“Continuity within Change: The German-American Foreign and Security Relationship during President Clinton’s First Term” Dissertation zur Erlangung des Grades Dr. phil. bei dem Fachbereich Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften der Freien Universität Berlin vorgelegt von Thorsten Klaßen Berlin 2008 Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Eberhard Sandschneider Zweitgutachter: Priv.-Doz. Dr. Peter Rudolf Datum der Disputation: 10.12.2008 2 Table of Contents Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. 6 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 7 A Note on Sources .................................................................................................................... 12 I. The United States After the End of the Cold War ................................................................ 13 I.1. Looking for the Next Paradigm: Theoretical Considerations in the 1990s.................... 13 I.1.1 The End of History ................................................................................................... 13 I.1.2 The Clash of Civilizations ....................................................................................... 15 I.1.3 Bipolar, Multipolar, Unipolar? ................................................................................ 17 I.2. The U.S. Strategic Debate .............................................................................................. 19 I.2.1 Collective Security ................................................................................................... 21 I.2.2 Multilateralism ......................................................................................................... 22 I.2.3 Unilateralism ............................................................................................................ 23 I.2.4 Isolationism .............................................................................................................. 24 I.2.5 Which Way, Uncle Sam? ......................................................................................... 25 I.3. U.S. National Interests ................................................................................................... 26 I.4. U.S. Military Strategy .................................................................................................... 28 I.4.1 Change in Military Strategy ..................................................................................... 28 I.4.2 Continuity in Military Strategy ................................................................................ 28 I.4.3 Two-War Strategy .................................................................................................... 30 I.4.4 Preventive Defense Measures .................................................................................. 30 II. Germany: After Reunification ............................................................................................. 32 II.1. Germany’s Role after Reunification ............................................................................. 32 II.2. A Normalization of German Foreign Policy? ............................................................... 36 II.3. Germany’s Agenda and Security Interests ................................................................... 38 II.4. Germany’s Role within Europe .................................................................................... 40 II.4.1. The Path to Monetary Union ................................................................................. 45 II.4.2. A Common Foreign and Security Policy ............................................................... 49 III. President Clinton’s First Term ........................................................................................... 52 III.1. Bill Clinton: The Man from Hope ............................................................................... 52 III.2. Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow: Nomination, Campaign, and Election ......... 56 III.3. Inside the White House (1993-1994) .......................................................................... 60 III.4. The Comeback Kid: Clinton’s Road to Reelection (1995-1996) ................................ 65 III.5. Foreign Policy Priorities and Developments ............................................................... 69 IV. The U.S.-German Relationship .......................................................................................... 76 IV.1. Challenges and Realities ............................................................................................. 76 IV.2 What do Germans Think of the United States? ........................................................... 81 IV.3 What do Americans Think of Germans? ...................................................................... 83 V. Proliferation of WMD in the 1990s ..................................................................................... 85 V.1. State of Play .................................................................................................................. 85 V.2. Non-proliferation Strategies and Initiatives ................................................................. 89 V.2.1. Russia on Our Mind .............................................................................................. 89 V.2.2. International Non-proliferation Regimes .............................................................. 92 VI. The War in Bosnia-Herzegovina ........................................................................................ 95 VI.1 Origins and Characterizations of the Conflict .............................................................. 95 VI.2. Germany Recognizes Croatia and Slovenia ................................................................ 97 VI.3 Europe in the Driver Seat: Early Conflict Resolution Efforts ................................... 100 VI.4 Enter Washington: Pre-Dayton Peace Efforts ............................................................ 106 3 VI.5 The Endgame and Beyond: Bosnia’s Implications for the Transatlantic Relationship ............................................................................................................................................ 110 VII. NATO Enlargement as Transatlantic Project ................................................................. 115 VII.1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 115 VII.2. The Case for NATO Enlargement ........................................................................... 117 VII.3 The Case against NATO enlargement ...................................................................... 122 VII.4 Origins of the Debate ................................................................................................ 126 VII.5 The Partnership for Peace ......................................................................................... 132 VII.6 Toward NATO Enlargement .................................................................................... 135 VII.7 NATO-Russia Founding Act and Madrid NATO Enlargement Summit ................. 141 VII.8. Cost Assessments and Ratification .......................................................................... 147 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 153 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................... 165 Zusammenfassung .................................................................................................................. 188 4 For Hilary 5 Abbreviations EA: Europa Archiv FA: Foreign Affairs FAZ: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung FT: Financial Times IHT: International Herald Tribune IP: Internationale Politik NYT: New York Times SZ: Süddeutsche Zeitung WP: Washington Post 6 Introduction The following analysis focuses on the German-American foreign and security relationship during Bill Clinton‘s first term in the White House (1993-1997). With the dissolution of the Soviet Union, policymakers and publics on both sides of the Atlantic witnessed a true moment of transition as the Iron Curtain first crumbled and then fell altogether. After several decades of confrontation between West and East on the European continent, in which Germany played a key role as a front-line state, the Bonn Republic now found itself as a player on a whole new geopolitical map. Given that the United States emerged as the sole superpower, the crucial question was whether the American and German partnership would fundamentally change or would their deep-rooted strategic relationship continue and even grow? In light of the redistribution of power on the world chess board, the key paradigm ―continuity within change‖ reveals that during the first Clinton administration, the German-American foreign and security relationship indeed continued as a key strategic alliance during the onset of a rapidly changing world. Although the potential for a reorientation in the German-American bilateral relationship was real due to the alleviated threat level of attack for Germany, Bonn and Washington continued their cooperation and coordination of their policies on the basis of their established track record in the last 45 years. Even though