FINAL REPORT: Review of Strategy for Sea and Air Access February 2017 This report has been produced by Coffey International for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the UK Department for International Development (DFID) contracted through the Climate, Environment, Infrastructure and Livelihoods Professional Evidence and Applied Knowledge Services (CEIL PEAKS) programme, jointly managed by DAI (which incorporates HTSPE Limited) and IMC Worldwide Limited. The views expressed in the report are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily represent DFID’s own views or policies, or those of Evidence on Demand. Comments and discussion on items related to content and opinion should be addressed to the author, via [email protected] Your feedback helps us ensure the quality and usefulness of all knowledge products. 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DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.12774/eod_cr.february2017.coffey Published February 2017 © CROWN COPYRIGHT Contents List of acronyms iv Report summary vii section 1 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objectives and rationale 1 1.3 Overview of Montserrat air terminal 2 1.4 Overview of Montserrat sea terminal 2 1.5 Overview of current institutional arrangements 2 1.6 MAS Review consultants working arrangements/ schedule 2 1.7 Structure of the report 4 section 2 4 Background and connectivity definitions 4 2.1 Introduction 4 2.2 Chronology of Access/Connectivity issues and developments 4 2.3 Connectivity definitions 6 section 3 10 Current situation 10 3.1 Introduction 10 3.2 Regional transport markets 11 3.3 Lifeline route operating conditions 16 3.4 Terminal conditions 18 3.5 Service conditions 21 3.6 Overview of organisations dealing with Connectivity 26 3.7 Access/ Connectivity coordination 29 3.8 Connectivity conditions in other Comparative Islands in the Caribbean and elsewhere 30 3.8.1 Approach 30 i 3.8.2 Brief review of small island connectivity environments (including Caribbean islands) 32 3.8.3 Lessons Learned 33 3.9 SWOT analysis 34 3.10 Connectivity scorecard 34 section 4 36 Core elements of the Basic Connectivity Strategy (BCS) 36 4.1 Introduction 36 4.2 Investment aspects of the BCS 36 4.3 Operational aspects of the BCS 41 4.4 Institutional aspects of the BCS 45 section 5 47 Core elements of the Enhanced Connectivity Strategy (ECS) 47 5.1 Introduction 47 5.2 Investment aspects of the ECS 47 5.3 Operational aspects of the ECS 52 5.4 Institutional aspects of the ECS 54 section 6 55 Way forward and recommendations 55 6.1 Introduction 55 6.2 Some basic connectivity goals 57 6.3 Proposed strategy agenda 57 6.3.1 Public and private sector investment in priority connectivity infrastructure 58 6.3.2 Operational improvements in lifeline air and ferry services 59 6.3.3 Supporting institutional development and capacity building 64 6.4 Gaps in evidence 68 Bibliography 69 3.11 Analysis of Tourism Data by Mode of Transport 112 List of Figures ii Figure 1 SWOT Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 2 Scorecard for the current situation......................................................................................... 36 List of Annexes Annex 1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................................................. 73 Annex 2 Comparative Islands in the Caribbean and elsewhere ........................................................... 76 Annex 3 Tourism Masterplan Developments and Refinement of the Montserrat Access Strategy..... 82 Annex 4 Phased Port Development in Montserrat Little Bay Port ..................................................... 115 Annex 5 Implications of the Aeronautical Study of John A. Osborne Airport for the Access Strategy ............................................................................................................................................................ 120 Annex 6 Revised Terms of Reference ................................................................................................. 126 Annex 7 Montserrat Visit Programme Access Expert: David Shelley ................................................. 131 Annex 8 Comparison with Islands of St. Mary, Scilly Isles, Islay, Inner Hebrides and Inishmore, Aran Islands, Ireland .................................................................................................................................... 