appear in the maps contained in this document do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations The term “dollars” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. United Nations Publication LC/MEX/L.1196/Rev.1 Distribution: Limited Original: Spanish This is an unofficial translation of the document “Cambio climático en Centroamérica – Impactos potenciales y opciones de política pública” Copyright © United Nations, August 2018 All Rights Reserved Printed in the United Nations, Mexico City 2018-024 The authorization to reproduce all or part of this work must be requested from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Publications and Web Services Division, [email protected]. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction. Cover photo and acknowledgment: Juan Pablo Moreiras/CCAD (2012). Cover design: Alejandro Espinosa (Sonideas) and Jorge Ronzón, USEC, ECLAC/Mexico. Our Grateful Thanks To the rivers that crisscross Central America, from the smallest springs to the longest and mightiest rivers To the trees that raise their branches and leaves to the sky and bury their roots deep in the soil We give thanks for the home you have given us and for your teachings. We hope to have sufficient wisdom to understand «And the Great Mother Ceiba rose up [Yaax Imix Che, “Green Ceiba”], in the midst of the memory of the destruction of Earth. She settled herself and raised her treetop asking for eternal leaves» From the Chilam Balam of Chumayel Climate Change in Central America | Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options 7 © JUAN PABLO MOREIRAS/CCAD 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ............................................................................................................................................... 13 Key Messages ............................................................................................................................................... 15 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................... 19 1. Sustainable and inclusive adaptation .................................................................................................. 21 2. Evidence of extreme events and climate change scenarios ............................................................... 28 2.1 Climate variability and climate change in Central America ................................................. 32 2.2 Trends in Extreme Events .......................................................................................................... 41 3. Potential impacts and policy options for key sectors ........................................................................ 62 3.1 Water Demand and Availability ............................................................................................... 62 3.2 Agriculture and Food and Nutrition Security ......................................................................... 69 3.3 Biodiversity and Ecosystems ................................................................................................... 103 3.4 Energy ...................................................................................................................................... 115 3.5 Health ...................................................................................................................................... 135 3.6 Fiscal Policy ................................................................................................................................ 145 3.7 Trade Policy ................................................................................................................................ 148 4. Conclusions ..............................................................................................................................................154 Bibliography ..............................................................................................................................................160 Acronyms and abreviations ........................................................................................................................169 8 Climate Change in Central America | Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options TABLES Table 1 Central america and Dominican Republic: Climate vulnerability monitor, national loss totals, 2010 and 2030 .................................................................... 29 Table 2 Central America and Dominican Republic: Climate vulnerability monitor, vulnerability level, 2010 and 2030 .................................................................... 29 Table 3 El Salvador, Ilopango: Number of events surpassing thresholds, 1971-2011 ......................................................................................................... 40 Table 4 Central America and Dominican Republic: Economic losses caused by major disasters ............................................................................................................... 53 Table 5 Central America: Per capita reduction of water availability, baseline scenario, B2 and A2, 2005-2100 .......................................................................... 64 Table 6 Central America: Evolution of corn yields, 2001-2009 average and scenario B2 and A2 up to 2100 .................................................................................. 75 Table 7 Central America: Evolution of bean yields, 2001-2009 average and scenario B2 and A2 up to 2100 ................................................................................. 78 Table 8 Central America: Evolution of rice yields, 2001-2009 average and scenario B2 and A2 up to 2100 .................................................................................. 80 Table 9 Central America: Evolution of cofee yields, 2001-2009 average and scenario B2 and A2 up to 2100 ................................................................................