This issue brought to you by Texas 6 Special: Two-Step Process By Jacob Rubashkin MARCH 19, 2021 VOLUME 5, NO. 6 A special election to replace the only member of Congress who died after contracting covid-19 could be the first substantive look at the Biden- era political landscape. 2022 Senate Ratings Arlington Republican Rep. Ron Wright, who had won a second term BATTLEGROUND last November, died on February 7 just two weeks after being hospitalized with covid-19 (Wright had lived for several years with lung cancer). Democratic-Held (4) Republican-Held (4) That leaves his Dallas-Fort Worth area district vacant, and Gov. Greg Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) NC Open (Burr, R) Abbott has set May 1 as the date for the contest to succeed him. Under Hassan (D-N.H.) PA Open (Toomey, R) state law, all candidates will compete on the same ballot and the top two, Kelly (D-Ariz.) Johnson (R-Wisc.) regardless of party, will move to a runoff if no one receives a majority. Warnock (D-Ga.) Rubio (R-Fl.) Unlike the four other districts set to hold special elections this year, Texas’ 6th has the potential to be a real race between Democrats and Solid Democratic (10) Solid Republican (16) Republicans. Though historically Republican, the district’s high number Bennet (D-Colo.) AL Open (Shelby, R) of suburban voters have shifted away from the GOP in recent years, Blumenthal (D-Conn.) MO Open (Blunt, R) making the district competitive at the presidential and Senate levels. And Duckworth (D-Ill.) OH Open (Portman, R) several Democrats are running serious campaigns and hoping to catch Leahy (D-Vt.) Boozman (R-Ark.) fire like some of the candidates who ran in the special elections of 2017. Murray (D-Wash.) Crapo (R-Idaho) With the slimmest Democratic majority in the House in a century, Padilla (D-Calif.) Grassley (R-Iowa) every seat counts, and this race presents both parties with the first Schatz (D-Hawaii) Hoeven (R-N.D.) opportunity of the cycle to claim a real electoral victory. Schumer (D-N.Y.) Kennedy (R-La.) Van Hollen (D-Md.) Lankford (R-Okla.) Wyden (D-Ore.) Lee (R-Utah) The Lay of the Land Eleven Republicans, 10 Democrats, one Libertarian and one independent Moran (R-Kan.) Murkowski (R-Alaska) are running in the 6th District, which stretches from the southeast corner of Paul (R-Ky.) Tarrant County through all of Ellis and Navarro Counties. Scott (R-S.C.) This race has the potential to be the most competitive congressional Thune (R-S.D.) special election since Trump left office; the former president won it Young (R-Ind.) by just 3 points, 51-48 percent, over Joe Biden in 2020, a slide from his 54-42 percent victory in 2016 and a steep drop from the 58-41 percent shellacking Mitt Romney hung on Barack Obama in 2012. Only four districts in Texas swung harder from Hillary Clinton to Biden. As was the case across the country, the district’s leftward march was powered by the suburbs; here, that’s Tarrant County, which includes CALENDAR Fort Worth and Arlington. In 2016, Tarrant County voted for Trump by 52-43 percent. Four years later, Biden became the first Democrat in 56 March 20 Louisiana’s 2nd & 5th Districts Special Elections years, since former Texas senator/President Lyndon B. Johnson, to carry GOP DEM April 24 Louisiana Special Election runoffs (if necessary) Tarrant, 49.3-49.1 percent. 115th Congress 51 49 May 1 Texas’ 6th Special Election The portion of Tarrant that sits within the 6th District casts accounts Not up this cycle 42 23 May 8 Virginia Republican Gubernatorial Convention for about 70 percent of the district’s total votes; it shifted substantially Currently Solid 4 18 May 24 Texas’ 6th Special Election runoff (if necessary) too, from a 49-47 percent Clinton victory to 55-44 percent for Biden. Competitive 5 8 Biden also bested Clinton’s performance in Ellis County, which June 1 New Mexico’s 1st District Special Election Continued on page 7 Nov. 2 New Jersey & Virginia Gubernatorial Elections InsideElections.com CALENDAR July 30-31 Democratic Presidential Debates (Detroit, Mich.) Oct. 12 Louisiana Gubernatorial Jungle Primary Aug. 6 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Nov. 5 Mississippi and Kentucky Gubernatorial General Elections Aug. 27 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Runoff Nov. 16 Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election Sept. 10 North Carolina’s 3rd & 9th District Special General Elections Dec. 2 Illinois Candidate Filing Deadline Sept. 12-13 Democratic Presidential Debates Dec. 9 Texas Candidate Filing Deadline Breaking Down the Redistricting Process By Nathan L. Gonzales Ten years is long enough to forget how crazy redistricting cycles can be. In the absence of official data, reputable analytics firms, such as There’s the normal uncertainty of new congressional lines Election Data Services, have released estimates based on available and renumbered