Monthly report on food security in Chad February 21, 2003 SUMMARY Food security conditions are deteriorating in most structurally deficit areas (Kanem), certain rice- growing areas (northern Doba, Tandjilé and Mayo-Kebbi departments) and a number of departments plagued by drought and pressure from crop predators (West Batha, Amdam and Abdi). Future prospects for an improvement in the food situation in these areas are uncertain with the poor performance of flood-recession sorghum crops (berbéré) in farming areas of Gounou Gaya, Fianga and Binder (in the Sudanian zone) and a large part of the Sahelian zone. Only Salamat department is reporting good overall crop performance (except in the Mouraye subprefecture, where grasshoppers have caused rather extensive damage to area crops). FEWS NET/Chad is keeping a close watch on conditions in these areas. The food security status of displaced persons and refugees from the Central African Republic was addressed by the Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs in a statement to the diplomatic corps and representatives of international organizations on February 7. A recent count estimates the number of IDPs from CAR at 14,175. According to a government delegation touring areas of the country where many such families have settled, the food situation and health status of these households is disturbing, to say the least. This year’s groundnut crop, which is the country’s second most important cash crop after cotton, is not bringing in enough income. Production forecasts for the 2002-03 growing season are well below both last year’s figures and figures for the last four years. The Agricultural Statistics Bureau (DSA) attributes this year’s poor performance to climatic factors, plant diseases and attacks by crop predators. Millet prices on the country’s four largest markets are down from last month, benefiting consumers forced to purchase their provisions on local markets. 1. Recap of findings by field missions to departments around the country In the wake of last October’s pre-harvest assessment missions for the 2002-03 growing season, the Ministry of Agriculture, with support from the FAO, WFP and FEWS NET, dispatched four teams into the field in the second half of January to confirm the status of areas previously identified as vulnerable to food insecurity problems and classified as moderately or highly food- insecure, in an effort to reassess the food security status of the population. In general, overall food security conditions in Sila, Biltine, East Batha and Assongha departments are satisfactory. On the other hand, the food situation in several villages in Rural Abéché, Chokoyan, Abdi and Amdam subprefectures, while not critical at this time, is expected to create hardship conditions during this year’s lean period. Bourtail canton in Rural Abéché subprefecture, for example, is already affected by pockets of food insecurity as are Ouadi Hamra canton in Chokoyan subprefecture, Korio and Abdi cantons in Abdi prefecture and cantons throughout Amdam subprefecture. Planting delays, attacks by crop predators and the unexpected drought were responsible for the failure of the pearl millet crop in West Batha department, the staple food crop grown by local farmers in that area. Pasture production is nonexistent, except in a few localized areas. Only parts of this department had a good grain harvest for the 2001-02 growing season. West Batha department has the largest highly food-insecure population. In fact, according to the members of the field mission, all local market supplies are brought in from neighboring departments. Millet prices are up to 200 F/kg, compared with 115 F in a normal year. There are already reports of some out-migration to adjacent departments and large cities. According to the mission, there are cantons in most subprefectures which can expect to experience food insecurity problems during this year’s lean period, if not sooner. Kanem and Bahr El Ghazel departments and the continental portion of Lac department have structural food deficits. Harvests in these areas were extremely poor as a result of sporadic rainfall during the 2002-03 growing season and attacks by crop predators. A kilogram of millet is currently selling for 250 F, compared with 140 F in an average year. This jump in prices is also attributed to mediocre and barely average harvests in neighboring departments such as West Batha, parts of Chari Baguirmi and Lac departments. Reports out of Hadjer Lamis department indicate pockets of food insecurity in and around Karmé, where the field mission witnessed the digging of termite nests first-hand. Harvests of flood-recession sorghum (berbéré) crops have been poor in a number of villages in Massaguet subprefecture. Salamat department is known as the country’s grain basket, with its endless floodplains planted in flood-recession sorghum crops. Rainfed and off-season crop production