PCORI Health Care Horizon Scanning System Horizon Scanning Status Report Volume 2, Issue 1 March 2020 Prepared for: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute 1828 L St., NW, Suite 900 Washington, DC 20036 Contract No. MSA-HORIZSCAN-ECRI-ENG-2018.7.12 Prepared by: ECRI Institute 5200 Butler Pike Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462 Investigators: Randy Hulshizer, MA, MS Damian Carlson, MS Christian Cuevas, PhD Andrea Druga, PA-C Marcus Lynch, PhD Misha Mehta, MS Brian Wilkinson, MA Donna Beales, MLIS Jennifer De Lurio, MS Eloise DeHaan, BS Eileen Erinoff, MSLIS Maria Middleton, MPH Diane Robertson, BA Kelley Tipton, MPH Rosemary Walker, MLIS Karen Schoelles, MD, SM Statement of Funding and Purpose This report incorporates data collected during implementation of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) Health Care Horizon Scanning System, operated by ECRI Institute under contract to PCORI, Washington, DC (Contract No. MSA-HORIZSCAN-ECRI-ENG- 2018.7.12). The findings and conclusions in this document are those of the authors, who are responsible for its content. No statement in this report should be construed as an official position of PCORI. An intervention that potentially meets inclusion criteria might not appear in this report simply because the Horizon Scanning System has not yet detected it or it does not yet meet inclusion criteria outlined in the PCORI Health Care Horizon Scanning System: Horizon Scanning Protocol and Operations Manual. Inclusion or absence of interventions in the horizon scanning reports will change over time as new information is collected; therefore, inclusion or absence should not be construed as either an endorsement or rejection of specific interventions. A representative from PCORI served as a contracting officer’s technical representative and provided input during the implementation of the Horizon Scanning System. PCORI does not directly participate in horizon scanning or assessing leads or topics and did not provide opinions regarding potential impact of interventions. Financial Disclosure Statement None of the individuals compiling this information have any affiliations or financial involvement that conflict with the material presented in this report. Public Domain Notice This document is in the public domain and may be used and reprinted without special permission. Citation of the source is appreciated. All statements, findings, and conclusions in this publication are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of PCORI or its Board of Governors. This publication was developed through a contract to support PCORI’s work. Questions or comments may be sent to PCORI at [email protected] or by mail to Suite 900, 1828 L Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036. ©2020 Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute. For more information see www.pcori.org. Suggested citation: Hulshizer R, Carlson D, Cuevas C, et al. PCORI Health Care Horizon Scanning System: 2020 Horizon Scanning Status Report: Volume 2, Issue 1. Washington, DC: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute; March 2020. Prepared by ECRI Institute under Contract No. MSA-HORIZSCAN-ECRI-ENG-2018.7.12. HORIZON SCANNING STATUS REPORT ● MARCH 2020 i Preface The PCORI Health Care Horizon Scanning System (HCHSS) conducts horizon scanning of new and emerging health care technologies and innovations with high potential for disruption to the current standard of care to better inform patient-centered outcomes research investments at PCORI. The HCHSS provides PCORI with a systematic process to identify and monitor technologies and innovations in health care that are in PCORI’s priority areas of interest and to create an inventory of interventions that have the highest potential for disruption to the current standard of care in terms of patient outcomes, health disparities, care delivery, infrastructure, access, and/or costs. It is also a tool for the public to identify information on selected new health care technologies and interventions. Any investigator or funder of research can use the PCORI HCHSS to help select research topics. The health care technologies and innovations of interest for horizon scanning are those that have yet to become part of established health care practices. These interventions are in late stages of research and development or very early phases of adoption, except in the case of new applications of already-diffused technologies. Consistent with the definitions of health care interventions provided by the National Academy of Medicine and the Federal Coordinating Council for Comparative Effectiveness Research, PCORI is interested—at present—primarily in innovations in drugs and biologics, medical devices, and procedures within its selected priority areas of interest for horizon scanning. PCORI may choose, upon future consideration, to expand its focus to include a wider range of interventions (eg, systems innovations). Horizon scanning involves 2 processes. The first is identifying and monitoring new and evolving health care interventions that purportedly hold potential to diagnose, treat, or otherwise manage a disease or condition or to improve care delivery. The second is analyzing the relevant health care context in which these new and evolving interventions would exist to understand their potential for disruption to the standard of care. The goal of the PCORI HCHSS is not to predict future utilization and costs of any health care intervention; rather, the reports are intended to help inform and guide planning and prioritization of research resources. This edition of the Status Report is the first of 4 volumes planned for 2020 and lists topics (ie, interventions intended for a specific use within a specific patient population) that have been identified and are being monitored. Content in this report is current as of March 13, 2020. The reader should be aware that, although forward-looking statements were accurate as of this currency date, no warranty is provided regarding the accuracy of these statements at the time of publication. We welcome comments on this report. Send comments by mail to William Lawrence, MD, MS, Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute, 1828 L St., NW, Suite 900, Washington, DC 20036, or by email to [email protected]. HORIZON SCANNING STATUS REPORT ● MARCH 2020 ii Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 Section 1. Alzheimer’s Disease and Other Dementias: 10 Topics ............................... 5 Table 1.1. Alzheimer’s Disease and Other Dementias Topics Added Since Last Status Report: 2 Topics ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 Table 1.2. Currently Monitored Alzheimer’s Disease and Other Dementias Topics: 8 Topics............. 6 Section 2. Cancer: 84 Topics ..................................................................................... 10 Table 2.1. Cancer Topics Added Since Last Status Report: 10 Topics ................................................... 10 Table 2.2. Currently Monitored Cancer Topics: 70 Topics ...................................................................... 18 Table 2.3. Cancer Topics Archived Since Last Status Report: 4 Topics ................................................. 73 Section 3. Cardiovascular Disease: 28 Topics ........................................................... 76 Table 3.1. Cardiovascular Disease Topics Added Since Last Status Report: 5 Topics ......................... 76 Table 3.2. Currently Monitored Cardiovascular Disease Topics: 22 Topics ......................................... 81 Table 3.3. Topics Archived Since Last Status Report: 1 Topic ................................................................ 98 Section 4. Mental and Behavioral Health: 18 Topics ................................................ 99 Table 4.1. Mental and Behavioral Health Topics Added Since Last Status Report: 3 Topics ............. 99 Table 4.2. Currently Monitored Mental and Behavioral Health Topics: 14 Topics ........................... 102 Table 4.3. Mental and Behavioral Health Topics Archived Since Last Status Report: 1 Topic ........ 114 Section 5. Rare Diseases: 107 Topics ...................................................................... 115 Table 5.1. Rare Disease Topics Added Since Last Status Report: 14 Topics ...................................... 115 Table 5.2. Currently Monitored Rare Disease Topics: 89 Topics ........................................................ 127 Table 5.3. Rare Disease Topics Archived Since Last Status Report: 4 Topics .................................... 208 Section 6. Potentially Disruptive Trends: 28 Trends .............................................. 212 Table 6.1. Trends Added Since Last Status Report: 6 Trends .............................................................. 212 Table 6.2. Currently Monitored Trends: 22 Trends .............................................................................. 216 Appendix. Abbreviations and Acronyms ................................................................ 230 HORIZON SCANNING STATUS REPORT ● MARCH 2020 iii Introduction The PCORI Health Care Horizon Scanning System (HCHSS) identifies and monitors topics (ie, interventions intended for a specific use within a specific patient population) likely to be available for clinical use (ie, outside the research environment) within 3 years. For interventions subject