Pathways: Connecting Canada’s Transportation System to the World Volume 2 — Appendices © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Transport 2012. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior written permission of the Department of Transport, Canada. Please contact the Civil Aviation Communications Centre at 1 800 305-2059 (EST) for assistance. The information in this publication is to be considered solely as a guide and should not be quoted as or considered to be a legal authority. It may become obsolete in whole or in part at any time without notice. ISSN T22-216/2015E-PDF Catalogue No. 978-0-660-03926-8 TP 15316E (12/2015) TC-1005770 Publié aussi en français sous le titre : Parcours : Brancher le système de transport du Canada au reste du monde – Annexes Canada Transportation Act Review Pathways: Connecting Canada’s Transportation System to the World – Appendices Issued also in French under title : Parcours : Brancher le système de transport du Canada au reste du monde – Annexes Volume Two — Appendices 3 Appendix A: Economic Context 21 Appendix B: Governance 42 Appendix C: Linking Trade and Transportation 59 Appendix D: The North 71 Appendix E: Innovation 77 Appendix F: Climate Change 89 Appendix G: Access and Accessibility 103 Appendix H: Freight Rail 115 Appendix I: Transport of Grain 132 Appendix J: Passenger Rail 140 Appendix K: Air Transport 175 Appendix L: Marine Transport 200 Appendix M: Canadian Transportation Agency 204 Appendix N: Mandate and Terms of Reference 207 Appendix O: Submissions and Consultations 215 Appendix P: The Team 217 Appendix Q: Glossary Appendix A Economic Context 3 Historically, population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have been shown to be strongly linked to growth rates for passenger and freight transport volumes, and these indicators are used as the basic drivers when forecasting aggregate demand for transportation. For population data, the Canada Transportation Act Review has relied on the United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects (2015 Revision).1 For economic data, the CTA Review drew heavily on the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook and OECD.stat extracts,2 and International Transport Forum (ITF) Transport Outlook 2015,3 with other sources as noted. Population Growth With only a few exceptions, Canada’s population growth rate has been declining steadily in the past 60 years, since the peak of the post-World War II Baby Boom. Overall, world population growth has also been declining since it peaked soon after, at just over 2 per­ cent between 1965 and 1970. Even as the growth rate has slowed, both the total Canadian and world populations have more than doubled since 1960. In the next 30 years, the UN forecasts that the growth rate of the world’s population will continue to slow, to 0.6 per­ cent per year, a rate roughly half of what it is today, and one third of what it was 30 years ago. The total population will continue to climb, to about 9.7 billion inhabitants by 2050 (plus or minus approximately 1 billion, in the high and low variants of the forecast). FIGURE 1 – 11,000 ACTUAL AND FORECAST WORLD POPULATION, 10,000 1950-2050 (MILLIONS)4 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Actual Popula6on (M) Forecast Popula6on Medium variant (M) Forecast Popula6on Low variant (M) Forecast Popula6on High variant (M) While overall population growth is levelling off, the world’s cities will see staggering growth rates, as the global migration towards urban areas will far outpace overall growth.5 The proportion of the world’s population living in cities will increase from 54 percent to 66 per­ cent by 2045; with the largest urban growth expected in India (over 404 million new urban dwellers), China (nearly 300 million new urban dwellers) and Nigeria (over 200 million new urban dwellers.6 New infrastructure will be needed to feed, house and connect these new urban residents in ways that rural populations do not require, driving demand for increased production in agriculture (as well as fertilizer), concrete, steel, and other commodities. in­ frastructure will be needed to feed, house and connect these new urban residents in ways that rural populations do not require, driving demand for increased production in agricul­ ture (as well as fertilizer), concrete, steel, and other commodities. 