Tasks 8-9: Data Analysis and Case Studies Summary Memo March 30, 2016 Prepared by: Michael Baker International and State Smart Transportation Initiative NOVA TDM Study Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 3 Scanning NOVA for Issues and Opportunities .......................................................................... 3 Common pairs ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Circuity .................................................................................................................................................... 4 Short trips ................................................................................................................................................ 4 Selected links ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Case Studies ................................................................................................................................. 16 1. Tysons Corner ................................................................................................................................... 19 2. George Mason University................................................................................................................. 24 3. Fort Belvoir ....................................................................................................................................... 28 4. Van Dorn Street Metro Station ....................................................................................................... 33 5. Rippon VRE Station ......................................................................................................................... 36 6. Bull Run ............................................................................................................................................. 39 7. Fairfax Center / Fair Oaks Mall...................................................................................................... 42 8. Merrifield .......................................................................................................................................... 45 9. Inova Fairfax Hospital ..................................................................................................................... 48 10. Manassas ......................................................................................................................................... 50 11. Van Dorn Street Metro Station (southern catchment area) ....................................................... 53 12. Inside the Beltway (express transit catchment area) ................................................................... 56 13. Dulles Town Center ........................................................................................................................ 59 14. Bailey’s Crossroads / Seven Corners to Ashton Heights ............................................................. 62 15. Goose Creek Crossing (Ashburn / Belmont) ................................................................................ 64 16. Route 606 (northeast of Dulles) ..................................................................................................... 67 17. Route 606 (west of Dulles) .............................................................................................................. 70 Summary of Costs and Benefits ................................................................................................. 73 Tysons Corner ....................................................................................................................................... 73 George Mason ....................................................................................................................................... 74 Fort Belvoir ........................................................................................................................................... 75 Van Dorn Metro.................................................................................................................................... 76 Rippon VRE .......................................................................................................................................... 77 Bull Run ................................................................................................................................................. 77 Fairfax Center / Fair Oaks Mall.......................................................................................................... 78 Merrifield /Dunn Loring ...................................................................................................................... 79 Inova Fairfax Hospital ......................................................................................................................... 80 Manassas Area ...................................................................................................................................... 80 Van Dorn - South .................................................................................................................................. 81 Inside the Beltway ................................................................................................................................. 82 Dulles Town Center .............................................................................................................................. 83 Bailey’s Crossroads .............................................................................................................................. 83 Goose Creek .......................................................................................................................................... 84 Dulles Area North ................................................................................................................................. 84 Dulles Area West .................................................................................................................................. 85 1 NOVA TDM Study Methodologies .............................................................................................................................. 86 Estimation of Costs ............................................................................................................................... 86 Estimation of Benefits .......................................................................................................................... 91 Traffic Flow Estimates ......................................................................................................................... 92 APPENDIX Cost Detail........................................................................................................ 96 2 NOVA TDM Study Introduction This report summarizes Global Positioning System (GPS) data for the Northern Virginia (NOVA) region that traces actual passenger vehicle trips within and between geographic areas called traffic analysis zones (TAZs). The report highlights areas of opportunity for reducing these trips and describes more than 15 case studies identified using the data. In developing the case studies, we relied on our team’s collective knowledge, reviewed existing plans, projects and documents, and held meetings with stakeholders to solicit feedback. Each case study describes insight gained from the GPS data, existing conditions, opportunities to reduce or shorten personal vehicle trips, cost estimates of taking the recommended actions, and a description of the estimated benefits. This work builds upon three earlier technical memos: General Regional Needs and Existing Approach Summary Assessment of Existing Local and Modal Programs and Plans Best Practices for Managing Transportation Demand and Improving Accessibility The GPS data reflects upwards of 3,425,000 trips each weekday throughout the NOVA region. Of those trips, 1,760,000 (51%) are less than five miles, 819,000 (24%) are less than two miles, and 270,000 (8%) are less than one mile. Approximately 781,000 of the short trips (44%) take place during the AM or PM peak periods, when capacity needs are greatest. Of the 292 roads and corridors we evaluated, short trips account for 10% of daily traffic, on average, and upwards of 42% in some cases. Common travel modeling and project evaluation procedures often do not fully reflect these short trips, particularly those in the lower range (1-2 miles), because they are assumed to make up a much smaller share of trips or because TAZs used in the travel models are too large to ‘capture’ these trips on modeled transportation networks that only carry trips traveling from one TAZ to another. Nonetheless, in such large quantities, these trips add considerably to road capacity demand, yet they also offer opportunities to improve accessibility and system performance through means other than large capacity improvements. These opportunities include conventional transportation demand management (TDM), priced parking, bicycle and pedestrian facilities, small transit enhancements, local street connections and certain changes in land use patterns, which have been shown to encourage mode shifts and reduce the frequency and length of vehicle trips. This report focuses primarily