Federal Government of Nigeria . '. ;" I,gie 'Colfliet Assessm Consolidated and Zonal Reports Nigefa nstitute lor Peace and Co f iel 8S0 ulion The Pres·de cy Abuja March 2003 FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT (SCA) REPORT MARCH 2002 BY INSTITUTE FOR PEACE AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION THE PRESIDENCY ii Publisher: INSTITUTE FOR PEACE AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION (IPCR) Head Office: The presidency Plot 496 Abogo Largema Street Off Constitution Avenue, Central Business District Abuja Telephone: 234-9-523-9458 © IPCR ISBN 978-36814-1-9 First Published 2003 Production by: lFA1et VEditions All Rights Reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced. stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior pemzission ofInstitute for Peace and Conflict Resolution ( [peR). This book is sold subject to the condition that it should not by any way of trade or otherwise be lent, re-sold, hired out or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form oj binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. Printed by: The Regent (Printing and Publishing) Ltd. No.1 Dabson LinklArgungu Road, OJ! Katsina Road P. O. Box 1380, Kaduna iii FOREWORD he Institute acknowledges with gratitude and respect the attention .. given by the President to the issue of conflict. He has recognised T..and asked others to face up to "the deep and persistent concern about the threat which violence poses to our electoral process and indeed to the survival of the democratic system in general and to our unity and oneness"~ . This gives us encouragement in our work and a belief that the way is open for new ideas and for change, if only we can meet the challenge of identifying what needs to be done. The Institute gratefully acknowledges financial and moral support for this study from DFID, UNDP, USAID, and the World Bank. Particular thanks are due to staff of these institutions who joined Prof. Osita Eze, Mr. Udenta Udenta, The SCA Coordinator, and I in the Advisory Group of the SCA. These include Mr. Dirk Reinermann and Ms Sarah Lyons of the World Bank who, at times, came in from Washington to participate ; Ms Claire Hickson, Governance Officer at DFID; Ms Winnie Wright of USAID; and Dr. Bade Falade of UNDP. I would also like to extend my thanks to other staff of donor institutions who traveled from abroad to participate in the process, notably Ms Wandia Gichuru of UNDP, and Ms Debi Duncan and Mr Roy Trivedy of DFID, London. The Institute also extends its thanks to the consultants who drafted this report for their good work, notably the Team Leaders- Prof Osita Eze of IPCR, Prof Celestine Bassey of the University of Cal~bar, Mrs Dayo Oluyemi-Kusa of Lagos State University, Mr Imran Abdulrahman of the University of Jos, Dr Fatima Adamu of the Usman Dan Fodio University and Dr Joseph Golwa of IPCR. I would also like to express appreciation to the members of the Advisory Group for their close scrutiny of the Phase Two report. iv Thanks are also due to DFID's international consultants. Dr Robin Luckham assisted us in drawing conclusions from the Phase One research. Mr Tony Vaux has conducted a training workshop for the researchers on assessment methodology and has made a particularly valuable contribution to the Phase One and Consolidated,Reports. I commend Dr Oshita O. Oshita, Assistant Director (Research and Policy Analysis) at IPCR for his capable management of this project and also his successor Mr Lanre Obafemi who is now charged with taking the process forward. Mention must also be made of the editorial effort the team comprising of Dr. Joseph Golwa, Mrs. Folasade Abayomi and Lanre Obafemi put in to get this report ready. lam glad to note that as well as providing an overview of conflicts in Nigeria today, the report has drawn attention to the need for specific action in the fields of early warning and conflict prevention. IPCR will consider these proposals carefully and take appropriate action. I am also glad to note that the process has also helped position IPCR as an organisation able to analyse conflict in a systematic way, not only in Nigeria but elsewhere and I expect that the experience will enable us to extend our work in Africa. These will be some small steps towards meeting the President's challenge. Dr Sunday Ochoche, Director General, IPCR November, 2002' v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page(s) Title page Foreword ii - iv Table of Contents v Map of Nigeria vi CONSOLIDATED REPORT 1 - 93 SOUTH-WEST ZONE 97 - 122 NORTH-CENTRAL ZONE 125 - 166 SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE 169 - 239 NORTH-EAST ZONE 240- 299 SOUTH-EAST ZONE 300- 303h '; NORTH - WEST ZONE 304 - 346 vi MAP OF NIGERIA SHOWING THE SIX GEO-POLITICAL ZONES North East. North Central South West South