throughout the department has been rather good, except in villages plagued by inter-community conflicts (in Mourraye subprefecture). A number of villages in Mongo, Mangalmé and Bitkine subprefectures in Guéra department are going to have a difficult lean period. Dababa and Baguirmi departments are in the same situation. The localized grain deficits in these areas are attributed mostly to rainfall deficits and attacks by crop predators. According to the members of the field team, harvests of berbéré crops in these latter departments have not been that good. Rice, small grain millet and sorghum and berbéré production has been below-average. A number of farming villages or cantons in rice-growing areas of the country have had poor rice harvests in the wake of this year’s rainfall deficits and unexpected localized droughts. Crop failures in some cases and planting failures in others have created pockets of food insecurity throughout rice-growing areas of the country. Planting delays and the unexpected drought compounded problems for a number of at-risk cantons in the Sudanian zone which failed to produce any rainfed sorghum or millet crops. Harvests of berbéré crops in producing areas of Gounou Gaya, Fianga, Binder and parts of Mayo Boneye are mediocre. According to the members of the various field missions, the future outlook for the food-insecure areas referred to above is not good, and this year’s lean period is expected to be a hard one. Thus, they are recommending that all members of the CASAGC (the Action Committee for Food Security and Crisis Management) get involved in targeting efforts in these areas to improve coordination and response times in the event of the need for intervention before and/or during this year’s lean period. 2 2. Groundnut production for the 2002-03 growing season Groundnuts are the cash crop of choice in a number of departments in the country’s Sahelian and Sudanian zones. Groundnut production for the 2002-03 growing season is down considerably from last year and way below the average for the past 5 year period. According to estimates released by the Agricultural Statistics Bureau (DSA), total nationwide groundnut production for the 2002-03 crop year is 261,818 MT (see Figure 1), which is down 41 percent from last year and 32 percent below the average for the past 5 year period. This decline in groundnut production is attributed to a number of different factors, including: 1) erratic rainfall; 2) the unexpected drought; 3) attacks by crop predators. Figure 1: Trends in Grundnut Production 1998-2003 600,000 510,940 448,089 500,000 353,927 358,791 400,000 261,818 300,000 MT 200,000 100,000 0 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Period FEWSNET/Chad Source: DSA Groundnut production from this year’s harvests is down from last year in all producing prefectures, with the sole exception of Mayo Kebbi, where it is slightly above last year’s figure. This decline in groundnut production is affecting farmer income and household food security. In fact, in a good or average year, some groundnut farmers will sell their crops to buy small stock animals, meet basic needs and buy grain for on-farm consumption or resale during the lean period. This year’s poor harvests are going to weaken the purchasing power of groundnut farmers which, in turn, will affect their food security status in some way or another. Consumer prices for groundnuts and oil are up from last year. Market prices in the capitals of the country’s two leading groundnut-producing prefectures (Ouaddaï and Moyen Chari) are visibly up from last year’s figures. On the market in Sarh, groundnuts were selling for 240 F/kg in mid-February of this year, compared with 150 F/kg at the same time last year, an increase of 60 percent. On 3 the Abéché market, groundnuts were selling for 306 F/kg in mid-February of this year, compared with 210 F in mid-February of last year, an increase of 46 percent. 3. Update on the food situation of displaced persons and refugees from the Central African Republic The food situation and health status of displaced persons and refugees streaming into Chad from the Central African Republic is disturbing, according to the government delegation visiting corresponding settlement areas. Recent fighting in the CAR between government troops and rebels on February 13th and 14th sped up the flow of displaced persons pouring into villages in border areas of Chad. According to the government delegation, the latest count puts a total of 14,175 persons in this category. Their food situation is precarious and their health is poor. Living conditions are harsh and they are exposed to the elements. The members of the delegation reported cases of diarrhea, malaria and measles, among other diseases. The departments with the largest influx of refugees and displaced persons are Barh-Kô and East Logone on the country’s border with the Central African Republic.