districts. Add in a narrowly divided House of information. Representatives, frayed nerves from the 2020 election and subsequent Seven states are likely to gain at least one seat. Texas is likely to gain invasion of the Capitol, and data delays from the U.S. Census Bureau, three seats, Florida is likely to gain two seats and Arizona, Colorado, and the foundation is set for a tumultuous two years that will shape the Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon are poised to gain a single seat each. fight for Congress for the next decade. On the other side of the ledger nine or 10 states are likely to lose a The stakes in redistricting are high as Republicans need to gain just a district. California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, half-dozen seats to get back to the majority in the midterm elections. And Rhode Island, New York and West Virginia are likely to lose a district. control of the House will have a fundamental impact on the success and Then it’s unclear whether New York will lose a second seat or Alabama effectiveness of President Joe Biden in the last two years of his first term. will lose one district. That could depend on how the Census Bureau counts Due to delays from the Census Bureau, the entire process is just college students in New York City, who were barred from campuses due to getting started. Once reapportionment has been finalized, then states will the pandemic on April 1, 2020 when a key count was taken. move to redistricting, navigate inevitable litigation, and finally actually Reapportionment also changes the Electoral College votes for the conduct the elections. And each step is fraught with complexities and next decade. In 2020, Biden defeated President Donald Trump 306 to potential surprises. 232. If the states vote for the same party in the 2024 presidential race, the Democratic nominee would prevail by a similar 302 to 236 margin, Reapportionment? assuming New York loses one seat and Alabama loses one seat. Every 10 years after the census, the country goes through reapportionment, with the goal of making each congressional district the Redistricting same size according to population. For some perspective, the average Once reapportionment is complete and official, all states go through district included 646,952 people following the 2000 census and 710,767 the redistricting process. Even states that don’t gain or lose districts see people following the 2010 census. Going even further back, districts population shifts within the state, so redrawing congressional lines is for the country’s first Congress in 1789 contained approximately 34,000 necessary except in states that have a single, at-large district. constituents (except just 3/5ths of enslaved people). For example, South Carolina’s 1st District had an estimated 2019 Over the course of a decade, population growth and trends can create population of 821,107 while the neighboring 6th District had an districts with wide disparities in population, making reapportionment estimated population of 665,215, according to 2019 ACS estimates. But necessary. For example, Texas’ 22nd District, southwest of Houston, the Palmetto State is likely to maintain its seven districts. had an estimated 2019 population of 960,957 while Texas’ 13th District In a typical redistricting cycle, the Census Bureau would have already in North Texas had an estimated population of 714,733, according to started releasing on a rolling basis the second set of granular data the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. That difference of (including information on race and ethnicity) that states need to actually 246,000 in population between districts about 500 miles away from each draw the lines. Instead, that data is scheduled to be released in one batch other is a prime reason for the need for reapportionment. by Sept. 30. Since the total number of House districts was set at 435 by Congress Delays in delivering that data are putting states behind in the process, in 1929, some states will gain or lose seats through the equalization and particularly states with early 2021 primaries or deadlines imposed reapportionment process. by state constitutions to finish the redistricting process. For some The U.S. Census Bureau is supposed to release reapportionment data perspective from the last redistricting cycle, nearly half of the 435 districts by the last day of the census year (in this case December 31, 2020), but had been redrawn by October 2011, which is about the time the Census it has not so far. The final reapportionment data is now expected to be Bureau will be releasing data to start the work this year. released by the end of April. Continued on page 3 Ryan Matsumoto @InsideElections Contributing Analyst [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Bradley Wascher Will Taylor Contributing Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L.