State of Kansas Exceptional Event Demonstration Package April 6, 12, 13, and 29, 2011 Department of Health and Environment Division of Environment Bureau of Air November 27, 2012 This document contains blank pages to accommodate double-sided printing. Kansas Exceptional Events Acknowledgements Acknowledgments The Kansas Department of Health and Environment would like to thank Sonoma Technology, Inc. (STI) for extensive contributions to Sections 1 and 2, Sections 4 through 8, and Appendices C and D. STI contributors include Daniel Alrick, Kenneth Craig, Clinton MacDonald, Hilary Hafner, and Mary Jo Teplitz. iii Kansas Exceptional Events Table of Contents Table of Contents Section Page List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. vii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... xiii 1. Overview ........................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Exceptional Event Definition and Demonstration Criteria ....................................... 1-3 1.2 Flint Hills Smoke Management Plan ....................................................................... 1-4 1.2.1 Notification .................................................................................................. 1-5 1.2.2 Education/Outreach .................................................................................... 1-5 1.2.3 Dispersion ................................................................................................... 1-5 1.2.4 Mitigation ..................................................................................................... 1-6 1.3 Summary of Approach ............................................................................................ 1-8 1.4 Summary of Findings .............................................................................................. 1-8 April 6, 2011 Event .................................................................................................. 1-9 April 12, 2011 Event .............................................................................................. 1-10 April 13, 2011 Event .............................................................................................. 1-12 April 29, 2011 Event .............................................................................................. 1-13 2. Data Acquisition ................................................................................................................ 2-1 3. Not Reasonably Preventable/Unlikely to Recur ................................................................ 3-1 3.1 Flint Hills Ecosystem ............................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Unlikely to Recur ..................................................................................................... 3-3 3.3 Alternative Management Practices ....................................................................... 3-10 3.3.1 Chemical Treatment .................................................................................. 3-11 3.3.2 Mechanical Removal ................................................................................. 3-12 3.3.3 Prescribed Burning .................................................................................... 3-13 3.4 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 3-14 4. Causal Relationship .......................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Summary of Results ................................................................................................ 4-1 4.2 Literature Review Providing Evidence that Biomass Burning Can Result in Elevated Ozone Levels ........................................................................................... 4-1 4.3 Analysis Methods .................................................................................................... 4-2 4.3.1 Existence of Fires and Other Unusual Emissions ....................................... 4-2 4.3.2 Meteorological Conditions and Smoke Transport ....................................... 4-5 4.3.3 Air Quality Conditions .................................................................................. 4-6 4.4 Findings ................................................................................................................... 4-6 April 6, 2011 ............................................................................................................ 4-6 April 12, 2011 ........................................................................................................ 4-13 April 13, 2011 ........................................................................................................ 4-21 April 29, 2011 ........................................................................................................ 4-28 5. Historical Norm ................................................................................................................. 5-1 v Kansas Exceptional Events Table of Contents 5.1 Summary of Results ................................................................................................ 5-1 5.2 Methods .................................................................................................................. 5-1 5.3 Findings ................................................................................................................... 5-2 5.3.1 Historical Cumulative Distributions .............................................................. 5-2 5.3.2 Diurnal Ozone Profiles .............................................................................. 5-10 5.3.3 Temperatures ............................................................................................ 5-16 5.3.4 Spatial Pattern of Ozone ........................................................................... 5-16 5.3.5 Replace Smoke Impacted Ozone Data from Historical Data .................... 5-19 6. But For Demonstration ..................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 6-1 6.2 Summary of Results ................................................................................................ 6-1 6.3 Matching Days ........................................................................................................ 6-2 6.3.1 Methods ...................................................................................................... 6-2 6.3.2 Matching Day Results ................................................................................. 6-2 6.4 Modeling ................................................................................................................ 6-20 6.4.1 Methods .................................................................................................... 6-20 6.4.2 Model Performance ................................................................................... 6-23 6.4.3 Results ...................................................................................................... 6-25 7. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 7-1 8. Public Comments ............................................................................................................. 8-1 8.1 KDHE response to EPA comments ......................................................................... 8-3 8.2 KDHE response to Sierra Club comments ............................................................ 8-24 9. References ....................................................................................................................... 9-1 Appendix A: KDHE Press Releases ........................................................................................ A-1 Appendix B: Media Reports…………………………………………………………………………. B-1 Appendix C: Trajectories .......................................................................................................... C-1 Appendix D: BlueSky NOx and VOC Plots ............................................................................... D-1 Appendix E: Outreach/Education Summary………………………………………………………. E-1 Appendix F: State of Oklahoma DEQ Support Letter……………………………………………. F-1 vi Kansas Exceptional Events List of Figures List of Figures Figure Page 1-1. Kansas air quality and meteorological (METAR) monitoring sites. ................................ 1-2 1-2. Wichita area air quality and nearby meteorological monitoring sites. ............................ 1-2 1-3. Summary of conditions on April 6, 2011 ...................................................................... 1-10 1-4. Summary of conditions on April 12, 2011 .................................................................... 1-11 1-5. Summary of conditions on April 13, 2011 .................................................................... 1-12 1-6. Summary of conditions on April 29, 2011 .................................................................... 1-14 3-1. Kansas Flint Hills Ecosystem outlined in black .............................................................. 3-2 3-2.