The Dutch Deltaprogramme & adaptive delta management Peter C.G. Glas LLM MSc Deltacommissioner 26-10-2020 26 October 2020 1 The Netherlands, a delta country 26 October 2020 2 A history of water management circa 1580 circa 1700 2000 26 October 2020 3 History of flood protection in NL Century 20th: • 1916 floods (North) • 1953 flood disaster (South-West) Structural solutions with dams and barriers Afsluitdijk dam to create IJsselmeer, Delta Works •1993/1995 high water levels (rivers) Developments in policy: − Integrated water management − Three layer flood safety approach − Room for the river − Building with nature 26 October 2020 4 Challenges in the 21st century Increased More /extreme More/intense More summer invested storms? rainfall drought value Increased Spatial river developments discharge + 10% Sealevel rise Salt Decreased Increased (20 cm--> intrusion river erosion 100 cm/100y) Subsidence discharge 0,5-1.0cm/yr - 60% 26 October 2020 5 2nd Delta Programme • 2007 new Delta Committee • 2008 advice to Cabinet • 2010 Delta Commissioner • 2012 Delta Act, Delta Fund • 2011 etc. Annual Delta programme: 1. Flood protection 2. Fresh (surface/ground) water availability 3. Spatial Adaptation • 2014 Delta decisions & strategies • 2020 first 6yr Recalibration 26 October 2020 6 Uncertain future → scenario’s • Climate change – Temperature – Rainfall, evaporation – River discharge – Sea level rise, • Socio-economic developments – Population, demography – Economic growth, 1) When will current policies fail? 2) What possible futures should we – Land use/urban development prepare for? → inspiration for new strategies, 3) How will strategies perform under different conditions? → robustness test 26 October 2020 7 Uncertain future → expected tipping points →Failure of Drinking-water intake points too saline present policies Design criteria storm-surge barrier exceeded Closing freq. storm-surge barrier too high Sand nourishment insufficient 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 cm sea-level rise → Translate to time Steam 2050 Steam 2100 Rest 2100 26 October 2020 Staff Delta Programme Commissioner8 ... adaptive strategies Decision making in uncertain future, → adaptive strategies: • Clear in objectives, • Adaptable to actual conditions • Flexible in “way to go” • Do what is necessary now, keep future options open • Linking short term agenda’s with long term water challenges Implementation in uncertain future → Flexible measures (“speed up/ slow down” → Building with Nature) or robust design. → Spatial reservations 26 October 2020 9 ... and monitoring and evaluation 6 yr recalibration: Signal group: Are we still on the designated Are we on the right track? track & on schedule? ➢ New knowledge about climate ➢ Check on basic assumptions change, water management, land use ➢ New developments in water → 10 indicators challenges ➢ Developments in politics and society ➢ Recalibration proposals (support, budget, innovations) ➢ Synthesis documents, ➢ Dashboard + annual advice ➢ Independant review e.g. (accelerated Sea Level Rise) 26 October 2020 10 Accelerated sea level rise? Deltascenario’s 2014 2050 2085 2100 RCP4.5 15-30 25-60 (+2°C) RCP8.5 20-40 45-80 100 (+4°C) Stijging t.o.v. 1981-2000 (cm), KNMI 26 October 2020 11 19 Research program Sea Level Rise • Focus: flood protection and fresh water supply beyond 2100 • Deltaprogramme partners 5 tracks: I: Antarctica and Sea Level Rise II: System analyses III: Monitoring and Early Warning IV: Long term perspectives V: Implementation aspects 26 October 2020 12 20 Track III Monitoring and Early warning When to act? • Develop a method (and collect data) to detect accelerated SLR in a timely and reliable way by • Signal group Deltaprogramme (KNMI, RWS, Deltares, PBL, WUR, CBS, staf DC) • International cooperation, also with Singapore? 13 26 October 2020 Track IV Long term options how to act? (see http://nladapt.deltares.nl) 26 October 2020 14 The World Bank The four Deltares, Delft Washington DC, USA “founding”fathers The Netherlands Deep uncertainty Mission Statement The Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) • multi-disciplinary association of practicing professionals (..) • to improve processes, methods, and tools for decision making under deep uncertainty, facilitate their use in practice, • and foster effective and responsible decision making in our rapidly changing world. Oxford University The RAND Corporation United Kingdom Santa Monica, Ca. USA16 Australia – drought Netherlands – flood safety ...focus on developing, disseminating, and using these DMDU approaches across multiple policy domains such as energy, health, social and economic well-being, defense, water, environment, and transport. UK – Thames Barrier New Zealand – Hutt River18 Thank you very much for your attention @delta_comm [email protected] Peter Glas www.deltacommissaris.nl/english Delta commissioner 26 October 2020 19.