South South East vii Endnote 1. Address to Presidential Retreat on the Electoral Process and Violence, i h February 2002 STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT CONSOLIDATE D REPORT I BY .I INSTITUTE FOR PEACE AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION Consolidated Report 2 ______== STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSi\1ENT _ LIST OF CONTENTS Title Page List of Contents Executive SUffil11:ary 6 1. Methodology 2. General Findings 3. Specific Findings 4. Conclusions 5. Recommendations Acronyms SECTION ONE: 12 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 1.1 Background to the Report 1.2 Methodology SECTION TWO: 15 THE PHYSICAL AND HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF CONFLICT IN NIGERIA 2.1 History 2.2 Geographical Spread and Categorisation of Conflict 2.3 The Importance of 'Prebendal Politics' SECTION THREE: 20 STRUCTURAL CAUSES OF CONFLICT 3.1' Secnrity-related Manifestations of Conflict 3.1.1 Proliferation of Small Arms 3.1.2 Corruption of law-enforcement agents - Consolidated Report ...... _ 3 - 3.1.3 Vigilante Groups 3.2. Political Manifestations of Conflict 3.2.1 'Political Conflicts' 3.2.2· 'Succession and Dethronement Conflicts' 3.2.3 Territorial Disputes 3.3 Economic Manifestations of Conflict 3.3.0 General . 3.3.1 Poverty and Inequality 3.3.2 Resource Cqmpetition 1: Dividing the benefits from oil 3.3.3 Resource Competition 2: Access to Land 3.3.4 Unequal Development 3.3.5 Market Competition 3,.4 Social Manifestations· of Conflict 3.4.1 'Ethnic and Communal Conflicts' 3.4.2 'Religious Conflicts' 3.4.3 ' Unemployed Youth 3.4.4 Women; 3.4.5 Breakdown ofsocial values . 3.4.6 'Psycho-cultural dispositions' 3.5 Conflict Actors 3.5.1 Security Actors 3.5.2 Political Actors 3.5.3 Economic Actors ~... 3.5.4 . Social Actors 3.5.5 Connecting Actors 3.6 Coq~l,~c.t Dynamics 3.6~1·- Linking, the Causes 3.6.2· Examples _ 4' STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT _ 3~7 Triggers SECTION FOUR: 51 RESPONSES TO CONFLICT 4.1 'Track One~: Government Responses, ' 4.1.1 Security Responses 4; 1.2; Relief Responses' 4.1.3 i \' Po!itical'Responses 4.1.4 Economic Responses 4.1.5 Social Responses 4.1.6 Conclusions 'Track Two': Non-Government Responses 4.2.1 Political Responses 4.2.2 Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) 4.2.3 Business and Labour 4.2.4' Youth" 4.2.5 The Media ,', 4.3 Track Three: International' Organis'ations~ 4.4 Conclusions (Responses) 4.4.1 The Importance of Early Warning Systems 4.4.2 Other Preventive Actions SECTION FIVE: 63 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS 5.1. Gaps in the Literature 5.2. Gaps in the Response 5.3. Defining the problem -Consolidated Report - _ 5 SECTION SIX: 66 RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Addressing the different manifestations of conflict along· the various tracks 6.1.1 Reconlmendations to the Federal Government 6.2 Recommendations to IPCR 6.2.1 The Need to Promote Understanding and Co-operation 6.2.2 The Need for Early Warning and Preventive action . 6.2.3 The Need for Flexibility 6.2.4 Summary of Recommendations to IPCR. BIBLIOGRAPHY 77 ANNEXES 79 Annex 1 Composition of the Research Teams Arinex 2 Technical Advisory Panel: list of participants Annex 3 A Theoretical Model of Conflict Dynamics Annex 4 A Peace-Building Framework for IPCR ________ STRATEGIC CONFLICT ASSESSMENT _ - 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Methodology Strategic Conflict Assessment of Nigeria was carried out by . .. IPCR in collaboration with a group of international donors A.. (DFID, UNDP, USAID and World Bank) between July and October 2002. The work was conducted in two phases. Phase One mapped out the conflicts and made a preliminary analysis of the literature. Phase Two tested and expanded this analysis by fieldwork. The Consolidated Report brings together the findings of eleven reports con~ucted by nearly thirty researchers. 2. General Findings The study has focused sharply on the interaction between resource competition and the corruption of the political system. Out of the forty two years since Independence, Nigeria has experienced thirty years of military dictatorship and during this period political and social values have been deeply undermined. Since 1999 Nigeria has turned towards democracy but this does not mean that conflicts will dissolve or be resolved instantly. Instea4 the immediate effect of democracy, as the Phase Two report concludes, has been to generate more conflict- 'Three years into democratic practice the intense competition for political space has heated up the polity leading to violence, which has continued to threaten the survival of the· democratic process.' Although democracy may allow more conflict to emerge in the short­ ternl, in the long-term it is the only possible solution.