4 7,000 FIGURE 2 – ACTUAL AND FORECAST 6,000 URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS OF THE 5,000 WORLD, 1950-20507 (MILLIONS) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 World Urban Popula9on (M) World Rural Popula9on (M) Thirty years ago, there were 10 mega cities with populations over 10 million, today there are 28 (more than half of which are in Asia), and thirty years from now, there will be more than 40 mega cities. Cities are nodes of wealth-creation that are competing globally, and mobility and connectivity are critical success factors. While the growth in largest cities that is illustrated in the UN World Urbanization Prospects maps (Figures 3 and 4, below) will be impressive, the UN forecasts that most new urban dwellers will actually inhabit cities of 500,000 or fewer. The movement of the majority of humanity from a subsistence-based rural life to an urban one will drive new demand for transportation, as most basic necessities must be “imported” into cities, rather than be sourced locally. As a result, key success factors will include the develop­ ment and maintenance of high-quality, efficient and uncongested gateways such as ports and airports connected seamlessly to corridors, whether physical (rail and highways), conceptual (air and marine carrier lines) and virtual (networks of communications, information technology, logistics, finance, and other trade supporting services). These are fundamental for the mobility and exchange of people, goods, services and ideas within a metropolitan region, and connect­ ing to its hinterland and other global cities. 5 FIGURE 3 – UNITED NATIONS MAP OF PERCENTAGE URBAN AND URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS 8 BY SIZE CLASS, 2014 Percentage Urban City Population FIGURE 4 – UNITED NATIONS MAP OF PERCENTAGE URBAN AND URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS 9 BY SIZE CLASS, 2030 Percentage Urban City Population Data source: World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision • The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the map do not imply official endorsement of acceptance by the United Nations. • Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. • The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. • Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. 6 Over the last thirty years, Canada’s population forecast followed the global trend, with the annual growth rate slowing from about 1.4 percent in 1985, to 1 percent today. The forward forecasts are also similar, with the growth rate dropping to 0.5 percent over the next 30 years. This growth rate includes immigration. Without immigration Canada’s total population would be shrinking, as it already is in some specific regions of the country. According to the UN forecasts, the total population will reach an estimated 44 million by 2050, (plus or minus approximately 4 million, in the high and low variants of the forecast). FIGURE 5 – 50 ACTUAL AND FORECAST 45 CANADIAN POPULATION, 10 1950-2050 (MILLIONS) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Actual Popula5on (M) Forecast Popula5on Medium variant (M) Forecast Popula5on Low variant (M) Forecast Popula5on High variant (M) Economic Growth Since the 2008-09 economic downturn, growth in much of the world remains slow, par­ ticularly in advanced economies. Thirty years ago, the G-7 economies of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and United States accounted for approximately one half of global GDP, today their share has declined one third (in constant Purchasing Power Parity—PPP—terms), as world GDP has grown as fast, or faster, than the average for the G-7 countries in every year since 1990.11 See Figure 6, below. 100,000 6.0 FIGURE 6 – 90,000 COMPARISON OF WORLD 4.0 80,000 AND G-7 GDP (VOLUME AT CONSTANT PPP AND ANNUAL 70,000 2.0 12 GROWTH RATES), 1979-2014 60,000 50,000 0.0 Percent US$ Billion 40,000 -2.0 30,000 20,000 -4.0 10,000 0 -6.0 1979* 1984* 1989* 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 G-7 GDP Rest of the World GDP World GDP Growth Rate Average G-7 Growth Rate 7 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1994 0 1995 1996 1990 1997 1991 1998 1992 1999 1993 2000 1994 2001 1995 2002 1996 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 2003 1997 2004 1998 0 2005 1999 1990 2006 2000 1991 2007 2001 1992 2008 2002 1993 2009 2003 1994 2010 2004 2011 1995 GDP per capita in USA 2005 PPPs US Dollars 2005 1996 2012 2006 1997 2013 2007 1998 2014 2008 1999 2015 2009 2000 2016 2010 2001 2017 2011 GDP per capita in USA 2005 PPPs US Dollars 2002 2018 2012 2003 2019 2013 2004 2020 2014 2005 2021 2015 2006 2022 2016 2007 2023 2017 2008 2024 2018 2009 2025 2019 2010 2026 2020 2011 2027 2021 GDP per capita in USA 2005 PPPs US Dollars 2012 2028 2022 2013 2029 2023 2014 2030 2024 2015 2031 2025 8 2016 1990-2045 FOR SELEC C AND 7 FIGURE 2032 2026 APITA 2017 2033 2027 2018 FOREC 2034 2028 2019 (US 2035 2029 2036 2020 – 2030 T 15 OECDA $ 2005 $ AST C 2021 2037 2031 2022 OUNTRIES, 2038 2032 2023 GDPPER 2039 2033 PPP) 2024 CTUAL 2040 2034 2025 2041 2035 2026 2042 2036 2027 2043 2037 2028 2044 2038 2045 2029 growth inGDP.