136 iii List of acronyms AAIB Air Accident Investigation Branch AGL Airfield Ground Lighting APAPI Abbreviated Precision Approach Path Indicator ASSI Air Safety Support International (based in Crawley, UK) BCS Basic Connectivity Strategy for Montserrat BVI British Virgin Islands CAA UK Civil Aviation Authority CDB Caribbean Development Bank CSO Central Statistical Organisation Montserrat ECCB Eastern Caribbean Central Bank C&I Customs and Immigration DFID UK’s Department for International Development DMCA Disaster Management Coordination Agency ECCAA Eastern Caribbean Civil Aviation Authority ECS Enhanced Connectivity Strategy for Montserrat Emc2 Consulting Company for Environmental Impact Assessment at Little Bay GDP Gross Domestic Product GDS Global Distribution System (Amadeus, etc,) GRT Gross Registered Tons GoM Government of Montserrat HMG Her Majesty’s Government IATA International Air Transport Association ICT Information and communications technology ICAO International Civil Aviation Authority IMO International Maritime Organisation LCL Less than Container Load LIAT Leeward Islands Air Transport Company (Regional ‘Second Tier’ Airline) iv MAS Montserrat Access Strategy- current Strategy for Access/Connectivity for Montserrat MCW Ministry of Communications & Works MCS Montserrat Connectivity Strategy MNI IATA Code JA Osborne Airport, Montserrat MOT Ministry of Transport MPA Montserrat Port Authority MTB Montserrat Tourist Board MVO Montserrat Volcanic Observatory Nm Nautical miles OECS Organisation of EasternCaribbean OLS Obstacle Limitation Surfaces OJT On-the-Job Training OT Overseas Territory PA Port Authority PSO Public Service Obligation Pax Passenger PIU Project Implementation Unit PSP Private Sector Participation RESAs Runway End Safety Areas RoRo Roll-on Roll-off cargo service RPK Route Passenger Kms RWY Runway SAR Search and Rescue SLA Service level agreement SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats TEU 20-foot Equivalent Unit (smaller container size) UVI United States Virgin Islands VfM Value for Money VFR Visual Flight Rules WTP/ATP Willingness to Pay/ Ability to Pay v vi Report summary The objective is to undertake a comprehensive and evidence-based review of the strategy for sea and air access for Montserrat. The strategy recommends actions to upgrade the current access infrastructure where needed, to improve GoM capacity for managing and coordinating access effectively and to maximise effectiveness of UK aid money and capitalise on opportunities to share risks and costs with the private sector. A major study issued by GoM (MCW) in 2011 entitled Montserrat Access Strategy formed an important basis for the Review. Of fundamental importance to the connectivity agenda is the 2016 National Tourism Masterplan for Montserrat. In addition, a recent World Bank publication entitled Connectivity in the Caribbean provides insights into transport operations as well as examples of good practise. Analysis of connectivity experience in a sample of other OT’s has supplemented the background research. Instead of Access, the Review has used the more recent term Connectivity, which is not uni- directional and embraces the concept of transport to and from Montserrat. Within the Caribbean, inter-island passenger transportation has in recent decades been dominated by air transport: ferry services serve predominantly inter-island (domestic) markets and are not generally well developed.A notable feature of air connectivity is the very good external air connectivity (with long-haul direct flights) in close proximity to Montserrat. VC Bird Airport on Antigua is a very short distance away from Montserrat via short-haul feeder air services operated by several Third Tier airlines.Montserrat also has adequate short and medium-distance direct maritime freight connectivity through regional RoRo liner services that operate locally in the Caribbean. In common with the ferry operation however, there are significant breaks in maritime connectivity during the winter period, when Little Bay jetty cannot be operated due to rough seas. The main connectivity/access constraint for sea and air passengers exists in the Last Mile linkages, between the islands of Antigua and Montserrat. During the winter period the Last Mile maritime connection is often severed, due to high seas, resulting in ferry berthing difficulties and safety concerns at Little Bay Port. The Review assessed that immediate design and implementation of the Little Bay Port protection breakwater project is the key to ensuring year-round lifeline ferry (and roro cargo) services. Until there is a safe harbour it is unlikely that ferry operators would assign faster more modern ferries onto the route between Antigua and Montserrat, for reasons of safety and insurance. It is also unlikely that other regional ferry operators from neighbouring islands would call Little Bay Port during