2020-2024 PUBLIC HEARING DRAFT APPENDICES May 28, 2020 Prepared by Montgomery Planning www.MontgomeryPlanning.org [This page is intentionally blank.] Table of Contents Appendix A. Forecasting Future Growth ............................................................................................... 5 Summary ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Montgomery County Jurisdictional Forecast Methodology ...................................................................... 5 Overview ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Countywide Forecast ............................................................................................................................. 5 TAZ-level Small Area Forecast ............................................................................................................... 6 Projection Reconciliation ....................................................................................................................... 8 Appendix B. Recent Trends in Real Estate ........................................................................................... 11 Residential Real Estate ............................................................................................................................ 11 For-Sale Residential ............................................................................................................................. 11 Rental Residential ................................................................................................................................ 13 Commercial Real Estate ........................................................................................................................... 14 Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Office ................................................................................................................................................... 14 Retail ................................................................................................................................................... 15 Industrial/Flex ...................................................................................................................................... 15 Appendix C. Other Relevant Growth Measures ................................................................................... 17 Slower growth of mature, populous county still adds 200,000 people ................................................... 17 Foreign immigration offsets domestic out-migration .............................................................................. 19 Births influence population growth and diversity ................................................................................... 20 Racial and ethnic diversity, hallmark of change ...................................................................................... 22 Life-cycle events of an aging population ................................................................................................. 23 Household income yet to recover from recession .................................................................................. 24 Evolving household types outpace married couples with children ......................................................... 26 Increase in non-family households coincides with addition of multi-family units ................................... 28 Appendix D. Residential Capacity Analysis ........................................................................................... 31 Appendix E. Ten-Year Employment Forecast and Key Employment Factors ......................................... 33 2030 Employment Forecast .................................................................................................................... 33 Employment Factors ............................................................................................................................... 34 Appendix F. The Schools Element ....................................................................................................... 37 Increase School Capacities ...................................................................................................................... 37 Place Areas in Moratorium ...................................................................................................................... 39 Change School Capacity Standards .......................................................................................................... 42 COUNTY GROWTH POLICY | PUBLIC HEARING DRAFT APPENDICES | MAY 2020 i Lower the Zoned Residential Capacities .................................................................................................. 43 Implementing School-Based Solutions .................................................................................................... 43 Increasing Capacity by Lowering Construction Costs .......................................................................... 43 Flexible Design Standards .................................................................................................................... 44 Increased Inter-agency Collaboration ................................................................................................. 45 Appendix G. Student Generation Rate Analysis ................................................................................... 47 Currently Used Student Generation Rates .............................................................................................. 47 Alternative Student Generation Rates ..................................................................................................... 50 Appendix H. School Impact Areas ....................................................................................................... 59 Development of the School Impact Areas ............................................................................................... 59 Statistical Comparison of the School Impact Areas ................................................................................. 60 Appendix I. School Adequacy Policies from Other Jurisdictions .......................................................... 65 Purpose ................................................................................................................................................... 65 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 65 Key Findings ............................................................................................................................................. 66 General ................................................................................................................................................ 66 Turnover Development vs New Development .................................................................................... 66 School Crowding .................................................................................................................................. 66 Moratoria ............................................................................................................................................ 66 Impact Fees/Taxes ............................................................................................................................... 66 Growth Management Comparison Chart ................................................................................................ 67 Montgomery County, Maryland .......................................................................................................... 68 Baltimore County, Maryland ............................................................................................................... 69 Harford County, Maryland ................................................................................................................... 70 Howard County, Maryland .................................................................................................................. 71 Prince George’s County, Maryland ...................................................................................................... 72 Arlington County, Virginia ................................................................................................................... 73 Fairfax County, Virginia ........................................................................................................................ 74 Loudoun County, Virginia .................................................................................................................... 75 Montgomery County, Pennsylvania .................................................................................................... 76 Wake County, North Carolina .............................................................................................................. 77 Pinellas County, Florida ....................................................................................................................... 78 Contra Costa County, California .........................................................................................................